Competition Time!

October 30, 2012 10:34 am

by Ed · 59 comments

Note: This post is made possible due to Buzz’ enabling encouragement. 

With one painful short week until the election, it is now competition time.

Your mission is to correctly predict the winner of the Presidential election, the Electoral College and states won per candidate. Create your map at 270 to win and share it here. Picks are due by midnight tomorrow.

You get one point for every correct state, electoral college vote and correctly predicting the winner. You will subtract one point for every EC vote over your prediction so say you predict, 310 EC votes and the winner receives 300, you will receive 290.

If you correctly predict the Electoral College vote, the winner and get every state correct, you receive a 538 point bonus.

The tie breaker is to predict the percentage both candidates win.

First place GETS FIRST CHOICE OF THE FOLLOWING PRIZES, and so on to fifth place.
The prizes are: attend 1 (one) Georgia State University sports match of your choosing in Atlanta with yours truly.
A pat on the back
A steak dinner (as is customary for PP wagers)
20 Schrute Bucks
Eternal pride

To borrow a line from Alec Baldwin: “I’d wish you luck but you wouldn’t know what to do with it.”

Calypso October 30, 2012 at 10:45 am

Obama-4
Romney-3
In 11 innings.

Andre October 30, 2012 at 12:16 pm

Calypso, we all know that 4 – 3 score is due to the umpires’ misapplication of the infield fly rule.

Max Power October 30, 2012 at 11:17 am

Can I get the Schrute bucks converted into Stanley Nickels?

Ed October 30, 2012 at 11:25 am

The committee has made its ruling.

Maybe.

Max Power October 30, 2012 at 11:20 am

Obama 303, Romney 235

Popular vote: Obama 48.3% Romney 47.6

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XMU

Dave Bearse October 31, 2012 at 9:47 pm

You, Dave In Decatur, and I have the same electoral college picks. I was the last to post, but I promise I prepared mine without looking at those of anyone else. Bring on the tiebreaker!

Scott65 October 30, 2012 at 11:56 am

All you have to do is turn on any cable news channel to see what poor taste this is in being posted today. A post rallying to the aid of the 10-12 MILLION Americans harmed by this storm would be a bit more appropriate…how about a prize for the one who can help raise the most money for victims of the storm…

The Last Democrat in Georgia October 30, 2012 at 4:27 pm

+1…I completely agree.

dsean October 30, 2012 at 1:02 pm

Romney – 285 with 51% of popular vote
Obama – 253 with 47% of popular vote

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=XTs

Doug Deal October 30, 2012 at 2:00 pm

Romney 52% – 295 EV
Obama 47% – 243 EV

Doug Deal October 30, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Buzz Brockway October 30, 2012 at 2:28 pm

You guys have no faith!

Romney/Ryan: 337
Obama/Biden: 201

RCP map.

NY Times “bubbles”

Doug Deal October 30, 2012 at 2:33 pm

That’s my ceiling number for Romney, so I know how you came to it. I was just trying to be competitive, not overly optimistic. But you do have a point, people forget the wrong predictions, but they sure do remember the way out ones when they get lucky and win the lottery. So why not go strong?

When you get your own Nate Silveresque type of blog, don’t end up becoming a self absorbed you know what, like he is.

Buzz Brockway October 30, 2012 at 2:35 pm

LOL.

Here’s an interesting article predicting a Romney blowout.

Three Jack October 30, 2012 at 2:38 pm

Could happen — http://www.270towin.com/ — 269 Romney, 269 Obama

Predicted outcome — http://www.270towin.com/ — 301 Romney, 237 Obama

Romney 51%
Obama 47%
Johnson 2%
Roseanne Barr – most entertaining, “Vote for me, I’ll fix this shit”.

Three Jack October 30, 2012 at 2:40 pm

Predicted — http://www.270towin.com/ — Romney 301, Obama 237

Could happen — http://www.270towin.com/ — 269 – 269

Romney 51%
Obama 47%
Johnson 2%
Roseanne Barr – Most entertaining, “Vote for me, I’ll fix this sh*t”

Three Jack October 30, 2012 at 3:27 pm

Ok, let’s try again – Romney 301 – Obama 237 — http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=YfO

Could happen, 269 tie — http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=YfT

Ed October 30, 2012 at 2:51 pm

PLEASE WHEN YOU CREATE YOUR MAPS AT 270 TO WIN, BE SURE TO SHARE THE LINK THAT IS GENERATED.

