Romney Regains Lead, But Check Again In 5 Minutes, OK?

February 21, 2012 16:20 pm

by Mike Hassinger · 9 comments

Romney 32%- Santorum 30% – Gingrich 9%- Paul 7%  -That’s what the current poll from Rosetta Stone and the Michigan Information & Research Service says. Their poll of 420 likely Michigan voters yesterday showed the two front runners in a statistical dead heat, with Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul statistically tied in the single digits. A week ago, Santorum led by 9% and nearly two weeks ago, Romney led by 15%. The politically scientific term for this is “topsy-turvy.”

According to John Garst, President of Rosetta Stone Communications, “Michigan remains extremely close; however recent polls conducted over the last few days indicate that there has been a fundamental momentum shift back to Mitt Romney.”

The poll also indicates that being from Michigan is helping Romney in Michigan, says Steve Mitchell, President of Mitchell Research and Communications.

“Romney’s lead is also being fueled by the 25% of the voters who say they are “more likely” to vote for Romney because he was born and raised in Michigan.  With those voters, Romney leads Santorum by a whopping 40% (59%-19%) while he trails by 11% (34%-23%) among those who say it would make them “less likely” to vote for him based on that information or that it would make “no difference.”  Clearly, being from Michigan is a huge factor for Romney,” said Mitchell. 

If Michigan’s favorite son is having to fight for his political life in his home state, how is Georgia’s favorite son doing in his home adopted state? Well, a recent InsiderAdvantage Poll (Disclosure: an organization I work for) shows: Gingrich 26% Romney 24% Santorum 23% Paul 12%

To an audience in Fayette County, Gingrich compared the GOP presidential contest to a roller coaster: “This has been a little bit like riding a roller coaster. In fact, I tell folks it’s a little bit like the roller coaster at Disney that’s in the dark,” he said. “If you’ve ever ridden Space Mountain, you don’t know what’s coming next. You don’t know where you were, and you’re not sure where you’re going.”

Well, we know it’s NOT going to Michigan, anyway. And so does Newt, who will be skipping Michigan, paying lip service to Arizona, and concentrating his campaign efforts in Georgia and Tennessee.

Mark Rountree February 21, 2012 at 5:01 pm

Georgia poll released today by another firm apparently currently has a three-way dead heat in Georgia with Gingrich still hanging on to the lead by a couple points. However, the current national direction (“direction of the week”) seems to now be affecting his campaign here, as well.

Insider shows Gingrich 26, Romney 24, Santorum 23, Paul 12.

Mike Hassinger February 21, 2012 at 5:47 pm

5th paragraph?

Mark Rountree February 21, 2012 at 11:06 pm

New contacts.

And you type tiny.

;)

John Konop February 21, 2012 at 10:09 pm

I am no pollster, but I will tell you the anti-birth control/prenatal stance is not playing well, especially soccer moms. I was at a gymnastic meet for my youngest and the soccer moms let it fly about this issue. This could be behind the Romney surge. I wonder how the female vote numbers look per candidate?

KD_fiscal conservative February 21, 2012 at 10:44 pm

Gingrich is fading, and Santorum is benefiting, but the fact is, a selective look at Santorum’s record hasn’t been blasted through the airwaves yet, although the Paul campaign just came out with a clever ad that does just that(http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/02/ron-paul-santorum-is-very-liberal/). When the big SuperPac money starts throwing mud, some of it is going to stick (b/c there is much evidence to support that his is infact a Big Gov’t, Bush era “Compassonate” Conservative, not the ‘true conservative’ he keeps telling people he is). If you couple that with his wacko views on contraception that the media will relentlessly report on, its not going to look good for Santorum, I guarantee it.

Mike Hassinger February 22, 2012 at 8:01 am

John, you should know by now that anecdotes are not data.

John Konop February 22, 2012 at 9:56 am

I agree, that is why I was asking the experts like you about the trend. But as a businessman, I do listen to customers. and if I hear a trend, I study the problem asap. I realize business and politics are the same, but I have learned over time if I hear a consistent issue from multiple sources, way more than not, we have a problem we must solve asap.

….I wonder how the female vote numbers look per candidate?…….

Doug Deal February 22, 2012 at 11:27 am

I just asked around and the people I asked said that they are. So I guess that kind of proves you wrong Mike.

chefdavid February 21, 2012 at 6:29 pm

When is the Michigan vote? I am tired of hearing about it.

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