Primary Results Prediction Thread

The polls close in a few hours. All the predictions, polls, prognostications, etc…will be meaningless because we’ll have actual results. But until then we can predict and prognosticate all we want. That’s what this thread is for. Tell us, with as much specificity as you dare, what will happen tonight.

Be sure to check out Jim Galloway’s tips for things to watch tonight. Here’s one worth mentioning:

– Will TSPLOST supporters wait until 7 p.m. before assigning blame for the campaign?

Check back tonight at 7 PM for the results live blog.

32 comments

  1. Jackster says:

    I predict the “Modify” feature will be added to the general election ballot, and a $6 campaign will ensue to convince proponents of the measure that spell check really is worth fighting for.

    Also, because twitter has had such a profound impact on John Lewis’s campaign, there will be a moment of silence of his twitter feed to recognize all of his opponents who he previously rewarded with a moment of silence. #AtlantaPressClub

    Oh, and for everyone’s reference – http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2012_0731/

    I’m way too busy to bother with a DDOS attack on that site for work, so I’m leaving it up to the Pro TSPLOST campaign to get it done.

  2. Mike Dudgeon says:

    I can’t resist predictions… I even ran my own local prediction game on Facebook just for fun on the Forsyth County local races.

    So I’ll make one that is more about vote % than the outcome. I predict TSPLOST fails 64-36 in the Mountain Region (includes Forsyth, Hall, NE GA)

    I also predict that the spread in Knox-Duncan in District 26 is 5 or less.

    • The Last Democrat in Georgia says:

      The struggle of the Mountain Region T-SPLOST is notable because, if I am correct (let me know if I am not), included in the Mountain Region T-SPLOST project list is a proposal to widen the current four-lane Georgia 400 to about 8 lanes from McFarland Pkwy up to about Georgia 20 as well as possibly some proposals to widen the current 2-lane Bethelview Rd to 4 lanes from Georgia 9 up to Georgia 20 and widen Old Atlanta Rd/Sharon Rd to 4 lanes from McGinnis Ferry Rd up to Georgia 141, which IMHO are all modest road construction proposals, but here in Georgia many seem to consider widening heavily-congested 2-lane roads to include one extra lane in each direction to be an act of extreme roadbuilding.

      • Joshua Morris says:

        Were those projects not already on a list to be done over the next decade or so? What’s the difference? This isn’t about the projects; it’s about how we come up with the money and whether we’re locked into a specific list for the next 10 yrs. BTW, most major projects aren’t scheduled for completion until 2020 or later anyway.

        • The Last Democrat in Georgia says:

          I most certainly agree that the struggle of the T-SPLOST in the Mountain Region is not about the projects as I think that it is completely asinine to attempt to fund much-needed and often way-overdue construction projects (like I-20/I-285 West, GA 400/I-285, etc) through a regional tax increase referendum in which there is an extremely-high probability of rejection by voters.

          That the lack of popularity of the T-SPLOST concept amongst voters is about how we come up with the money and is because this process locks us into a specific list for the next 10 years and is because most major projects are not scheduled for completion, or even to start construction in most cases, until after 2020 are excellent points.

          If some of these construction projects are so critically-important, then why are they being put in a regional voter referendum where 1) they are being presented to the public as optional and 2) they can be voted on by voters in another part of the region who may not necessarily think that those projects are all that important as people in Rabun County may not particularly care whether 400 is widened in suburban Southern Forsyth County just as people in exurban Fayette County may not necessarily care all that much, if at all, if GA 400 & the Top End of I-285 on the Northside are reconstructed because, frankly, it’s not really their job to care whether those roads are improved, it’s the state’s job to care and deal with those traffic issues.

  3. Calypso says:

    TSPLOST fails in the metro-Atlanta region 52-47 with 1% still stuck in traffic and couldn’t make it to the polls before closing.

    • elfiii says:

      I’m good to go with this one. The 1% ‘ers need to start getting up an hour earlier each day.

  4. jb2011 says:

    I think Spencer Frye will upset 20-year incumbent Keith Heard in the Democratic primary for HD 118.

  5. IndyInjun says:

    Passions are running high in the CSRA region and we have fought this one harder than anything I have seen, but I never overestimate voter intelligence on referendums. There is a strong disposition to default to “yes.” If there ever has been an issue to defeat on a referendum, T-Splost is it. Two years ago this region inexplicably went almost 2:1 for Handel over Deal, so a pleasant surprise is possible.