GOPundit October 30, 2012 at 3:32 pm

BHO: 269
WMR: 269

Resulting in a Romney/Biden Administration.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=YfV

Calypso October 30, 2012 at 3:34 pm

What happens if the Senate goes R next week, or the House go D? Is it the lame duck congress which selects the Prez and Veep?

Charlie October 30, 2012 at 3:45 pm

I keep seeing people saying that it’s Romney/Biden if 269/269, but I’m curious if the Senate has to stick with Biden (assuming R-House and D-Senate)?

Why not Romney-Obama or even Romney-H.Clinton?

Or knowing the Senate, Romney-Reid?

Doug Deal October 30, 2012 at 4:44 pm

The no one gets a majority rules, if I remember correctly, are that the House has to pick from the top three finishers in EV’s and the Senate has to pick from the top two.

So if some faithless elector picks that Gary Johnson shut-in and he finishes third in the race for the Presidency, he would be eligible, and that would be the closest the Libertarians will ever come to winning.

GOPundit October 30, 2012 at 5:01 pm

They have to have distinct list of names who shall be eligible for president and those for vice-president. So the only way for the Romney/Obama administration to happen would be for the President to not make the list of potential presidents.

Also I think that the 12th amendment would prohibit the Clinton possibility unless the House fails to select a President by the 4th of March.

GOPundit October 30, 2012 at 5:04 pm
drjay November 5, 2012 at 2:34 pm

there was a time when things were different, but when i’ve heard this discused before, it always included the notion that a lot of these senators are going to be under very odd pressures that go beyond normal party politics. like matching their vote to that of who carried their state on election day. any “mavericks” that are lame ducks may want to go off the reservation in some sort weird show of independence (think lieberman) back in 1974 when it looked like there was an actual chance carl albert might end up in the white house he supposedly said that he would immediately resign once the gop vp was confirmed because the country had voted for a gop prez and he was not going to usurp their will (imagine that happening in todays dc…)

Lawton Sack (Go Jackets!) October 30, 2012 at 4:13 pm

If I were the Democrats in this position, I would vote for the Republican that occupies a seat that could be won by a Democrat in a special election. Why remove someone from your Party in the Senate when there may be a chance a Republican picks it up? Get a Republican out until at least the special election and take your chances for getting rid of a Republican seat for awhile.

Ken October 30, 2012 at 6:42 pm

And … that would be Scott Brown.

Doug Deal October 30, 2012 at 3:47 pm

Doesn’t work for me, javascript errors fail to generate the link.

Charlie October 30, 2012 at 8:32 pm

I’m willing to buy into the “So goes Ohio” meme, and I think we’ll be up late.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=Yzu

The optimist in me wins out. Romney 285, Obama 253

Romney 50.2 popular vote, Obama 47.1

Harry October 30, 2012 at 8:44 pm

I’ll be working for the Romney Ohio GOTV the last 72 hours, making phone calls and knocking on doors in Marietta, OH. One of my friends is unfortunately working for Obama on the other end of the state. If anybody needs a ride up, let me know.

Dave In Decatur October 30, 2012 at 9:43 pm

Here’s my map: http://politi.co/M14ZsC

Electoral College:
Obama 303
Romney 235

Romney wins FL and NC. Obama takes the rest of the swing states.

Popular vote:
Obama 49.9%
Romney 48.6

Dave In Decatur October 31, 2012 at 2:58 am

and if you insist on a 27o To Win link instead of Politico:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=YRj

Dave Bearse October 31, 2012 at 9:47 pm

You, Max Power, and I have the same electoral college picks. I was the last to post, but I promise I prepared mine without looking at those of anyone else. Bring on the tiebreaker!

The Last Democrat in Georgia October 30, 2012 at 10:28 pm

My prediction:

Romney wins 32 states and becomes the 45th President of the United States.

