AJC Says Romney Winning Georgia

OK, this first part is hardly surprising:

The poll, conducted last week by Abt SRBI Inc., found Romney leading Obama among likely voters 51 percent to 43 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

The results reinforce the political picture that has existed in Georgia for at least a decade: Democrats find success in Atlanta’s urban core and parts of southwest Georgia while Republicans dominate nearly everywhere else.

It should be noted that this is a new polling firm for the AJC.  Abt SRBI Inc. is the same pollster used by Time Magazine and the Washington Post.

But there’s also some questions about other GA issues in the poll:

A slight plurality of Georgians believe the state should adopt one of the measures under Obamacare, to expand Medicaid, the state-and-federal program that provides health insurance to the poor and disabled. Gov. Nathan Deal, a Republican, has rejected the idea, as have many Republican governors around the country.

“A slight plurality” means not enough people even understand the question to have a consensus opinion on the subject.

Also:

“The president also is more trusted to set education policy.”

That’s a standalone line.  The question used to determine that isn’t listed, so we don’t know who he is preferred to.  Or if anyone answering has had a basic civics class.  Which these days is irrelevant.  Unless you’re basing your argument for everything on “local control”, which seems to work well here.  Even by people who trust the President more.  Or something.

17 comments

  1. Max Power says:

    “A slight plurality” means not enough people even understand the question to have a consensus opinion on the subject.

    No Charlie, a slight plurality probably means that enough people understand the importance of medicaid in providing long term care to seniors. I think enough people have gone through the spending down process to understand medicaid is almost as important to seniors as medicare.

    • Charlie says:

      A plurality on a yes/no question means there’s not a majority opinion on how the state should handle the problem. If there was, it wouldn’t be a plurality.

        • Charlie says:

          In a representative government, the side that gets a bill passed through the legislature and signed by the governor gets to decide state policy, not an opinion poll.

          • I know how government works but I think it’s bad policy for the state not to do the Medicaid expansion and I think state voters already agree with me and more will as the health care reform bill continues to unfold and they see that Republicans at the Capitol are willingly leaving them out of an important part of it.

            If I were a Republican and I decided I’d like to stay in charge of this state, I’d try not to needlessly pick fights and make partisan stands when the plurality or majority of voters in the state are on the other side of those issues.

  2. What’s the question? I was a noted hater on these pages of the AJC’s previous polling partner Mason Dixon, but as of today the AJC has put the entire crosstabs/questions on their website (though it is a bit hard to find).

    Medicaid question:
    Q24. PART OF THIS LAW WOULD PROVIDE HEALTH INSURANCE BY EXPANDING MEDICAID TO MANY LOW-INCOME UNINSURED GEORGIANS, SUCH AS SINGLE ADULTS WHOSE INCOMES ARE BELOW ABOUT $15K THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WOULD PAY THE ENTIRE COST OF THE EXPANSION FOR THE FIRST FEW YEARS AND AT LEAST 90 PERCENT AFTER THAT. THE STATE WOULD HAVE TO PAY THE REST OF THE
    COST OF AN EXPANSION. SHOULD GEORGIA EXPAND MEDICAID OR NOT?

    Education Question:
    Q12D. REGARDLESS OF WHO YOU SUPPORT, WHICH CANDIDATE DO YOU TRUST TO DO A BETTER JOB HANDLING EDUCATION – (OBAMA) OR (ROMNEY)?

    LALALA NOT LISTENING REPUBLICAN STATE FOREVER NA NA NA I DONT CARE WHAT ANYONE ELSE SAYS.

    These are straightforward questions that in the case of Medicaid give a very accurate description of what the expansion would be – and Georgia voters support it. And on Education, it was “COMPARED TO ROMNEY”.

    So let’s just not pretend that we can ignore the results and the feelings of the electorate when they don’t hew to our partisan self interest.

    • Charlie says:

      OK, that’s helpful.

      So we’re asking questions about two Presidential candidates “setting education policy” which is primarily done at local and state levels. Another affront to civics.

      • Scott65 says:

        The education question is kinda lame…but the medicaid question isnt. When presented with the facts I would say most Georgians would support it, but that hasn’t stopped Deal and Co from opting out…even though in the first 2 years its totally paid for…and combine that with what looks like a defeat to renew the bed tax and you are gonna put Georgia in a fiscally perilous position. Lest you all forget…most of these people are “working” poor, and if they can have it better somewhere else…dont think for a second they wont pick up and move. Then its gonna cost more to get someone to say “fries with that?” Just ask farmers in S. Georgia how quickly their workforce picked up and hauled outta state when the immigration bill passed

        • Charlie says:

          My point as you’re now agreeing to is that most don’t yet know the details to have an informed opinion to support it. Anything beyond that is conjecture and not a poll.

    • Doug Deal says:

      One wonders what the results to the medicare question would be if the words “THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT WOULD PAY THE ENTIRE COST OF THE EXPANSION FOR THE FIRST FEW YEARS AND AT LEAST 90 PERCENT AFTER THAT.” with “you and other taxpayers, including your children, their children and their grandchildren, would pay the entire cost of the expansion from day 1.”

      The question is gamed to get a more favorable response. The Federal Government pays nothing, except when they print currency, everything else is paid for by all of us.

  3. Scott65 says:

    I venture to say there are at least 650,000 people who will be strongly in favor of the Medicaid expansion as thats the approximate number who will be left uninsured by this short sighted pandering from the Governor. Just like his cut 3% everywhere is about the stupidest thing I have seen in GA politics (and there have been some whoppers). I am sure there are agencies that could stand more than a 3% reduction…but you dont cut revenue producing agencies like licensing renewal which by the way due to the beyond stupid immigration law is increasing the workload tremendously. I really dont think cosmetology licenses need to be subject to an immigration law. Also, say what you want about DFCS, they are operating on fumes as it is now…conservatives are often fond of using the excuse “its for the children” when it comes to restricting things…but mark my words…children will fall through the cracks in the system and some will die due to these cuts that should not happen…hell, its happening now. Yes there are dishonest people everywhere…but you clean these agencies up, not punish those who have no voice

  4. The bigger mystery here is not who is winning Georgia: it’s “What happened to Mason Dixon?”

    Based on this new AJC poll, I assume Mason Dixon is no longer being used by the AJC for polling. (Again, I just assume it).

    Chris H and I both have agreed that their polling for Georgia was historically poor. They have had better results in other states but had really not been accurate in their Georgia work.

    Chris, what was the presumed black voting percentage in the new poll?

    • They had the likely voter universe at 65% white, 29% black.

      Which seems ABOUT right to me, I think the black % could end up being a little higher – closer to 31%.

      I am glad to see Mason Dixon gone and you are correct – they are no longer being used by the AJC. Probably because unlike Mason Dixon polling predicted, Governor Oxendine is not appointing former Governor Massey to oversee the new metro T-SPLOST spending.

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