Poll: Shutdown Unpopular in GA, Nunn Very Well Positioned

October 16, 2013 13:39 pm

by Ed · 21 comments

Public Policy Poling, a sometimes controversial, Democratic-aligned polling firm polled six states relating to the shutdown and their upcoming Senate races. Georgia was one of the lucky half dozen .

If the results are to be believed, the numbers are not good for Republicans. 

Those polled disapprove of the shutdown 61% to 31%.

What is worse for the GOP is how that opinion might impact the open Senate race next year.

The shutdown will be particularly problematic for the GOP if it nominates one of the House members seeking a promotion to the Senate- 47% of voters say they’re less likely to vote Paul Broun, Phil Gingrey, or Jack Kingston for the Senate because of their support for the shutdown to only 32% who think it’s a positive. After being informed that her most likely opponents were among those House Republicans who favored the shutdown, Nunn improves to a 48/42 lead lead on the generic ballot.

Now, by this time next year, there will be a new crisis born out of current representatives’ sheer inability to govern, meaning the shutdown blues will have long passed for Republicans. However, the negative opinion being created is not a good sign heading in to next year. Also, its hard to believe that Nunn’s numbers will hold up that well between now and when she is strongly identified as a Democrat. So let’s just wait a bit more before we say this is shaping up to be a close race.

peachpundit (@peachpundit) October 16, 2013 at 1:39 pm

New post: Poll: Shutdown Unpopular in GA, Nunn Very Well Positioned http://t.co/N62J0O39EI #gapol

xdog October 16, 2013 at 2:26 pm

Not only Nunn but Handel is smiling at the poll results.

Chris Huttman October 16, 2013 at 6:27 pm

If she (Handel) was smart she’d run for Governor. I’m a Karen hater, but she’s actually perfectly positioned to make the argument against Deal, basically everything she warned about him is coming true.

2g Strategies (@2gstrategies) October 16, 2013 at 2:44 pm

From @peachpundit Poll: Shutdown Unpopular in GA, Nunn Very Well Positioned http://t.co/JdDHZF0dwc

Scott65 October 16, 2013 at 5:52 pm

PPP was also one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2012 election…so you can call ’em Democratic leaning, but they are also right. I really think those 3 are toast in a general…I wasn’t so sure about Kingston, but this makes him toast as well…and they will end up doing this again come Jan/Feb so its just going to reinforce this in peoples minds. Republicans made a grave error in putting all their eggs in the TP basket. Just because they are the loudest voice in the room doesn’t mean they are a majority of voices, and with TP favorable ratings hitting new all time lows in poll after poll of REPUBLICANS…following the TP down the rabbit hole doesn’t seem all that wise

Bill Dawers October 16, 2013 at 6:40 pm

Obama took 45.5% of the Georgia vote in 2012 without even mounting a serious effort here. This is going to be a hot contest.

John Konop October 17, 2013 at 4:44 am

That is an interesting number, but one must factor that Obama pulled abnormally high African American vote. So if Nunn picks up a few points via demographic changes it will be at the same level, if she cannot maintain Obama turnout among AA. That is why the Hillary cycle could be a game changer…..If Hillary pulls abnormally high female vote, and Nunn makes inroads via this election, combined with demographic changes, I would bet it puts the election within 2 points. If the GOP goes heavy female negative on Hillary, rather than focusing on issues, it will have a boomerang effect like Obama saw. The dumbest strategy the GOP did was attack Obama via birther…….The real question is can the party control that wing from doing the same thing with Hillary? If not, Nunn could sneak in, via wings of hate increasing female vote……

caroline October 17, 2013 at 10:55 am

Just judging from what I am seeing so far no, the GOP is going to talk about wrinkles and cankles and pretty much calling Hillary and “old hag”. So I’m willing to bet that they are going to tick off a lot of women with that.

But if you have read about the “New American Center” the GOP’s problems are even worse than that. Cranking up the culture war stuff really ticks people off too.

Ed October 17, 2013 at 7:17 am

That’s not even four points more than what John Kerry (John Kerry!) pulled in Georgia. Mark Taylor can tell you how little the presidential result foretells of Democratic performance two years down the line. Also, it is a bad idea to compare the Obama numbers to any future race. There will never be another candidate who can galvanize supporters like he can and drive African-American voters.

Well, maybe someday there will be another candidate like that but it ain’t Michelle Nunn.

benevolus October 17, 2013 at 1:07 pm

Joe Biden can!

Chris Huttman October 17, 2013 at 2:41 pm

AA share of the electorate:
2004 – 25%
2006 – 24%
2008 – 30%
2010 – 28%
2012 – 30%
2014 – …

Really doesn’t seem that inconceivable that it would be within 28-30, in other words Obama level.

The Last Democrat in Georgia October 16, 2013 at 7:50 pm

Don’t believe the hype.

Michelle Nunn is not necessarily as well-positioned as one might think as even though the shutdown is very-unpopular in Georgia, other recent polls reflect that the Democrats appear to be the ones who have gotten most of the blame for the shutdown within the state, making the Tea Party stronger than ever in Georgia and the Southeast.

Jon Lester October 17, 2013 at 12:20 pm

It also ignores all of the other issues that are sure to come up over the next 13 months, and assumes Democrats will govern competently in that time, which even their sympathizers have come to doubt in recent weeks.

caroline October 17, 2013 at 6:35 pm

Well, yeah, that doesn’t bode well for Nunn but it also bodes poorly for the GOP in general. I read where about 47% of tea partiers reside in the south. So it’s basically a southern thing with the other half spread out over all the other states. Also means someone like Paul Broun should probably be the leading candidate to be the GOP nominee I would imagine.

Bull Moose October 17, 2013 at 12:09 am

The House Members are fatally wounded by this… There was no logic to their position. Plus, they all three bought into the Cruz position. You combine that with the fact that they are all part and parcel part of the problem and carry tremendous weight and you have three non-starters…

Karen Handel squandered her “outsider” status by adopting the Ted Cruz position. I think she was well positioned to stand on the outside and point to the insanity, but she jumped in as part of it by taking on his position.

David Perdue did all of these things, but no one knows who he is.

Depending on her position of the insanity, Kelly Loeffler might offer the GOP a chance, otherwise, Michelle Nunn looks like a model of her father – a rational conservative Democrat who can win and represent our state well…

Jon Lester October 17, 2013 at 12:25 pm

The eventual nominee can always remind everyone of the Syria thing. Democrats had also better hope that Obamacare implementation smooths out before next spring. The ACA may well be all that and a can of beer, but so far, the current administration hasn’t even handled this as well as Medicare part D was under Bush.

John Konop October 17, 2013 at 1:22 pm

WOW you call Medicare Part D a victory? A massive entitlement designed to bk the country.

Jon Lester October 17, 2013 at 10:39 pm

In terms of comparative competence in bringing it to the public, between one administration and another, yes.

griftdrift October 17, 2013 at 10:48 pm

Short memory. Medicare D rollout was easily as bad.

Jon Lester October 18, 2013 at 7:32 am
tdk790 October 17, 2013 at 9:03 pm

Bull Moose = Chicken Little.

The Congressmen aren’t “fatally” wounded, Handel’s still an outsider (as is Cruz, for what its worth), Perdue DID support Cruz’s position, Loeffler wouldn’t go left of the entire GOP field, and Nunn has support of fellow conservative democrats Harry Reid and Howard Dean.

Carry on.

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