New Senate Poll: Handel is Catching Up

May 1, 2014 12:17 pm

by Eric The Younger · 41 comments

A new Fox 5/Insider Advantage/Morris News Service poll has been released for the Republican Senate Primary.

Here’s the breakdown of the race:

Perdue: 22%
Handel: 21%
Kingston: 17%
Broun: 14%
Gingrey: 12%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 11%

Karen Handel is now in a statistical tie for first with Perdue. Looks like the momentum is really headed in her direction.

For the stats folks out there the MoE is +/- 3.5 with a CI of 95%. The sample was taken over April 27-29 and included 737 likely voters. The sample was also weighted for age, gender, and race. I do not know if it was also weighted for geography or what the weights actually are.

TheEiger May 1, 2014 at 12:31 pm

Oh oh, somebody is just now realizing that their ads with a POS car are terrible.

SingingLawyer May 1, 2014 at 12:42 pm

“Kingston has been losing metro-Atlanta female support with his ‘folksy’ TV ads for weeks.”

http://www.myfoxatlanta.com/story/25401901/poll-handel-moves-to-2nd-place-kingston-slips-deal-headed-for-big-win#.U2JttMD3SK4.twitter

I am shocked, SHOCKED, to learn that women don’t base their votes on which millionaire drives the oldest car. Maybe those Cool Whip tub ads will move the dial…

TheEiger May 1, 2014 at 12:49 pm

What is more embarrassing? Spending millions of dollars on ads with your old car in it and slipping into third place or being statistically tied with Paul Broun?

Eric The Younger May 1, 2014 at 1:10 pm

I would have to say being tied with Paul Broun.

blakeage80 May 1, 2014 at 3:03 pm

Paul Broun has voted exactly the way he said he would and has been winning elections. What is your problem with sending him to represent the entire state? Has he ever lied about how he would vote? Been caught in a big scandal? Could you ever accuse him of ‘playing politics’ at the expense of important issues? NO! He would be a very good Senator for this state. He would be part of a very conservative coalition of Senators. It is a coalition in which our current senators can’t be accused of being part. Purdue, Kingston and Gingrey certainly won’t side with the people of Georgia if it is inconvenient for them politically. Paul Broun has been a fine Congressman and not the embarrassment you seem to think he is. I’d be proud to say he represents us in The Senate chamber.

IndyPendant May 1, 2014 at 4:11 pm

You haven’t been watching Cosmos, have you?

Neither has Paul Broun.

Paul Broun is an embarrassment. Maybe not to you, but to rational human beings.

Romegaguy May 2, 2014 at 11:47 am

Broun is a Doctor that has no hospital privileges. Ever wonder why?

Noway May 1, 2014 at 4:58 pm

Blake, Broun is the biggest liar of them all. Here is a doctor, a well educated scientist, if you will. But, he gets up in front of bunch of potential voters and for some reason he has to pander to this group by saying he rejects evolution and on top of that, Evolution is from the “Pits of Haillllllllllllllllllll…”. The only thing he could have conceivably hoped to gain was approval from a group he perceived as being stupid enough to like those comments. Here is a man who will literally say any-damn-thing to get elected. It’s disgusting…

seenbetrdayz May 3, 2014 at 4:22 pm

I don’t really care if he thinks evolution is caused by Martians, if he votes to keep spending under control, he’s far more rational than 99% of the folks we have in D.C., including his predecessor.

John Konop May 1, 2014 at 7:59 pm

Blake,

Do you agree with Broun on evolution, why or why not?

blakeage80 May 2, 2014 at 9:21 am

How is Rep. Broun’s view on evolution related to what most Americans say are the important issues? Below is a link that tells you that economic issues are going to be the biggest factor by a large margin for both Democrats and Republicans. On these issues, he believes in not spending more than we have and cutting wasteful spending. He always asks, “Can we afford it?” Before he casts his vote. His statement concerning evolution express his beliefs and at least he is honest about who he is. Guess what? He’s won elections being honest. So, I ask again, what is your problem with Paul Broun.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/poll-what-will-be-the-most-important-issue-for-your-party-in-the-2014-elections-20130725

Noway May 2, 2014 at 10:07 am

Broun is a pandering sleeze, who is obviously too smart to actually believe the drivel he spewed about Evolution. That’s my problem with him, I’m unsure if John has any problems with him at all. Blake, what is your opinion on his Pits of Hell comment? Do tell….

blakeage80 May 2, 2014 at 11:01 am

You must not know Broun at all. If you did, you’d understand that he is a very devoted Christian. So, yes, he does believe his statement about the theory of evolution. What is your name calling supposed to accomplish here?

