Early Absentee and Early Voting Exceeds 2008

Nearly 150,000 Georgians have already voted before Election Day in the Republican nomination race for President. (Side note: 24,000 Democrats have voted early, too)

That compares to about 120,000 who voted in the Republican Presidential Preference Primary prior to the 2008 Primary Election Day.

The early voting pattern seems to be benefitting Gingrich. The “old third district”, which is composed of a large amount of Gingrich’s former congressional district circa the 1980s, has a strong turnout, as does the general area in and near his sixth congressional district circa the 1990s (Cobb/N Fulton).

Mike Seigle has compiled quite a bit of research for this report. In fact, the information below is essentially all his, and I’m just reporting it to you.

Below are the numbers of early/absentee voters broken out by the 13  OLD congressional lines (meaning the lines we have been operating under for the past ten years. Breaking it all out by the 14 new districts would have been preferred, but would definitely have been too much for a volunteer project today…)

# GOP early voters    % of overall early GOP vote

1       11,166                  7.6

2       6,873                  4.7  (South Georgia, where Santorum has polled well)

3       17,846                12.2  (much of this area is from Gingrich’s district in the ’80s)

4       4,670                  3.2   (Romney won the 4th in 2008/the DeKalb district)

5       2,529                  1.7   (Much of City of Atlanta; often considered a likely Romney area)

6       15,817                 10.8   (much of this area is from Gingrich’s district in the ’90s)

7       10,792                 7.4

8       12,349                 8.4

9       19,587                 13.4   (North Georgia, where Gingrich has polled well)

10     15,932                 10.9

11     16,140                  11.0

12     6,480                   4.4

13     6,514                    4.4

Total  146,695            100.0


One comment

  1. Great data Mark. I’m not sure 2008 is the perfect comparison though – early voting period is I believe longer now (25 days instead of 5) and I believe more and more Georgians have shifted to voting early.

    In the 2010 general election, roughly 788k of the 2008 Republican presidential primary voters cast ballots (only slightly fewer Democratic 2008 primary voters cast ballots – not a good year for Dems with independents). Of these 788k voters, 268k (34%) voted early.

    So on the one hand you could argue that 1/3 of the votes are already in which would mean a tiny turnout of roughly 450k. On the other you could argue that ’12 will be just like ’08 meaning the final total will be even higher than ’08 – over 1,000,000. That hasn’t been the case in other states though.

    I’m guessing that it will look more like the ’04 Democratic primary – incumbent President in the other party crowded out some of the premium candidates yet still some excitement. My guess off the top of my head – 725k total turnout. Let the games begin.

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