By Request: Predictions

Yep, look into your crystal ball and tell us what the world will look like tomorrow.  

As for my guesses, they’re  worth what you paid for them:

I think Republicans sweep.

Deal, without a runoff.  51.3%

Gary Black gets the highest percentage for Republicans

Austin Scott picks up GA-8

I’m not willing to predict GA-2.  Nail biter, closer than the polls currently suggest.

Amendment 2 passes.  Amendment 1 fails.  Statewide referendum passes.

3-5?  Total crapshoot.

That’s all I got.  But hopefully, mercifully, whether I’m right or wrong, this will be over tomorrow.

111 comments

  1. Jeff says:

    Some Republicans that deserve to win today:

    Austin Scott

    Stephen Mullis (Tift County Commission)

    Steve Davis (HD 109)

    Stephen Allison [HD 8]

    As far as predictions:

    It is POSSIBLE for GOP to gain a veto-proof State Senate today, if both Thompsons are beat (Curt more likely than Steve), Horacena Tate is beat (her opponent is roughly matching her in fundraising, and has a better online presence, but we’ll see how it turns out), and Lester Jackson is beat (no idea about the demographics in that district, but fundraising is solid on both sides and Gaster has QUITE a bit more online presence). Stoner and Henson challengers both face overcoming a 60/40 trend for the incumbent (as does Craig Prewitt), but if the expected GOP wave is big enough, it just may be possible. (Those 60/40 splits were in part WITH Obama in 2008.)

    Best bet: GOP + 1, MAYBE 2-3 in Senate, same in House – though nowhere NEAR enough for veto-proof in House. Outside chance Dems go +3-4 in House by picking off Chambers and some combination of Harden, Dempsey, Allison, and Davis.

    • jeff says:

      See Jeff these past two posts are where I really don’t understand your reasoning. You say you like independent politicians who are for smaller government and vote principle over party. In the first post you say that no matter who wins CD2, we lose. You have said over and over that Keown is just as bad as Bishop. In the next post you say that representatives Scott and Allison should win. I have nothing against Scott or Allison. I think they are both great candidates but if you compare their records to Keown’s, where is the difference? If anything Keown has voted against his party and the majority a few more times than Scott and many more times than Allison. Your reasoning makes absolutely no sense.

      • Jeff says:

        Scott has lost a Chairmanship because he refused to go along with his Party’s wishes. Keown never did.

        Allison voted NO on Super Speeder, Keown voted YES. Same on overriding the State Constitution to give Ga Power the ability to screw Ga rate payers.

        • jeff says:

          Keown never got a Chairmanship because he refused to ever go straight along party lines. Your reasoning is insane.

          • Jeff says:

            You’re telling me Keown couldn’t play the game well enough in a chamber of 180 to be genuinely effective at any level.

            What makes you think he’ll do any better in a chamber of 435?

            At least Bishop can play the game. I may not always like HOW he plays the game or that he is winning- much in the same way as I am in no way a fan of Florida – but you gotta respect the man for at least being able to play the game well.

            Keown can’t even do that.

            • jeff says:

              So you want a politician who plays games? You just stated that Scott lost a chairmanship for not giving in to the party? That shows me he doesn’t play the game either. Which is it? Do you like politicians that play the game and bring your bigger government or do you like politicians who don’t play the game and just represent the people who sent them to office? Your reasoning is insane again.

              • jeff says:

                I just wish you would quit attacking Keown by saying he is the same or worse than Bishop. That has to be one of the dumbest statements I have seen. Then you turn around and praise representatives who have basically the same record as his. Yes Keown voted for a couple of bills you don’t agree with but those representatives you speak of also voted for bills that you didn’t agree with. Bills that Keown voted against. So all of them have a couple of votes that you might not agree with. How does that make him worse than Bishop who voted for the healthcare bill, stimulus bills, capntrade, etc…. How is Keown worse than a congressman who has been investigated by the GBI for sending federal money to a program paying his kids for work not performed. How is Keown worse than a congressman that has been sending scholarship money to his family that was supposed to help needy kids in the district? If you want to continue to attack Keown quit hiding your reasons. Why don’t you just come out and tell everyone that you don’t like Keown because you don’t think preachers should enter politics. Quit trying to disguise your dislike for him behind his record.