    • The Last Democrat in Georgia says:

      Ouch. From I what understand, the Coastal Region was reported to supposedly be one of the more receptive regions to T-SPLOST in the state.

    • IndyInjun says:

      Amazing! Chatham County has been touted all over the state as being the primary beneficiary of TSPLOST and it failed there.

    • The Last Democrat in Georgia says:

      It looks like Mr. Dawers was almost right on the money as the tally with 205 0f 206 precincts reporting is 42% Yes, 58% No in the Coastal Region.

  6. JacobenAtlanta says:

    I predict that the Tsplost falls by a margin of 52-46 percent in the Metro Atlanta region. I predict that there will be no new transportation referendum in the next 5 years and certainly not before next year when GRTA shuts down. I predict that the politicians who run our state’s government begin to put in place toll roads and peach pass lanes on all Atlanta roads. I predict that the the same politicians will take the majority of this Atlanta raised money and spend it on roads not in the Atlanta region (just like they already do). I predict that Marta will continue to fail as a system because of the 50/50 split and lack of government support. I predict that major corporations like AT&T will move jobs from the Atlanta area because our lack of action. I predict jobless opponents of the TSplost will be sitting in worse traffic 5 years from now.

    • Calypso says:

      “I predict that the Tsplost falls by a margin of 52-46 percent in the Metro Atlanta region.”

      Math is not your strong suit, is it?

      • JacobenAtlanta says:

        It isn’t. Obviously, I meant 54% against and 46% for. Still, do you disagree with any of the points I made?

    • The Last Democrat in Georgia says:

      Don’t be so gloom-and-doom as improving transportation was never the seemingly overnight proposition that the T-SPLOST campaign sold it to be, especially after about two decades of complete neglect of the transportation network.

      Things can and will get better eventually, it’s just that the T-SPLOST proponents were going about doing transportation and economic development improvements the wrong way.

      Instead of trying to perform critically-needed transportation (and economic development) upgrades by attempting to raise taxes in a voter referendum in a region with sharply-differing political, social and cultural agendas, the powers-that-be should be funding these items by decreasing and eliminating taxes, like the state gas tax and the 1% sales tax that Fulton and DeKalb pay for MARTA.

      In a region and state with a well-documented aversion to tax increases and big government and a very strong libertarian streak, proposing to fund transportation upgrades by decreasing and eliminating taxes is likely the path of least resistance and is also likely the best and only way to proceed.

      • JacobenAtlanta says:

        CEO of a company with large offices in Atlanta:
        Let me see, you guys have one of the worst transit systems in the country. You also spend the least amount on transportation and mass transit in the country. Now, you vote down the first comprehensive and bipartisan initiative in Georgia history aimed at transit while your competitor cities are investing (and this plan took 5 years to develop). Why should we continue to operate here?

        Last Democrat:
        Well, you have to understand that we are a libertarian region. We’ll improve the system one day …

        • The Last Democrat in Georgia says:

          The T-SPLOST referendum approach was always extremely risky because if it failed it would be to the outside business world the public relations nightmare scenario that you are describing, so now instead of just doing nothing about transportation, it appears to the outside world, especially the business world, that the region refuses to do nothing about transportation when that is not necessarily the case.

          It actually would have been better to continue to do nothing for the time being than to risk the chance of failure and appear to the outside world as if we refuse to do anything because our incompetent state government does not want to do their constitutionally-mandated job of taking care of the state’s transportation network.

          • JacobenAtlanta says:

            Completely agree, but now that we’re at this bridge what is there to do? We are watching the nightmare scenario become a reality. Perception is reality and the perception of this referendum is going to be horrible for Atlanta.

            • The Last Democrat in Georgia says:

              Man, I wish that I could tell you that things get better from here, but they likely don’t get any better and probably only get much worse from here, at least in the short and medium term, though I do think that the region will likely be better off in the long run because of the defeat of the T-SPLOST which many saw as the last gasp of the sprawl-and-overdevelopment era.

              The good thing is that now many of the processes that might have been pushed off for many more years with the smoke-and-mirrors victory of the T-SPLOST are now moved up as MARTA likely completes its vicious death spiral cycle much sooner and GRTA Xpress runs out of funding next year possibly dumping hundreds-of-thousands of vehicles onto an already overcapacity freeway and surface road network forcing everyone, especially our seemingly “gone fishin'” state political leadership to confront a transportation reality much sooner than people might expect as part of a political process that we’ve all been avoiding and kicking the can down the road for quite sometime.