Noway May 2, 2014 at 11:10 am

So, you’re telling me that your bestest buddy, Paul Broun, who has been educated as a doctor, actually believes that the theory of evoution is completely bogus, without scientific merit? For example, how did the modern day versions of various species of animals get to become the modern-day versions of themselves? Are you saying the good doctor does not believe in any form whatsoever of development and change (gasp…evolution…) of living things over the course of the last 4.5 billion years? Well, of course you are, Blake, because Broun, who is a devout Christian, ‘bleves that there ain’t been no dinosaurs, no T-Rexs, no Triceratops or no Pterdactyls, ’cause the earth is only 6,500 years old!!! Sorry for my mistake… Them there din-0-saur fossils are a trick, places there in the ground by God about 6,499 years ago!!!!

John Konop May 2, 2014 at 3:25 pm

Great comment all should read! You are always smart and entertaining! I am sure after a few drinks it only gets better….Please keep it up…

xdog May 2, 2014 at 11:13 am

He’s an MD too and in his ‘lies straight from the pit of hell’ remarks, he included embryology, right after evolution and before the big bang. If he’s sincere, how does that gibe with his medical degree? Or his brain for that matter?

Will Durant May 2, 2014 at 11:17 am

Where does he stand on Gravitational Theory? Creation myths from much larger cultures than the rather small tribe in the Middle East?

But more important to me is to elect a lawmaker who knows that our laws are based in the English Common Law, not Judeo-Christian Law.

Noway May 2, 2014 at 11:30 am

Hey, Blake, the next time you and your devout doctor buddy are together with your hands plunged elbow-deep in the viper box, ask the idiot doctor if he’s ever prescribed antibiotics. And if he has, ask him his theory about the increasing problems with super bugs (that would be bacteria) that are increasingly resistant to antibiotics. The problems exist because the bacteria are changing (evolving) to become resistant to traditional meds. OH MY GODDDDD!!! Evolution right before our eyes!!!!! It’s trick of Satan, I tell you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

John Konop May 2, 2014 at 3:27 pm

In fairness the super bug is a dance, and he could be against dancing…

John Konop May 1, 2014 at 1:42 pm

I think the Erick Erickson endorsement was a key factor…

Doug Deal May 1, 2014 at 7:46 pm

So does Erick.

DrGonzo May 1, 2014 at 3:45 pm

Perdue’s ads are oversaturated, Kingston’s ads are just… dumb, and Broun and Gingrey are just invisible. But what really helped was the Perdue foot-in-mouth moment; Karen’s team captalized on that very effectively, and it helped them build up momentum to the Palin and Brewer visits. Erickson endorsing her (which I honestly thought he’d stay ‘officially’ neutral during the primary, I’m kind of shocked he spoke out) just helped continue that momentum, and this poll is now getting her free press all over the state (stories on it in Savannah Morning News, Columbus Ledger-Enquirer, Athens B-H that I’ve seen so far, and you’re going to get 5pm news on it as well in most of those areas).

It’s going to be Perdue v. Handel in the runoff. The question is how much establishment/Chamber of Commerce money will start flowing in for attack ads against Karen, and will they be effective? We shall see.

IndyPendant May 1, 2014 at 4:11 pm

Nunn(sic) of the above!

