Our firm released a joint poll today of the Presidential race and Charter Schools Amendment. We (Landmark Communications) conducted the poll jointly with Rosetta Stone Communications last evening for Channel 2 News in Atlanta.
I really find the results of the Charter Schools Amendment particularly interesting.
First the disclaimers and background: 500 likely voters were interviewed last evening, Thursday, October 25, and participated in the entire poll. Black voters made up 31% of the survey, which is about what the turnout percentage will be when all the votes are counted. The margin of error is 4.3%. WSB owns the poll, but we are allowed to release it after they do.
The bottom lines: Romney substantially ahead with a week and a half to go, and while the Amendment leads 47-37%, neither side of the Charter Schools Amendment battle currently carries a majority. The Charter Schools vote will apparently go down to the wire.
PRESIDENTIAL RACE RESULTS AND KEY FINDINGS
1. Former Gov. Romney leads President Obama in Georgia 53-42%.
2. Inside the 15-County Metro Atlanta area: Obama leads Romney 50-46%. Outside of the Metro Atlanta area: Romney leads Obama 60-33%.
3. Romney leads with all age groups and both genders. Men give Romney a 16-point margin, while women give Romney an eight-point margin.
4. Younger voters aged 18-35 say they support Romney by a 49-42% margin. Voters aged 65 and older give Romney 56% of the vote vs. 37% for President Obama.
5. Romney is running stronger among black voters than Republicans traditionally perform. 22% of black voters said they support Romney as of Thursday evening, which is more than twice the level of support given to Republican nominee John McCain in 2008.
6. Self-described “Independent” voters give 58% of their votes to Romney vs. 25% going to President Obama.
CHARTER SCHOOL AMENDMENT RESULTS AND KEY FINDINGS
1. The Charter Schools Amendment leads in Georgia but has not yet earned a majority level of support among likely voters. 47% of Georgians say they will vote for the Charter Schools Amendment while 37% say they will vote no on the Amendment.
2. There is a stark difference in levels of support based on the age of the voter. Younger voters are strongly supportive of the Amendment (57-32% among those aged 18-35), while older voters slightly oppose the Amendment (40-41% in opposition among those over age 64).
3. There is very little difference in support or opposition based on gender, race or political party. In other words, there is no significant difference based on whether a voter is a Republican or a Democrat, a male or a female, or based on race.
4. Support is much greater in the 15-County Metro Atlanta area than outside of it. 54% of voters in the Metro Atlanta area support the Amendment while 32% oppose. Outside of Metro Atlanta 42% oppose it while 41% support it.
5. To keep perspective about the findings of this poll: With a week and a half until the election, neither side has a majority of the vote. Supporters of the Charter Schools Amendment currently have the lead but with 16% of the vote remaining undecided, this vote remains open for either side to win.