Charlie Cook Moves Georgia Senate Race To “Toss Up”

March 19, 2014 11:20 am

by Charlie · 3 comments

OK Georgia Republicans, time to decide if you want to win or not, because national pundits are suggesting this race can no longer be taken for granted.  So warns Charlie Cook in his Cook Political Report:

These ratings change aren’t all bad for Democrats. The open seat in Georgia moves to the Toss Up column from Lean Republican. Michelle Nunn is proving to be perhaps the best Democratic challenger of the cycle. Republicans, meanwhile, are mired in a crowded primary that seems destined to produce a run off. As a result, Republicans won’t have a nominee until late July. Moreover, this may be the one race where the threat of nominating a candidate who is generally unelectable in a statewide general election is very real.

Shorter Cook to Republicans:  Choose wisely.

 

griftdrift March 19, 2014 at 11:58 am

Cook is one of the best analysts around. Anyone of any party or stripe ignores him at their peril. Just sayin.

Ed March 19, 2014 at 12:12 pm

Republicans will win by at least 5.3 points.

Doug Deal March 19, 2014 at 12:58 pm

Predictions made this far out are meaningless. Predictions in March are ancient history by May. Predictions in May are ancient history by August. Predictions in August are meaningless by October.

No one remembers or analyzes long term predictions, but they sure do give people virtual ink for making eye catching statements. The underlying data is worthless. Polls do not mean much when you pit one well known last name, virtually unassailed in any meaningful way versus 7 people fighting each other for opposing slot. So he has no basis to make this call and his reputation would not suffer from being wrong. Not a state that lends itself to accuracy.

It may well be true, but but it would be nothing more than the coincidence that a coin flip could predict the race. Wait until May 21 or the day after the runoff before making news out of things like this.

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