Bloodhound May 1, 2014 at 4:17 pm

You mean Ms. Martin?

northside101 May 1, 2014 at 4:27 pm

You have to wonder if there is room in the runoff for two South Georgia candidates–Kingston and Perdue—given that 60 percent or more of the GOP primary vote is likely to be cast north of Interstate 20—places like Cherokee and Forsyth, north Fulton and North DeKalb, Cobb and Gwinnett. Kingston has never represented anything close to Atlanta (closest he has represented to Atlanta was parts of Houston County under the 2001 Roy Barnes gerrymander), thus he had to start his TV campaign earlier than say Gingrey or Handel (of course, you really have to look hard to see a Handel ad on network TV these days). Handel perhaps still has a fairly large base of support from her 2010 run for governor, when in the first primary she rolled up about 232,00o votes statewide. She’ll obviously need to do well especially in Tom Price’s 6th Cong Dist (East Cobb, North Fulton and North DeKalb) to make the runoff.

As for Blakeage 80 clearly being disgruntled that neither Chambliss nor Isakson is part of the “very conservative” coalition of senators, well, this ain’t Alabama, Wyoming or Utah. Romney got just 53 percent in the state last time (his second worst showing among the 24 states he carried, edging out the 50+ he got in North Carolina). Obama got a shade over 45 with hardly any effort in the state. Contrary to his wishes, Georgia is not a “very conservative” state—voting shows it has been mixed on various issues of the day. Way back in 1992, the state voted for the lottery (probably not something Dr. Broun would approve of even today). True, the ban on gay marriage passed easily in 2004 (76% here, running well ahead of President GW Bush who got 58 here), and in 2012 GOP primary voters gave nearly 2-1 approval for “Personhood”—while at the same time narrowly supporting casino gambling. And look at the ease with which Sunday (retail) alcohol sales passed in 2011 and 2012 (once teetotaling Baptist Sonny Perdue left the scene) in GOP areas like Sandy Springs and Dunwoody. It would not be out of the question for Nunn to win if the GOP candidate is perceived to be another Todd Akin for instance…

A Broun win in the runoff is unlikely as it would contradict Georgia GOP primary voting history—namely that the most conservative (notice I said MOST conservative, not just A conservative candidate) often does not prevail. Go back to 1988 in the presidential primary when TV preacher Pat Robertson was thought to have strength—and who finished first in our primary? None other than Connecticut-born, Episcopalian George Bush. In 1992, Pat Buchanan took his cultural war to Georgia against an embattled Bush, and who won? Bush by nearly 2-1. Buchanan tried again in 1996 to no avail—the establishment’s choice Bob Dole won. In 2004, Johnny Isakson was portrayed by Mac Collins and Herman Cain as being too moderate for Georgia (Isakson couldn’t embrace the Georgia Right to Life crowd—no allowance for abortions in cases of rape or incest). Think we know who won that contest. Two years later came the Christian Coalition’s Ralph Reed—and he lost by double digits to Casey Cagle. Of the four major Republicans running for governor in 2010,–Deal, Handel, Eric Johnson and Oxendine—Oxendine was perceived to be the most conservative. Oops, he finished fourth…-

Short of it, what you likely are seeing is a growing, expanding GOP primary electorate that is not as conservative as Blakeage 80 thinks it is—and that poses problems for Broun in a runoff in places like Cobb, North Fulton, Forsyth, DeKalb and Savannah/St. Simons on the coast, especially if his message boils down to evolution being from “you know where”, abortion should be illegal in cases of rape and incest…you get the idea.

xdog May 1, 2014 at 7:20 pm

“Kingston has never represented anything close to Atlanta”

He has strong ties to the Athens area and has raised a lot of money among the donor class there and in Lake Oconee. fwiw, I live 10 miles from Athens and have seen more of his signs than his opps by a large factor.

blakeage80 May 2, 2014 at 9:35 am

Northside101, conventional wisdom has been against Paul Broun since he ran to replace Charlie Norwood. So, I believe your points, though valid especially in a statewide context, may not be as airtight as you’d like. Broun’s campaign does not “boil down” to a single quote about evolution. He is far more disciplined than that crack pot from Missouri. There is no comparison. Believing that spontaneous evolution is not true is not that outlandish a view. The man is rock solid on his economic views, which I’ve pointed out elsewhere in this thread, are the biggest issue of these midterms.

