I got a personal email from the POTUS this morning (!) informing me that Barack Obama is filing papers to run for reelection. Whew. Wasn’t sure if he would or wouldn’t.
With that bit of suspense lifted…his campaign manager also thinks Georgia will be in play next year.
In an interview with the New York Times published Sunday, Jim Messina, who will run the president’s re-elect said:
“If you look at the new census numbers, you would think that Georgia would be in play. You would definitely think that Arizona would be in play — as I think it is. Those are states where we didn’t play in last time.”
Of course that would help explain why the First Lady and other high-ranking administration officials are visiting the state in recent months.
Now do I think Georgia will be in play? No. I think at best he’ll be able to get 45% of the vote here. Then again, I’d like tot think his top operatives are a little smarter than me with slightly better access to data than I am. Still looking at the political landscape where Republicans have manged to increase their power almost every year for the past 10 years, really not sure what his path to victory is here. (Another thing–the article notes the campaign is looking at states other than NC and VA for their victory due to the GOP gains there last year. I read and that and said “DUDE! If you’re worried about those states, like have you seen Georgia’s results?)
Getting back to Obama, his email to me said:
“We’re doing this now because the politics we believe in does not start with expensive TV ads or extravaganzas, but with you — with people organizing block-by-block, talking to neighbors, co-workers, and friends. And that kind of campaign takes time to build.”
He added:
We’ll start by doing something unprecedented: coordinating millions of one-on-one conversations between supporters across every single state, reconnecting old friends, inspiring new ones to join the cause, and readying ourselves for next year’s fight.
For what it’s worth, I think Obama wins reelection easily next year due to a lackluster GOP field and the Sisyphean task it is to unseat an incumbent.
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It’s not as hard to unseat a president as a senator. Just ask George H.W., Gerald, & Jimmy.
What did all three have in common? Good candidates running against them (note that I didn’t say Good Presidents, though I may feel that way about some). Such a thing has yet to emerge this year for the GOP, and it gets increasingly unlikely the closer we get.
A potential $1Bn pol fund, declining unemployment, millions of newly insured voters (many of whom were not Dems) AND a pool of lackluster oppo GOP candidates, will all be a push for POTUS.
But Amercian voters are becoming aware of the deficit disorder and are restless. Anyone, up to and including former Dem from MA, who ‘looks Presidential’ might be all they need to express their dissatisfaction with everything Pres. Obama, including his choice of White House dog:
http://www.sanfranciscosentinel.com/?p=22722
Poor thing, PETA ought to get involved for ‘pol abuse’ of an animal.
Just elected all GOP constitutional officers in Georgia. I don’t see their logic but then again what do I know.
Let’s all keep in mind at this point in 2007, I’m pretty sure the consensus was that a one-term Senator with a funny name who is African-American and with a light resume could NEVER become POTUS. There were doubts that a black guy would ever be able to win.
So w/r/t candidates it behooves us to remember strange things happen.
Who? We knew that last race came down to Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani.
Yeah & Roy Barnes ….
What’s the harm in going out and telling someone you think a state is “in play” for your campaign.
I agree. At this point, you have to assume that all 57 states are in play.
Hats off, Charlie! Could be the line of the year.
Black people are 30% of Georgia. For the sake of this discussion, lets say BHO gets 90% of that vote. To win a majority, BHO only needs 32% of the remaining voters.
Which he could not get in 2008 with the wind at his back and John McCain as his GOP opponent. Regardless who the nominee is in 2012, they will surely be a better nominee than John McCain.
Trump and Bachman are better candidates? Really?
if either of them are the nominee, i’ll eat my hat…
if any one of the many clowns is nominated from what is quickly turning into a circus, I too will join the doc in hat consumption
Speaking of detestable potential GOP candidates, I heard Gov. Hailey Barbour speak recently. Hats of to the Governor for his good work in MS, yet, I could not listen to that man for four years.
The last I heard from him is I heard him is when he was bragging about how Mississippi is the “safest state in the union for the unborn.” Ironically, his state is near the bottom of the list for perinatal mortality from natural causes….
Darn – haven’t heard one of his talks – hate to hear that when running out of options…….
The problem with this logic is that census figures don’t vote. Are the demographics much different than they were in 2008 or 2010? I don’t think so. The actual voting evidence shows that this is a BS comment that shouldn’t surprise us from a political campaign.
Agreed. Even in a the horrible GOP year, allegations of “liberal RINOism” and high black voter turnout , McCain still carried Georgia convincingly. The Obama folks may try to create enthusiasm by citing “striking different census numbers” but they know just as well as we do, he isn’t going to win this state.
The trends do not look good long term, but the GOP should have no problems next year. No one is going to spend money in Georgia. No major statewide races, no senate race, no Gov race, few contested local seats. The 14th Cong Seat will only be contested in the Primary. Money will be spend on turning out the base to avoid loses, but no real money will be spend by either party for the Pres election.
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