                • Jeff says:

                  I’ll let another preacher tell you why Keown is the same/possibly worse than Bishop:

                  Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under the robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated, but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their consciences. -CS Lewis

                  Neither Bishop nor Keown want to treat me as the adult I am. But eventually, Bishop will turn a blind eye to what I’m doing, if for no other reason than he wants to help his friends out with something else. Keown, believing he is “helping” us, will only further cripple us. (Which brings to mind another great quote, this one from Remember the Titans when Boone confronts Yoast about “helping” the black players.)

                  • jeff says:

                    Again another post that made absolutely no sense. You can’t come up with a good reason for saying Keown is just as bad as Bishop. What has Keown ever done that made you think he wanted to be an omnipotent moral busybody? You contradict yourself so many times it is ridiculous. Several months ago you attacked Keown as the establishment candidate. Just a couple of days ago you attacked him on facebook for being to ineffective and being pushed out of his state house seat because the establishment didn’t like him. You say his record is bad but then praise others with the same or worse record. You make absolutely no sense. Give me one example of how Keown doesn’t want to treat you as an adult? What can you show me to prove what you say? How will he further cripple us? What can you show me to prove it? You make all the crazy statements but you never back anything up. In fact you tend to contradict yourself when you try to back it up like you did in the posts above.

                    • Jeff says:

                      I have yet to contradict myself, and I’ve already given 3 concrete examples of where Scott and Allison are better than Keown.

                      You sure are doing a doubleplusgood job of being a mouthpiece for Big Brother though, and trying to twist words.

                    • jeff says:

                      You are hopeless and crazy. Nothing Keown has done warrants how you act. You are just really angry that he is a preacher trying to serve people in politics. You are also really angry that he soundly won the primary with 81% of the vote over two other candidates, one of which you endorsed with your great blog. It has to be obvious to you that 90% of the people in your area don’t agree with anything you are saying about Keown. Get over it. Move on. Quit running your mouth and trying to degrade a good honest man that has accomplished more and reached more people than you will ever hope to do in a lifetime. Keown has more integrity, honesty, and courage in his little finger than you will ever realize.

                    • B Balz says:

                      When a fellow lawmaker calls Keown an ’empty suit’ I listen. Good luck Mr. Bishop, your District lost a good rep.

    • macho says:

      Tate has no chance of losing, it wouldn’t matter if her opponent spent a million dollars and had a 3D online presence. The demographics are insurmountable.

    • Tiberius says:

      No chance in God’s green earth Steve Thompson, Curt Thompson, Horacena Tate or lester Jackson lose. none of them.

      I used to live in Horacena Tate’s district. It is deceptive b/c it has the plush GOP Buckhead precincts around Moores Mill and West Wesley. It is easy to forget that district runs down to the Ga Dome and voted for Obama @67%.

      Steve Thompson is on the hit list every year. His district is only becoming more African American.

  2. John Douglas says:

    Amendment 1 & 2 fail. GA Senate Republicans gain one more seat somewhere, 36 total, two short of 2/3s majority. House is a wash, some wins and loses on both sides.

    US House, +53 for the GOP, (if a genuine tidal wave forms tonight, keep an eye on GA 12) US Senate, 53-47 for Democrats, Harry Reid………….. too close to call, probably loses but not willing to make that prediction.

  3. Herb says:

    Barnes over Deal and Monds 48-43-9. Barnes wallops in the Runoff 55-45. Porter beats Cagle 50-48. Kemp 59-38. Hodges over Olens and ‘Smart’ 46-45-9. Hodges takes the Runoff 53-47. Barge over Martin and Willis49-42-9. Martin shocks all by picking off Barge 51-49 in the Runoff. Powell 52-46-2 over Black and Cherry. Hudgens over Squires and Bruce 53-43-4. Butler over Hicks and Costa 49.9-40-10.1. Hicks over Butler 50.5-49.5 in the Runoff. Isakson over Thurmond and Donovan 48-41-11. Thurmond over Isakson 51-49 in the Runoff. Dems hold GA-2 and GA-4. Repubs hold GA-1, GA-3, GA-6, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, and GA-11. Repubs pick up GA-5, GA-8, GA-12, and GA-13. Dems pick up the State House. Repubs narrowly hold the State Senate.

    • Jeff says:

      Perhaps the easiest of your predictions to call false (there are a few) is the State House.

      Aint. Gonna. Happen.

