Sanford Bishop, Austin Scott, Ross Tolleson & 2012

February 25, 2011 14:13 pm

by keith · 18 comments

From my Feb. 15 post on Peanut Politics.

Don’t rule it out! With a special session on the horizon to re-draw the congressional districts its not out of the realm of possibility that republicans could put Austin Scott into the 2nd Congressional District to go up against Sanford Bishop i 2012.

Here’s why I think it may happen

I remember back in 2009 when republicans were trying to find a challenger to Jim Marshall for 2010. Early on it was thought that State Senator Ross Tolleson would make a run at Marshall, but he decided against it at the time, because according to a interview he did with the Macon Telegraph back then, he wanted to wait until his twin daughters finish high school. This was back in 2009 when he said this. He has made no secret that he wants to run for congress & 2012 seems like the best time since the GOP now have control of the House.

For more continue reading: Bishop, Scott, Tolleson & 2012: Peanut Politics

KD_fiscal conservative February 25, 2011 at 2:36 pm

Actually, you can go ahead and rule that out. I can explain later, but it has to do with Obama DOJ, VRA updates, Bishops desire to maintain power, Bishop’s strategically located “permanent residence and the state avoiding expensive litigation. Also, not to be an ass, but if you want your redistricting analysis to be taken seriously you may want to edit for basic grammar and such, I think PP front page deserves better.

KD_fiscal conservative February 25, 2011 at 2:41 pm

But most importantly, the GAGOP has no reason to shaft Scott like that after his hard fought victory.

Engineer February 25, 2011 at 4:04 pm

I have to agree. It would be a major slap to the face of Scott by the GA GOP if they did.

Lee Benedict February 25, 2011 at 8:59 pm

” Also, not to be an ass, but if you want your redistricting analysis to be taken seriously you may want to edit for basic grammar and such, I think PP front page deserves better.” Fair enough. However…

“…Bishops desire to maintain power, Bishop’s strategically located “permanent residence and the state avoiding expensive litigation…” You may want to take your own advice.

Doug Deal February 25, 2011 at 9:03 pm

No thanks. I want Austin in the 8th.

Harry February 27, 2011 at 12:49 am
Romegaguy February 27, 2011 at 9:38 am

Bishop’s District and Scott’s District will exchange enough voters between the two of them that both will be made far safer.

CobbGOPer February 27, 2011 at 4:06 pm

If they go after any Democrat via redistricting, it will be John Barrow.

jeff February 28, 2011 at 8:41 am

Why would they go after John Barrow? What makes his district winnable? He is more likely to work with and vote with republicans than Bishop is.

CobbGOPer February 28, 2011 at 8:48 am

They can more easily split some of the democrat areas out there with a new district and create one that Ben Harbin could win.

CobbGOPer February 28, 2011 at 8:50 am

However I guess I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of another metro Atlanta district. Would love to see one Karen Handel could run in, but I don’t think they’ll mess with Tom Price.

KD_fiscal conservative February 28, 2011 at 9:16 am

Population growth as been in north Georgia, and word is Cagle wants that new seat. Additionally, since the Gov and Lt Gov are from Hall, I think there will be pressure to make that the center of the new district anyway, which would also include north Gwinnett.

jeff, Barrow’s district’s democrat area can be diluted by adding them to some of the surrounding districts where Republicans have won very easily(65++%). Barrow may still win, but that will increase the chance of unseating him. As far as Barrow more willing to work with Republicans, it doesn’t matter, when the GOP see’s and opportunity to take out a dem, they will. As I have written about in the past, it would be too difficult to make the 2nd less democratic, so that is almost out of the question. I say almost only because there are a few state legislators, who I have talked to, that say they’re still going to to push the GOP leadership, but I still don’t see it happening.

Ben Harbin winning a congressional election….I certainly hope not.

CobbGOPer February 28, 2011 at 11:17 am

OK, I could see the guv and Ralston trying this, but seriously, they’re going to shaft Tom Graves (based out of Gainesville if I recall correctly)? I know the law doesn’t require Congressmen to actually live in the districts they represent, but when is the last time you saw such a thing? Graves would either have to move, or primary Cagle.

Also, I just can’t see the legislature abiding such an overt move. Deal and the rest of the Gainesville Mafia are already facing heaps of criticism; such a move on behalf of Cagle would seem extremely unwise…

CobbGOPer February 28, 2011 at 11:20 am

Besides that, this new seat will be up for contest next year. Cagle just won a four year term as Lt. Guv. You’re telling me he gives that up to run for Congress? Perhaps, but it doesn’t seem to make sense for Cagle. But hey, what do I know…

drjay February 28, 2011 at 11:58 am

graves is more from nw ga, so actually a new ne ga district would make sense…and not be a problem for graves…the idea of messing with austin seems a little out there considering the resources the gop exhausted to finally knock off marshall, also i thought the congresscritters of the same party were usually given some deference by the ledge during this process…

CobbGOPer February 28, 2011 at 2:18 pm

You’re right, he’s from Ranger, not Gainesville.

Well, I hope Deal goes ahead and tries to get another NE district. More cronies for his system. And Cagle leaving will free up David Shafer to run for Lt. Governor, so he can bootlick for Nathan until he leaves office.

KD_fiscal conservative February 28, 2011 at 11:00 pm

“the idea of messing with austin seems a little out”

Its not just a little out, it far, far out. There is no reason to believe Austin is going to be screwed for any reason. I don’t think Keith realizes the severity of displacing an incumbent, and that it is only done in the most extreme of circumstances(like in the Branes plan of 2000).

KD_fiscal conservative February 28, 2011 at 11:02 pm

Yeah, I’m not sure how the legislature will feel about it, but this whole process is so damn politically charged, they may be cajoled into voting for it anyway.

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