Electoral College: Romney 301, Obama 237

Popular vote: Romney 53 %, Obama 47%

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/obama_vs_romney_create_your_own_electoral_college_map.html

analogkid October 30, 2012 at 10:36 pm

Map: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=YGK

Electoral College:
Obama: 276
Romney: 262

Popular vote:
Obama: 49.0%
Romney: 50.0%
Others: 1.0%

Dave Bearse October 30, 2012 at 10:51 pm

What is the cut off time for submissions, Ed? 50.3% Obama, 48.8% Romney, and the link below is my prediction as of the moment. My prediction places all slight lean Obama states that are really too close to call in the Obama column, so I may move a one or two of them to the Romney column sometime prior to cut off time.

Dave’s map.

Dave Bearse October 30, 2012 at 10:55 pm

The link has Obama and Romney 25 states each; EV 303 Obama and 235 Romney.

Ed October 31, 2012 at 8:23 am

Midnight tonight. Your linked map isn’t complete?

Daddy Got A Gun October 31, 2012 at 8:32 am

My Link: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=YXe

The Marxist = 220
Liberty’s Candidate = 318

Daddy Got A Gun October 31, 2012 at 9:39 am

My popular vote numbers are:

Romney = 56%
The Marxist Arab Owned guy = 43%
Ron Paul and Others = 1%

Ed October 31, 2012 at 10:03 am

You are my new favorite poster.

Calypso October 31, 2012 at 10:06 am

You have now hurt my feelings.

Ed October 31, 2012 at 10:16 am

Who are you?

Calypso October 31, 2012 at 10:57 am

I am your inner conscience, your super-ego, your raison d’être. I am Calypso.

Nathan October 31, 2012 at 8:44 am
Nathan October 31, 2012 at 10:03 am

Ok, fine.

Obama: 48.2%
Romney: 50.3%

Ed October 31, 2012 at 9:02 am

I would like to note, those of you failing to put in the vote percentage are only hurting yourselves from achieving victory.

Nathan October 31, 2012 at 10:05 am

I propose a bocce ball shoot-out at Ormsby’s at high noon on the date of when the electors from Georgia cast their ballots to settle the score.

Buzz Brockway November 5, 2012 at 9:06 am

OK fine.

Romney 53%
Obama 45%
Johnson 2%

kyleinatl October 31, 2012 at 11:42 am

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=ZuU

The Theocratic Nightmare, uhh I mean Liberty guy – 272
Obama – 266

Vote pct
Romney: 50.1%
Obama: 49.9%

sunkawakan October 31, 2012 at 8:25 pm

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=baSH

Obama – 271, 50.0%; Romney – 267, 48.8%; (Gary Johnson, 1.2%)

SallyForth October 31, 2012 at 10:37 pm

My link http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bbhR

Obama 243
Romney 295

Obama 47%
Romney 52.25%
Johnson .75%

Bill Dawers November 5, 2012 at 9:01 am

Obama 303
Romney 235

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bjsM

Obama 50.8%
Romney 48.5%

Bill Dawers November 5, 2012 at 10:24 am

Oh I missed the deadline. By days.

Baker November 5, 2012 at 11:55 am

I also missed the deadline but:

As much as it pains me, if I were to win with you overlooking deadline, how about just a Varsity dinner and $10 Schrute bucks?

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bkpj

Obama 277
Romney 261

Obama keeps Nevada, Penn, and Ohio and that’s that.

I think the lure of easy fixes and while not “socialism” per se, those theories, are too alluring for human nature and we haven’t gone down that rathole yet…here we go…

Ed November 30, 2012 at 9:24 am

So the reason I have not tabulated the winners is because I’m too lazy….uh… I mean because the votes are still being tallied.

And I’m too lazy.

FYI–Obamarama has a larger margin of victory than W. in ’04.

More on that later.

Ed January 3, 2013 at 11:37 am

FYI, I will be tallying the results and posting winners either today or tomorrow.

Nathan January 3, 2013 at 12:55 pm

Slacker.

Ed January 3, 2013 at 1:01 pm

I created way too much work for myself. Ugh.

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