National Journal has ranked the 75 Congressional seats most likely to switch from one political party to another this fall.
The Georgia District 12 seat now held by Democrat John Barrow of
Savannah Augusta is ranked the 14th most likely to change hands:
Republican state legislators targeted Barrow via redistricting earlier in his career, and he survived. The latest attempt planted the Blue Dog Democrat in a solidly conservative seat, though, and he’ll have a major challenge on his hands against whoever emerges from a bruising, contested Republican primary. Centrist Democratic groups are already on TV in Savannah praising Barrow’s moderate record, but Republicans will counter in the fall with clips of Barrow claiming to have worked “hand in hand” with Obama during a tough Democratic primary in 2010. That could be enough to unseat Barrow in a district where Obama might struggle to top 40 percent of the vote.
I have long thought that Barrow was virtually certain to lose this fall because of the conservative lean of the newly drawn district, but after watching tonight’s debate among the four prospective Republican challengers, I’d say there’s definitely hope for Barrow. More on that when the video of the debate is posted online.
Of the 75 seats deemed by National Journal as most likely to change parties, just over half are currently held by Republicans.