Iowa Prediction Thread

It’s time to stop the talk and start casting votes. Today is Iowa caucus day as it’s expected that around 120,000 rural white evangelicals (read: flyover country illiterates) will begin the winnowing down process. In fairness to northeastern white city-slicker Andrea Mitchell, she did point out that these bunch of Iowa hicks help launch Barack Obama’s path to the Presidency.

So, what will happen today? Who will finish where? Who will drop out tomorrow? How many occupiers will get arrested? Will Anonymous hack in and hijack the vote?

Here are my prediction for the vote percentages:

Santorum 25%
Romney 24%
Paul 20%
Perry 18%
Gingrich 9%
Bachmann 2.5%
Roemer 1%
Hunstman .5%

With New Hamshire only a week away I don’t think anyone drops out. 34 occupiers get arrested outside the DNC HQ protesting Obama signing the NDAA but none at any Caucus meetings.

What are your predictions?


  1. Patrick T. Malone says:

    I predict the top 3 will say the Iowa results are significant, the bottom 4 will say Iowa does not represent their national appeal, pundits everywhere will say they were right regardless of the outcome and Iowans will say Na, Na, Na, Na, Goodbye.

    • I would say the top 4 in Iowa matter and perhaps the top 5. Gingrich still polls well in South Carolina and Florida and I would expect Perry to do well there as well.

  2. Three Jack says:

    1. Santorum (because Andrea Mitchell is correct for once)
    2. Paul (flyover county illiterates also show up)
    3. Romney
    4. Gingrich
    5. Bachman
    6. Perry

  3. John Konop says:

    1) Romney money and organization wins in the long run……………
    2) Santorum close via social conservatives who do not care and or know about fiscal policy. Santorum ie 7.2 trillion dollar Drug Prescription Bill, No Child Left Behind, Bridges to Nowhere…………………. does voting record matter?
    3) Paul also close via strong young foot soldiers who will de well in the cold

    Next tier

    4) Perry great hair but………………
    5) Newt , Romney hit him hard and wide with outside cash!
    6) Bachman not invited to the frat house……………

  4. w4nd3rl0st says:

    I live in Iowa and the weather here is really nice so there should be good turnout at the polls. From what I gather (local news, church conversations, watercooler talk, etc) I think Mitt will win by 5-7 points. He still won’t get more than 38% of the vote, but he has a lot of strength. In my opinion he is the most presidential of the top candidates and this is important to Iowans. They will support the person most likely to beat Obama, pure and simple.

    Perry might do better than people think. A lot of small town people like him here. Ron Paul will get his usual 20% of quacks to come out and wave his flag. Santorum is a little harder to guess. He has been campaigning in Iowa for 6-months almost non-stop. He appears to be the “fashionable” pick, but I don’t think he will get enough support to win. A “win” for him is just finishing in the top 3. I don’t think he can beat Obama, so he is not likely to finish better than 2nd.

    So here are my picks:
    1) Mitt
    2) Santorum
    3) Perry
    4) Paul
    5+) Who cares…

    I won’t spend any time here defending my state from likes of Andrea Mitchell other than to say that she obviously didn’t spend any real time in our state. Iowa is 4th in high school graduation rates, 4th in the number of public libraries and we have very low unemployment (5.6% just before the holiday). I moved here from Michigan for work and would never move back. We might not fit her definition of a qualified voting population, but we get a vote too, like it or not.

  5. GaConservative23 says:

    1. Romney
    2. Santorum
    3. Paul

    Bachmann’s done, Perry and Newt have enough money to make it to SC. Romney wins NH. Perry, Newt, and Santorum split the conservative vote the rest of the way out and give Romney the nomination ala McCain in ’08.

    Only the difference this time is that Romney is actually the best candidate out of the bunch and he beats Obama in the general.

    There is much rejoicing.

  6. slyram says:

    I predict to Iowa GOP voters will not listen to moderates who have told them that Huntsman is the best chance to take the White House back because the Center digs the dude.

  7. Vox Populi says:

    My predictions…
    1. Paul- the bots will work hard
    2. Romney – to much money
    3. Santorum- have no idea…best chance for theocracy ?
    4. Gingrich- millions in negative ads beat him down and absence of debates for the last 3 weeks
    5. Bachmann- Born in same town as serial killer John Wayne Gacy
    6. Perry- Not Huntsman
    7. Huntsman- “They pick corn in Iowa. They pick presidents in New Hampshire.”

    If I were voting:
    1. Gingrich- smartest man in the room
    2. Huntsman- best governor in the race
    3. Paul- the paulbots are getting to me
    4. Perry- Don’t mess with Texas
    5. Romney- Hair and been running for 6 years, I’m starting to feel sorry for him
    6. Santorum- doesn’t have crazy eyes
    7. Bachmann- crazy eyes

  8. seenbetrdayz says:

    I’d say Ron Paul in ‘at least’ second. Romney has been steady and appeals to people looking for a candidate who has a good physical appearance but isn’t consistent on the issues. Ron Paul fares well with people who look for consistency but is a bit lacking in the physical appearance department.

    One thing I think Paul has going for him, is the potential showing of ‘unlikely’ republican voters who haven’t been polled extensively. Democratic caucuses tonight are going to be for housekeeping matters and chili contests, and with the mostly open system in Iowa, there’s not much to keep bored democrats from inviting themselves instead to the republican caucus and voting for the one candidate on Team (R) who will actually bring home the troops and restore the Bill of Rights. Call it insurance.

  9. USA1 says:

    Ronald Reagan’s corpse – 56%
    Benjamin Netanyahu – 21%
    Sarah Palin – 15%
    Donald Trump – 7%
    Piyush Jindal – 1%

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