Economic Outlook 2013

January 12, 2013 13:38 pm

by Bridget Cantrell · 14 comments

H/T to Baker at That’s Just Peachy for bringing this article on Atlanta’s Lost Decade to my attention.  It’s Saturday, so here’s a seemingly un-political post.  Although…doesn’t every drop of water always flow back to the political well?

In Thursday’s MRs, I noted I would be attending a discussion on the Economic Outlook for 2013.  It was my first time hearing Economist Dr. Marci Rossell, and it was a fantastic talk.  Here’s a pic of her outline.  She started with a global perspective, then national, then Atlanta specifically.

The article recaps the following from her talk:

Cities such as Houston and Miami have found success targeting business opportunities with Latin America. As China’s population continues to grow wealthier, it also becomes an even better target for more U.S. export-related business, she said.

In Atlanta, job sectors rebounding the fastest have included professional business services and health care, Rossell said.

In fact, by the third quarter of last year, professional and business services had gained back the thousands of jobs it lost since the recession began. Atlanta’s rapidly growing technology companies had ignited much of the sector’s recovery. That’s important because professional and business services is the region’s second-largest employment sector.

I’ll be the first to admit I don’t grasp all economic concepts – but I try.  From personal experience, I’ve been seeing more RFPs to sell products to Latin America by way of Miami management companies.  I also know multiple friends mentioning they are being recruited to Miami companies across all industries.  It’s neat to see a bunch of different personal bits of info fold into what an economist is seeing from high level trends and statistics.

What struck me the most about her talk (and that the article doesn’t mention) is a point on China’s imports and exports.  Yes, we get a lot of devices, clothing, and “stuff” from China.  It’s important to note that China imports…food.  Their food imports have grown from $2B to $20B.  Her message was essentially “who needs who here?”  She then went on to talk about how commercial real estate and the housing market are coming back but farmland prices have grown at a disproportionally high rate.  Let’s hope a bubble isn’t forming, but I can see why Georgia’s Agribusiness will be more and more of a hot topic.

 

IndyInjun January 12, 2013 at 2:22 pm

Ben Bernanke made it certain in 2008 that food and energy cannot miss. When governments try to inflate their way out, the essentials are the place to invest and save.

saltycracker January 12, 2013 at 6:13 pm

Most of the big investment companies plug in a caveat to a good 2013 and that is IF the spending and deficit is addressed in a positive way.

Worried about a farm bubble ? Maybe some bad bumps are around thanks to the Feds but long term global growth should overcome government interference. Ethanol and other government programs have played heavily in farm land increases. Corn growers have seen some big annual increases in their land value & corn prices.

Meanwhile subsidies play a major role for the biggest agri-industries while 70% of GA farmers get no subsidy. Factor in very low property taxes, illegal worker savings (HB87 is a bump) and it is a great time to be a farmer.

Record prices are being received for many crops and yet cotton, corn, peanuts get millions for the biggest producers. Tens of millions for tobacco ?

•$6.34 billion in subsidies 1995-2011.
$4.24 billion in commodity subsidies.
$927 million in crop insurance subsidies.
$467 million in conservation subsidies.
$707 million in disaster subsidies.
•Georgia ranking: 16 of 50 States
•70 percent of farms in Georgia did not collect subsidy payments – according to USDA.
•Ten percent collected 82 percent of all subsidies.
•Amounting to $4.44 billion over 17 years.
•Top 10%: $34,680 average per year between 1995 and 2011.
•Bottom 80%: $465 average per year between 1995 and 2011.

http://farm.ewg.org/region.php?fips=13000

saltycracker January 12, 2013 at 6:45 pm

A takeaway here is that if marijuana were legalized, it would be well controlled and heavily taxed. It would also be very profitable and the well paid doobie lobbyists would soon have MJ as the most heavily taxpayer subsidized crop in Georgia history !

Cool ! dudes and chicks…. :)
enjoy a joint with subsidized popcorn and peanuts in a subsidized cotton t-shirt….

saltycracker January 12, 2013 at 7:19 pm

…..while on unemployment & using food stamps ! Bridget, I believe you have brought up the
complete CIRCLE OF LIFE……from the farm to the home our government is here to help ! :)

Harry January 12, 2013 at 7:44 pm

Watching a bag of cash be used to pay for seven cases of beer in Belarus
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=RgAcHeL1dro

IndyInjun January 12, 2013 at 8:06 pm

And nobody grabbed the ‘cash’ on the belt because it is trash.

The poor little cashier was a trooper, though.

mountainpass January 12, 2013 at 9:22 pm

“Here’s a pic of her outline.”

Daggumit Bridget, you got me!

mountainpass January 12, 2013 at 9:23 pm

Oh and that link doesn’t workie.

Bridget Cantrell January 12, 2013 at 10:14 pm

That’s probably user error on my part. I loaded it to my Google Docs. Try the link again. If it doesn’t work, it’s because I don’t know how to edit the settings correctly :(

Bridget Cantrell January 13, 2013 at 3:57 pm

Buh – I’m saying uncle. I removed it from Google Docs and put it directly in PPs Media folder, but now it won’t stay right side up.

The Last Democrat in Georgia January 13, 2013 at 5:04 pm

Bridget, you’re talking to yourself….As a poster who has been admonished for occasionally responding to their own comments, I must say that I’m thoroughly impressed :)

BTW, in all seriousness, you’re doing a great job as a key contributor on the site, early on. Keep up the good work!

Baker January 13, 2013 at 10:24 am

Thanks for the H/T Bridget!

saltycracker January 13, 2013 at 5:01 pm

A bit of a stick in the eye for the fourth quarter GDP:

http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/heres-a-setback-for-u-s-gdp.html/?ref=YF

saltycracker January 13, 2013 at 5:04 pm

But not as gut wrenching as the almost seaTTle Splat on the stadium.

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