Michelle Nunn Leads GOP Field In New Poll

January 29, 2014 16:18 pm

by Jon Richards · 14 comments

In a new poll conducted by Public Policy Polling and released by liberal-leaning Americans United for Change, Democratic Senate candidate Michelle Nunn leads four of her potential Republican opponents by a slight margin. The poll also shows strong support for a raise in the minimum wage

In head to head contests, Nunn leads Paul Broun by a 42% to 41% margin, with 17% undecided. She is ahead of Phil Gingrey, 45%-41% with 14% undecided, Karen Handel 44%-40%, with 16% undecided, and Jack Kingston 44%-42% with 14% undecided.

Georgians support raising the minimum wage to $10 an hour by a 54%-37% margin, with 9% undecided. If a voter knew that the Republican candidate for Senate opposed an increase in the minimum wage, 30% would be more likely to support that candidate, 42% would be less likely, and for 23%, it wouldn’t make any difference. 5% were not sure. 66% of those polled agree with the statement, “Someone who works full-time should be paid enough to keep them out of poverty,” while 20% disagreed, and 14% were not sure.

The automated telephone poll of 640 voters has a 3.9% margin of error.

The demographics behind any poll reflect the pollster’s view of what the electorate will be like in November, when the actual election takes place. This one assumes 53% are female and Democrats and Republicans will each make up 38% percent of voters, while 24% are independents. 66% are white, 27% are African-American, and 7% are some other race. Those polled skew older, with 23% being over 65, 46% between 46 and 65, 22% between 30 and 45, and only 9% being under 30.

2014 will be a non-Presidential election, like 2010 was. In 2010, 55% of the voters were female, while 45% were male. 69% were white, 29 were African American and 2% were another race. And 9% were under 30, 25% were 30-45, 47% were between 46-and 65, and 23% were over 65.

What you can’t compare to 2010 is the Democrat – Republican – Independent split. You tell us if it’s fair to say that in Georgia, Ds and Rs are on equal footing, and 24% are independents.

peachpundit (@peachpundit) January 29, 2014 at 4:18 pm

New post: Michelle Nunn Leads GOP Field In New Poll http://t.co/fDj2J6dNS1 #gapol

Ken January 29, 2014 at 4:22 pm

Anyone from PPP like to make a wager on the outcome of the US Senate race? I’m pretty certain that despite your poll results, the next US Senator from Georgia will be a Republican.

2g Strategies (@2gstrategies) January 29, 2014 at 5:32 pm

From @peachpundit Michelle Nunn Leads GOP Field In New Poll – In a new poll conducted by Public Policy Polling and… http://t.co/ww0OL7Jl49

AtticusFinch January 29, 2014 at 7:02 pm

PPP is perhaps better known for its accuracy than its ethics. The statistical wonder boy Nate Silver took them to task on a recent poll they decided not release to the public when they purportedly lacked confidence in the results (or the results did not match their partisan views). Turns out the poll was spot on. The Colorado democrat was surprisingly recalled in a heavily democratic district. To read the twitter war between Silver and PPP go here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/09/11/nate-silver-vs-public-policy-polling/

Dave Bearse January 29, 2014 at 7:17 pm

This snapshot is that GOP voters will vote GOP no matter the GOP candidate, and that independents yet don’t care who the GOP candidate is.

Jon Lester January 30, 2014 at 9:15 am

This poll may well be accurate for its moment in time, but we don’t know who the GOP nominee will be, what we’ll hear from Ms. Nunn between now and the general election, or how many people will begin to perceive her style as something like waffling.

SmyrnaModerate January 30, 2014 at 9:20 am

the cross tabs show that the republican candidate is only getting support in the 70′s from Republicans (depending on which head to head match up it is) which is what has Nunn in the lead. Thats fairly normal for polling during this part of the cycle because a Republican who supports candidate A will say that if candidate B wins the primary they will vote for the democrat. Of course, once election day comes they still vote for the republican. Once we get past the primary season and republicans get behind a single candidate, Nunn most certainly won’t be in the lead. So the poll is good for Nunn’s fundraising now and it might be a close race come November but there is no way that if the election were actually held today Nunn would win.

@AU4Change January 30, 2014 at 9:52 am

Michelle Nunn Leads GOP Field In New Poll
http://t.co/KPo9LjjSPg via @peachpundit …

Doug Deal January 30, 2014 at 11:57 am

You cannot compare one party with completive primaries with another that is having a coronation in a poll. Each of the Republican candidates has 7 theoretical and 4-5 real opponents who have real supporters. Those supporters are somewhat less likely to name a candidate they oppose in a primary as someone they would vote for in November. Run this poll in October and the GOP candidate will easily be 10 points higher and Nunn about the same.

The key thing to take away is that Nunn has about 43-44 % support. Not horrible, but she’s had very little but positive press.

Jon Lester January 30, 2014 at 12:04 pm

And both the state and national Democrats are trying their best to hide any evidence of competition with Ms. Nunn in the primary, which I think will prove to be a big mistake. The Republican candidates have scheduled a total of seven debates, and the Democrats will have exactly zero. Georgia voters should feel insulted.

seenbetrdayz January 30, 2014 at 4:12 pm

Sadly, it seems the more desperate a party is to win, the more likely they are to block out debate and competition. Prime example was the Romney coronation.

Will Durant January 31, 2014 at 11:08 am

The long lead time between the primary and the runoff will also be a factor this year since the Republican field is so crowded. Nunn will be able to still reap positive press while the two potential Republicans sling mud for two months.

Harry January 31, 2014 at 6:57 pm

Don’t be surprised if the Dems also face a runoff. There’s a lot of Democratic grassroots dissatisfaction with Nunn, for various reasons.

James Fannin January 31, 2014 at 7:16 pm

I’m sure there is some legal explanation I’m missing but how does a 501(c)3 like Points of Light keep its IRS tax status while their CEO is running for partisan political office? It just sounds wrong on so many levels. The PPP poll identifies her as the CEO of Points of Light. Isn’t the IRS death on this stuff these days? Oh right, she a democrat. What was I thinking? In any case, after all the Bush family did to create Points of Light, it looks like Michele Nunn is bent on turning the organization into a Democrat leaning non-profit like Planned Parenthood. She should watch that Karen Handel video on principles and do the right thing for her organization and resign rather than taking a leave of absence.

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