              And we don’t go either heavy on the transit investment, or heavy on the road investment, or heavy on investment in both the transit and the roads, I suspect that the Feds will eventually do it for us by imposing congestion pricing on the Interstates to clear them of excess local so that out-of-state and through traffic can get through, an eventuality that is likely much closer than many think after two decades of virtually absolutely no investment in either transit or roads.

      • Calypso says:

        Hey Jimmie, I was wrong. Beaudreau got 48% in the primary. Do you care to make another bold prediction about the run-off?

  7. A couple interesting ones:

    1. Burt Jones defeats incumbent Sen. Johnny Grant Senate 25.

    2. Dale Rutledge defeats incumbent Rep Steve Davis in Henry/Rockdale/Newton by around 20 points — House 109.

  8. Joshua Morris says:

    My very unscientific gut feeling:
    CD-9 – Zoller and Collins go to a runoff.
    Hall County Commission Chair – Mecum wins without a runoff.
    PSC – Incumbents win.
    TSPLOST – 25/75, 3 regions pass it/9 regions reject it.

  9. Charlie says:

    I’m trying to get out of the prediction business, and frankly, I haven’t been as close to the campaigns on the ground to get the feedback as I would like in most of the interesting races this cycle.

    Instead, I was going to write a post of “what I’m looking for” in tonights results, but I’ll just randomly mention a few here, as time is short and someone needs to remind me to go vote.

    Who has more room on his right, Lynn Westmoreland or Phil Gingrey? Both are “severely conservative” legislators with a record to prove it. At least, to most of us. But each found not one but TWO men to run to their right. So, given that I expect each to skate (and having been represented by Westmoreland and now represented by Gingrey I will be glad that they do), I had to do something to make this interesting for me. So, let’s see who left more room to the right of them with their base.

    The Senate: From what I’m told, it look like Senator Heath is viewed as the most volnerable to a challenge, and will likley be pushed into a runoff tonight. Rogers stock has fallen but his death bed conversion on T-SPLOST has probably saved him. Staton and Murphy also have tough battles on their hands. And then there’s

    BALFOUR: Seriously Gwinnett County, I’m going to learn a lot about you tonight. Given the number of crooks you keep putting on the commission, I expect Balfour to skate as well.

    SS-6 Josh Belinfante leads Hunter Hill into a runoff, I think.

    The House: Most likely to fall are Steve Davis and Kip Smith. Davis thus far has led a charmed life, and probably will eek out another close one. Smith? Not so sure but I’ve spent no time on the ground in either of these areas. Thus, just gut feelings here.

    GA-9: Will there be a runoff? I think Collins had the early lead and Zoller has the current momentum. If she can maintain that, she starts the sprint ahead assuming there is a runoff. I make no pretense of being able to predict what a Hall County voter will do, however. Again, just my gut feeling of this race as an outside observer.

    GA-12: Jump. Ball. If i had to guess I’ll say Anderson and McLeod in a runoff, with Allen just missing the cut. But I don’t have to guess so I won’t.

    T-SPLOST: Despite the polls, I can’t shake the feeling that it’s dang close in metro Atlanta. I think it loses in every region that touches metro Atlanta, because these folks are convinced that their money is going to MARTA. Wouldn’t surprise me if that is the autopsy result from much of South Georgia too.

    Gambling: Yes
    Human Life: Yes
    Ethics: 75%+ Yes

    And at 7:00pm, the clock begins on who will begin floating themselves as a potential candidate to run for U.S. Senate. (Sit down Senator Hill, you’ve already tried that)

  10. sunkawakan says:

    Just a couple of predictions.

    Michael Caldwell over Charlice Byrd, State House 20

    If the Rogers-Beach race is close, say 3-4 points, in Cherokee, then Beach takes it with the Fulton vote.

  11. saltycracker says:

    As TSPLOST fails the politicians will teach the plebians what retribution is all about…between nothing and toll roads. This is a worry prediction preferring a morph into a responsible Plan B.

    • The Last Democrat in Georgia says:

      T-SPLOST was already a failure before the election and was a failure from the moment that it was conceived as concept of putting the bare minimal funding of long-overdue important transportation improvements up for a vote as if they are completely optional is totally asinine.

  12. seenbetrdayz says:

    I’d have never thought the world would end because a tax increase failed, but man, reading these comments.

    If folks feel that badly about it, cut a check and send it in to the GA D.O.T.

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