Will Durant May 2, 2014 at 10:28 am

Because there are less of them, Senators can’t get away with casting votes merely to posture as often as Congressmen. An effective Senator for his electorate, no matter how much extremists want to believe otherwise, must be able to compromise or the result is totally ineffectual, both for their constituents and the country as a whole. A “rock solid” Senator is as effective as a solid rock.

F. Underwood May 3, 2014 at 6:48 pm

+1 last sentence.

Noway May 1, 2014 at 5:07 pm

Be prepared for Broun to do much better than we all see at the moment. Dems will cross over by the busload to “Majette” him into the runoff

TheEiger May 1, 2014 at 5:12 pm

At this rate, he is going to need a good 70,000 people to cross over. Good luck with that. Not going to happen. That would take a level of organization that the Dems don’t have in the state of Georgia.

xdog May 1, 2014 at 7:14 pm

I know a lot of donks who would welcome Broun as the goper opponent but I don’t know any of them who’ll vote for him in the primary.

Dave Bearse May 2, 2014 at 9:09 am

What candidate(s) will the Dems that you know be voting for in the GOP primary?

xdog May 2, 2014 at 10:16 am

I know some donks who think Kingston is a reasonable choice. I’ve heard one or two speak well of Handel based on her Komen tenure. That’s about it.

Of course once they get in the voting booth, who knows? Due to the moribund donk party, a lot of us non-gopers are forced to vote in the goper primary to determine county commissioners, for example. That’s probably what I’ll do. ftr, I won’t vote for Broun. Maybe I’ll write in Charles Darwin again.

Dave Bearse May 3, 2014 at 5:13 pm

My selecting a GOP primary ballot is a no-brainer, particularly where I live in DeKalb.

There are only four competitive statewide races on the Dem ballot. Nunn is the foregone Senate primary winner, and it’s unlikely that a Dem will even come close in one among SoS, Ins Comm or State Sch Super races in Nov, especially given the GOP candidates for other than State Sch Super are unchallenged incumbents. To top it off, there’s no runoff action except for State Sch Super.

On the GOP side there are likewise four competitive races, Senate, Gov, State Sch Super and PSC-6. There will be runoffs for Senate, which has an outside chance of being a competitive race in Nov, and also State Sch Super, plus the added sweetener of voting against consumer advocate Bubba McDonald, even if it’s meaningless.

Locally the only competitive races on my Dem ballot would be Senate 40 and Co. Comm Super District 7. Senate 40 is solidly GOP, and Stan Watson is the District 7 incumbent—in other words very likely throwaway votes either way I vote.

Not much different locally on the GOP side. The only competitive race is the aforementioned Senate 40. Incumbent Fran Millar should be a shoo in—likewise a throwaway vote.

And no runoff action on either local primary ballot.

northside101 May 2, 2014 at 8:48 am

xdog’s point that Kingston has ties to the Athens area doesn’t negate my point that nonetheless, he still hasn’t represented any territory close to Atlanta. That of course does not make him disqualified to be our senator, but my point is that he has to work a lot harder to get votes in densely-populated north Georgia. It is interesting that he says he sees more Kingston signs in his area than Broun ones—wonder if many CD 10 voters, even Republicans, glad to see Brouns’s congressional career come to an end? To make the runoff, Kingston will have to outpace the 137,000 votes fellow Savannah resident Eric Johnson got in his 2010 gubernatorial bid (he finished third behind Deal and Handel, thus not making the runoff).

xdog May 2, 2014 at 10:28 am

I agree that Kingston has a tough row to hoe to pull well in NGA. But despite his Savannah roots Johnson fell short of the runoff by less than 3 points, and I think Kingston’s campaign is higher-powered than that. Today, I think he makes the runoff.

northside101 May 2, 2014 at 1:01 pm

xdog, I agree that Kingston has a much broader geographic base than Eric (Johnson) did, taking in almost all of southeast Georgia (east of 75 and south of 16) and some points beyond, to Moultrie in southwest Georgia to Statesboro just north of 16. Johnson was little known outside the Savannah area in terms of the voters (as opposed to the “Capitol crowd” of lobbyists and politicos). One question is whether Perdue cuts much into Kingston’s south Georgia base—by all accounts Kingston wins below the Gnat Line, and the more he gets there, the less he needs in north Georgia to make the runoff.

