Who’s Voting So Far — Part Two

132,673 voters in Georgia have requested absentee ballots and 33,340 have actually returned them as votes.

Early voting has not begun as of this posting. Therefore absentee ballots are the primary measure by which we can gauge likely election results.

69% of voters who have requested absentee ballots are white, 24% are black.  Of those 33,450 who have actually returned the ballots and voted, 74% are white and 21% are black.

17,718 of those who have actually returned their ballots have voted in at least one Republican Primary since 2006; 14,285 have voted in at least one Democratic Primary since 2006.

Just isolating Gwinnett County as an example:  In Gwinnett, 83% of those who have actually cast an absentee ballot are white. This is substantially larger than the overall county voter demographic. The disparity is likely for two reasons:  one is that normally older voters are more likely than younger voters to cast ballots by absentee ballot, and younger voters in Gwinnett tend to be more minority. Second, and this is just a subjective opinion: there seems to be a real enthusiasm gap between Conservatives and Republicans who want to send President Obama packing, and Democrats who want to keep him in office.


  1. Some perspective…
    The black % was 21% for non-in-person voting as of 10/10 in 2008 for those who had returned ballots. Hard to make a direct comparison because in-person early voting has been curtailed and in theory some of the million or so in-person voters from ’08 could shift their habits to mail voting, though most likely they will just continue voting in person.

    White percentage in Gwinnett was 88.4%.

    At such tiny sample sizes and with so many differences in voting procedures since 2008, I’d draw no such conclusions. I will note that 21% statewide return rate perfectly mirrors 2008 at this point, and that Gwinnett’s mail absentee electorate was 5% whiter at this point – about what you’d expect in a county that’s growing less white with each passing day.

    In context – I can say with 95% certainty that there is no enthusiasm gap in these numbers. For more comparison’s sake – in 2010 by Oct 10th, the black % of returned early ballots was 15%. And total black % of electorate for the ’10 election was 28% – down 2% from 2008’s record. And for Gwinnett … 90% white!

    More perspective…
    Group / Active Reg Sep 08 / Active Reg Sep 12 / Difference
    Black Women / 855,387 / 918,057 / +7%
    Black Men / 589,766 / 636,716 / +8%
    White Women / 1,685,930 / 1,661,619 / -1%
    White Men / 1,490,590 / 1,464,240 / -2%


  2. Howard Roark says:


    Can you post a link to the website where you get this information. I have downloaded early voters before. Is it the same link.

    Many thanks

  3. Howard Roark, my Fountainhead friend,

    Mike Seigle at my company pulled these numbers, matched them against past voting behavior and provided them to me. I’d happily oblige, but he’s the one who has to provide links (and can do so if you contact him): 770 813 1000.

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