Comparing Turnout 2008 vs. 2012
We’re getting frequent requests for research on who is voting early in 2012 vs. those who voted early in 2008. My friend, colleague and data guru Mike Seigle was kind enough to research some comparisons for our Peach Pundit community.
A perfect comparison can’t be made because the laws permitting early voting have changed from 2008. Early voting was held for 45 days in 2008, but in 2012 early voting will only occur for 21 days.
However, percentages of turnout among various demographic groups can be compared.
Below you’ll see the turnout comparisons broken out by racial groups.
The Primary Finding: Essentially there has been a net +3.4% increase in the net number of white voters and nearly a 4% net decrease among black voters from 2008 numbers. Hispanic and Asian early voters in 2012 have voted in similar patterns to 2008.
Among white voters — comparing 2008 vs. 2012 early turnout as of 20 days before Election Day:
With 20 days left in the 2008election, 60.4% of voters were white.
With 20 days left in the 2012election, 63% of voters are white.
Among black voters — comparing 2008 vs. 2012 early turnout as of 20 days before Election Day:
With 20 days left in the 2008election, 34.9% of voters were black.
With 20 days left in the 2012election, 31.1% of voters are black.
Among Asian and Hispanic voters:
The early turnout percentages are essentially unchanged from 2008 to 2012 among both Asian and Hispanic voters (about half a percentage point each).