Back to Broun for blakeage 80—his election to Congress in 2007 was a fluke (special election from death of Charlie Norwood), thanks to implosion of Jim Whitehead and Democratic mischief (reports that Democrats were called to cross over for Broun in this nonpartisan runoff). Of course he solidified his control with incumbency in 2008 and beyond. And just what big counties would he carry in a runoff? Fulton and DeKalb, which voted for Mitt Romney in the presidential primary two years ago (and which gave few votes to Broun’s soulmate, Rick Santorum)? Cobb, which backed Isakson in the 1996 runoff against Millner (even though Isakson was pro-choice at that time)? Rural Georgia, where Broun may have more appeal, isn’t enough to win a statewide GOP runoff.

blakeage80 May 2, 2014 at 3:22 pm

He’s won 3 elections. That is no fluke. You also keep bringing up issues that don’t currently concern people as much as the state of the economy and the repeal of the ACA. It is his stances on these issues and the fact that he is known as an honest person that will win him more votes than conventional wisdom allows. The man went to Washington and 100% of the time voted as he said he would in his campaigns. That is attractive to voters who want to know what kind of person they are sending to Washington. That’s real hard to say about the rest of the field who either vote in politically convenient manner or haven’t been there yet. The fact that Cobb county voted for a pro-choice/pro-life flip flopper 18yrs ago has little to no bearing on this current primary. Also, there are many factors, such as national momentum, to presidential primaries that make them substantially different than senate races. I think you’ll find all the stumping Broun has been doing in the suburbs of Atlanta will pay off.

Will Durant May 4, 2014 at 9:27 am

We agree that he will win “more votes than conventional wisdom allows”. Lets review the honesty thing just a bit. Was he honest in proclaiming that then President-elect Obama was trying to establish the foundations for Marxist dictatorships by his attempt to invoke Kennedy and calling for a civilian service corps in war ravaged areas? Comparing this corps to the beginnings of Nazi Germany and the USSR, an interesting juxtaposition to say the least. Or was it out of ignorance that President Bush had already setup this organization two years earlier? Or his apology announced on local radio afterward? Or his denial of any apology to the AJC?

But the biggest problem I find with the Congressman in his quest to become a lawmaker in the country’s highest legislative body, is either a lack of honesty for sake of pandering or out of ignorance, his statements in the Gainesville debate this year. He gave his 4 C’s and numbered them off but 3 and 4 don’t count because 1 and 2 cancelled each other out. Firstly, he won’t vote for legislation that is unconstitutional. “The second, does it fit the Judeo-Christian biblical principles our country was founded upon?”

Now you can’t claim to be a “Constitutionalist” and violate the Establishment Clause of the First Amendment with your very next statement. Especially when the second statement is patently false. John Adams and Thomas Jefferson were at times both political opponents and friends. Adams a professed devout Christian, Jefferson had his own religion, but both were in complete agreement that “As the Government of the United States of America is not, in any sense, founded on the Christian religion….” stated by then President John Adams. Or Thomas Jefferson’s statement that “Christianity neither is, nor ever was a part of the common law.”

So whether it was ignorance or falsehood matters not to me. A person making statements like that cannot in good conscience be voted into the highest legislative body in the land.

saltycracker May 4, 2014 at 9:30 am

“Foot in mouth moment for Perdue ?”
It might be nice for a US Senator to have some basic minimum qualifications or expectations like
US citizen, GA resident, non-felon, taxes paid, four year undergraduate degree from an accredited college. Most skilled government job applications require most of those.

But why not run with self made and winning personality for all professionals and tradesmen ? Doctors, lawyers, plumbers, dentists, electrician, engineer, broker…….?
And eliminate the wasted public money on universities and licensing.

Comments on this entry are closed.