      As Jace likes to say, “Republican State. Republican Year” – and at least a few of the 30 or so the Dems are challenging in are incumbents who won in the 70/30 range even WITH Obama bolstering D numbers.

      • Herb says:

        Republican, don’t get too excited! The voters are awake and on to your tricks, back-room dealing, and transparent corruption. They are smarter that you people ever have or ever will acknowledge. You will go down to defeat in just about 4/5 of the seats you put up candidates in. A new day will dawn upon GA in January, and it wont be business as usual anymore. The voters are ON to you, Republican. You have been warned.

    • AnyoneElse2010 says:

      Hitting the sauce early this morning? No way, no how, never. Those are the worst picks I have ever seen.

    • TheEiger says:

      Herb, this is a joke right? You can’t be serious. I agree with a few of your predictions. Like the Gov race going into a runoff. But you are crazy tho think even half of those picks are going to happen. “Barnes wallops in the runoff” Democrats don’t vote in runoffs. Lets go all the way back to Saxby and Martin to prove that. What a joke.

      • Gary Cooper says:

        Actually, lets go all the way back to a run-off the Democrats were so furious over that they changed state law: 1992 US Senate race between Coverdale and Fowler. Fowler lost because the Democratic voters proved they don’t vote in general election run-offs. Democrats changed the law and we got Max Cleland as a Senator in 1996.

      • kyleinatl says:

        Well, apparently they do in the city of Atlanta when Democrats sent Mary Norwood packing last year, still worth celebrating I say.

  4. Max Power says:

    The Libertarian Party will win every race they contest and forever reshape Georgia politics.

    Wait that’s not right. Deal and Cagle win and continue to run this once great state into the ground.

  5. kyleinatl says:

    Safest prediction: Liz Carter, Fenn Little, and Ray McKinney all go home Tuesday night as runners-up, and no matter what else happens, I’ll open up a cold one on that fact alone.

    Austin beats Marshall
    I’m gonna say Sanford hangs onto CD 2

    Deal wins without a runoff, like I said previously with 53%.

    I’m 50-50 on an Amendment 2 prediction, but…it just depends on who is coming out to vote, who got swayed by the ads, and how many voted early before they saw them. Initially I would have said this thing fails, but after about 3 million in ad buys and no real organized opposition…we’ll see.

  6. Ron Daniels says:

    I don’t really see the amendments passing. There is a large contingent of older voters who generally always vote no. That said, there are a bunch of folks who generally vote for the bad amendments based on their wording. So that’s a toss-up.

    I’m concerned about a couple of state-wide races. It’s a matter of turn-out. I wouldn’t count Ken Hodges out until he concedes, nor would I count Hicks out until he concedes.

    • Jack Smith says:

      I agree, Ron. The forces of filth and arrogance will push hard for the Ken Hodges disgrace to win. He’s spent an entire campaign (primary + general) hiding his true record of incompetence, payoffs and corruption (this doesn’t even take into account his bizarre personal life, obscene driving record and sewer-level personal morals).

      When I cast my early vote against the Hodges filth, it was like flushing a toilet. I hope the rest of Georgia sends the Hodges filth down the tubes as well.

      Ken Hodges: A Prostitute, Not a Politician.

      • Herb says:

        Hodges isn’t a street-corner operator, my friend. He’s like you and me, a regular citizen who is fed up with the incompetence in our law system. He has served with dignity, dilligence, honor, and statesmanship. If GA is smart, they’ll reject that Dictator wannabe Olens for a real servant of the people.

        • Jack Smith says:

          “He’s like you and me, a regular citizen…..”

          Didn’t know there were that many regular citizens at his country club? Most regular citizens have real jobs and don’t live off inherited wealth or payoff jobs from people they’ve given favors to while in public office.

          “He has served with dignity, dilligence, honor, and statesmanship…..”

          If that’s what you call selling favors to friends then resigning his office and taking a highly paid job from the recipient of those favors.

          Gee–are you so stupid as to actually believe Ken Hodges’ propaganda, or are you just a paid whore?

          • Charlie says:

            Jack, we get it. You don’t like Hodges.

            But you’re currently dialed up to an “eleven”

            Bring it back to about a seven or eight, if you would please.

  7. saltycracker says:

    Whoever wins, life will go on, government will tighten services and a larger portion of the budget will go to the payroll, pensions & benefits for our beloved public servants.

