WaPo: GOP Has 94.37% Chance of Holding On to #GASEN

May 6, 2014 8:45 am

by Jon Richards · 0 comments

In contrast to some recent picks by political prognosticators, the Washington Post is more optimistic about the Republicans’ chances of holding on to Georgia’s Senate seat, currently held by Saxby Chambliss.

The Post is using election modeling it’s calling Election Lab. which predicts the GOP has an 82% chance of winning control of the Senate in November, likely with a 53-47 majority.

The 94.37% chance of a GOP Senate win predicted by the Post model may be a reflection of recent polling, which indicates the candidates remaining in the expected runoff will not be named Broun, Gardner, Gingrey or Grayson. Other factors mentioned in the Post story include the historical tendency of the President’s party to lose ground in the 6th year of a presidency and current economic conditions.

In the House, the model predicts a gain of GOP seats to 240, a gain of seven. In addition to predicting the results of the Georgia Senate race, they also prognosticate on what will happen in the Georgia House races. Seats uncontested by the other party, and therefore given 100% chance of winning include the Third District – (Westmoreland), Fourth District – (Johnson), Fifth District – (Lewis), Eighth District – (Austin Scott), and 14th District – (Graves).

For some reason, the 11th District seat left open by Phil Gingrey’s departure for the Senate race is rated 96% Republican, despite no Democratic qualified candidates, and the 13th District seat held by David Scott is only 99.7% sure of being held in Democratic hands despite no GOP competition. In Doug Collins’s Ninth District, Democratic candidate David Vogel is given no chance of winning, with the GOP candidate getting a 100% chance of holding the seat.

In contested Congressional Races, Jack Kingston’s Savannah based 1st District gets an 85% chance of a GOP hold. In the 2nd District, where Sanford Bishop is being challenged by two Republicans, the incumbent wins 97% of the time. 7th District Congressman Rob Woodall has the best odds of holding on to his seat at 99.8%, compared to Tom Price in the 6th, with 99.6% and the open 10th District seat at only 93%.

In the seat held by the last white Democrat in the South, John Barrow has a 66% chance of continuing to represent the 12th district.

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