Among the items on your ballot tomorrow will be your State Representative and State Senator. Some of you live in areas where those races are contested and a few seats are actually in play. Several incumbents were tossed out in primaries earlier this year but will that translate into voters tossing out members of one party and replacing them with the other? With a few exceptions I don’t think so. My take on the seats in play tomorrow is as follows:
The Senate is rather quite. The only race really in doubt is SD6 between incumbent Democrat Doug Stoner and GOP challenger Hunter Hill. Both candidates have plenty of money and I think the race will be close either way.
SD9 between incumbent Republican Don Balfour and Democratic challenger Scott Drake has attracted interest but I don’t see this race as close. Balfour wins easily in the solidly Republican district.
UPDATE: Also there is a special election in SD30. Republicans Dugan, Hembree, Naughton, and Richardson square off. My prediction is a runoff between Hembree and Naughton. While Richardson has name ID, so does Hembree. Naughton is from Carroll County, which represents the largest part of the district.
I don’t think any GOP House incumbent is in serious trouble.
Possible pickups for the GOP:
HD12: Barbara Massey Reece (D) v. Eddie Lumsden (R) probably a toss up race.
HD16: Rick Crawford (D) is in serious trouble. I think Trey Kelley (R) wins big.
HD66: Open seat with 43% black voting age population. Bob Snelling (R) v. Kimberly Alexander (
R D). Leans Democratic.
HD81: Scott Holcomb (D) v. Chris Boedeker (R). Leans Republican.
HD96: Pedro Marin (D) v. Mark Williams (R). Leans Republican.
HD132: Carl Von Epps (D) v. Gene King (R). Could be close but leans Democratic because of a 41% black voting age population.
HD105: New toss up seat in Gwinnett. Joyce Chandler (R) v. Renita Hamilton (D). Black VAP is 34%. The election is a toss up in my opinion.
Where am I wrong and what races did I miss?
Full disclosure: I’ve donated money to Boedeker, Chandler, Kelley, King, and Williams.
UPDATE: I should have also mentioned HD111. It’s a new seat in Henry County. Brian Strickand (R) v. Bill Blackmon (R). The seat leans Republican so Strickland is favored to win.