  8. Jeff says:

    A question about Amendments 3 and 4 that I just thought of. Maybe Senator Douglas or one of the other legislators (or Ron Daniels or another of our lawyers/lawyers in training) can answer it:

    How do the multi-year contracts play in with the State Constitution’s mandate of a *yearly* balanced budget?

    • TheEiger says:

      The Amendments are to change the State Constitution so that money for multi year projects don’t have to be upfront for the entire project. The money only has to be up front for that year’s worth of work on a particular project and not the entire life of the project. The state budget still will have to be balanced every year. I hope that makes a little since. I’m not sure if that explained it well or not.

  9. aoburns says:

    Herb in the middle of this string of posts is smoking some. But I certainly like loyalty. Thats what some candidates need when they have no chance. They still need supporters too.

    Deal squeeks it by.
    Isakson wins big time as for Scott.
    GA-2 close. Thats the interesting one.

  10. Insider Mike says:

    Charlie,

    Johnny is going to get the highest percentage, though Gary will be up there. And despite all the criticism on Peach Pundit, Casey will get 2nd highest.

        • ZazaPachulia says:

          Kemp will win huge. I voted for him twice this year… Unfortunately, I can’t say that about anyone else on the ballot in statewide races. All my other primary and runoff picks are already out of the picture. (‘cept Mike Crane, but he’s headed that way)

    • Charlie says:

      I’m quite happy to be wrong on Johnny’s vote. He got the highest. Congrats to him. Never took anything for granted, and worked the whole time like he was behind.

  11. Obis_Sister says:

    GOP takes both House and Senate in DC.

    In Georgia: Deal, Porter, Kemp, Olens, Hudgens all win. Isakson goes to runoff. Liz Carter wins. Austin Scott, Ray McKinney and Mike Keown win big. And in my last, best hope, Mike Crane beats David Scott for GA-13!

      • ZazaPachulia says:

        No way in hell David Scott loses. It just ain’t gonna happen. Scott is pretty popular in the heavily-Democratic district. I don’t often agree with the guy, but he deserves credit for having the best attendance record in the Georgia delegation (guess who had the worst, even before he resigned?). Plus, I give Scott props for passing resolutions honoring my favorite team’s quarterback, Ricky Dobbs of Douglasville (Go Navy, Beat Army!)

        • “Plus, I give Scott props for passing resolutions honoring my favorite team’s quarterback, Ricky Dobbs of Douglasville (Go Navy, Beat Army!)”

          And what exactly did that resolution accomplish? These types of silly resolutions honoring various people and groups are a waste of time. I don’t want to hear one more politician tell me they didn’t have time to work on an important issue so long as they keep doing this. If that QB needs recognition, that’s what the media outlets are for… not government.

          • ZazaPachulia says:

            The guy was honoring his constituent. Look, if you have the best attendance record in the Georgia Delegation, you should be able to take to the mostly vacant floor every once in a while and honor somebody who is doing great things for our country (Dobbs is headed to the fleet, not the NFL after this season… he isn’t a typical football player)

            • And I’m not saying the guy shouldn’t be honored… just do it in the AJC, on WSB or some other media outlet. I’m saying that if the only business on the floor is a resolution honoring people (whether it’s Dobbs, Ghandi, the pope or Mother Theresa) then turn off the lights and go home. We spend more in operating costs to have the lights and sound system on and paying the HVAC bill than necessary already. Stop working on these resolutions and get back to business. Sunday sales’ time has come. Get to working on that if you don’t have anything better to do.

          • kyleinatl says:

            No kidding, I once had a guy tell my group of fellow advocates while we were waiting in a congressional lobby, “Resolutions (like the one in question) are akin to taking the first 30 minutes of your business meeting to talk about your golf game”.

    • TheEiger says:

      You are as far off as Herb is just in the opposite direction. No way the Republicans win the Senate back. We don’t have the candidates to win in certain races. We win the House back by taking 53 congressional seats. The majority will switch early in the night dew to races in PA, OH and a few other here in the South. Unfortunately, McKinney, Carter and Crane aren’t going to be apart of the take over. Those districts are all drawn to slanted to the Dems. Scott sends Marshall packing. Keown and Bishop is going to be close. Even if Keown wins he probably will not be able to keep it as it is currently drawn due to the fact that it is a Majority Minority district.

  12. Hank Reardan says:

    The Libertarian cause at least 3 run offs. Monds will set a record for a libertarians across the nation for a gov.Race Kira Willis will get something north of 8%. Mike Thurmond will get the smallest vote % for a democrat. My guy Chuck Donovan will be close to the all time third party record for US Senate in Georgia which is around 5%. The only reason this one will not go to a run off is because Thurmond has ran such a bad campaign.And for some reason the GOP kool aide drinkers thinks the sun sets on Isaksons big government ass.
    Deal wins in Run off and Georgia will continue to be the Bubba state.
    I would always like to see my Libertarian party do better but we have run some of the best third party campaigns in the entire country.
    If you get a chance look at joining at http://www.lpgeorgia.com

    • Insider Mike says:

      And tomorrow Libertarians go back to their caves for another 23 months. No Libertarian will get north of 5. And if you insist on throwing around the ‘kool aide drinker’ label, then I’d throw it right back at you if you really think you’re anywhere near legitimate.

      And you’re still spelling your name wrong, Hank.

      • Jeff says:

        Insider:

        I speak with a modicum of authority (very small modicum, but as one of the higher profile Libertarian activists, some at least) when I say we’re not going anywhere. I personally plan on backing off over the next day or two, maybe even until Thanksgiving, with some of the public work, but I’ll be working to revamp some projects and set others in motion.

        Come Session, we’ll be right back in the middle of things – and to steal from Jeremy Camp, we’ll (hopefully) be speaking louder than before.

      • Hank Reardan says:

        Insider Mike I believe we have meet at my shop 🙂 (Viking metals)Maybe. You know the differece between me and your kool aide drinkers is I have worked on a GOP campaign (Paul brown and Ron paul) and I have voted for democrats also. If someone is the best candidate i will vote that wway. But has does anyone get excited over the top of the ticket for the GOP here in Georgia. do you guys have some good candidates YES (Austin Scott ,Mike Crane) So tonight when I go to the polls I will vote for the candidates who will fight for small government all the time not just not the half the hate
        Doug Craig (LNC member and political director in Ga)

      • Mike – sorry, but I don’t live in a cave. Perhaps no Libertarian will win today. But you can’t tell me that the Republicans and Democrats put up a full slate of honest, ethical candidates that are good choices for Georgia either. Sure, there’s some good ones there – but there are some Libertarians who were better choices than those put up by the other two parties.

        I didn’t vote for every Libertarian on my ballot, but I certainly wouldn’t have voted for Deal, Cagle or Isakson even if there were no other choices.

    • jeff says:

      I agree. People don’t hear much about CD2 but if Keown pulls the upset it will be much bigger than any other race in the state and will be one of the biggest upsets nationally. The last couple of polls show him in the lead. New York Times FiveThirtyEight shows Keown with a 59% chance to win versus Bishop’s 41%. They are predicting Keown 51%-Bishop49%. Larry Sabato Crystal Ball and Real Clear Politics have CD2 as Leaning Republican now. The landscape of the 2nd District has drastically changed. Keown started campaigning 15 months ago and promised to outwork Bishop. He has done that. He has raised over 1 million dollars for the campaign with 85% of it coming from within the district. Marshall has always been able to win in a Republican District so Scott beating him this year isn’t that big of an upset. If Keown ends up beating Bishop in a Democratic District that hasn’t had a Republican congressman in over 140 years it would be a huge upset. An upset that ranks up there with the biggest upsets in Georgia political history.

    • Herb says:

      He can’t. Bishop is very popular down there and the demographics are nearly insurmountable for any Republican to win. I have Bishop at 54-46.

        • Jeff says:

          If Bishop’s people turnout, Keown is toast.

          In 2006, white turnout outpaced black by 10% among females, 18% among males – and Bishop won in the 60/40 range.

          In 2008 (with Obama on ticket), white and black turnout was nearly even as a percent of registered voters of that demo, and Bishop blew Ferrell away by a more than 2 to 1 margin.

          • jeff says:

            Jeff, this is a totally different election from 2006 and 2008. Main difference is there is actually a candidate that the people of the district can and do believe can win. In those years the candidates had absolutely no funding and no organization to get their name out. Again this year Keown has raised over $1 Million and has a great grass roots organization and staff. Another big difference is the fact that in those years Bishop had a good portion of the white support. This year Bishop has lost that support thanks to a very liberal voting record over the last 2 years. You can’t compare 06 and 08 to this election.

            • Jeff says:

              Bishop’s voting record is no less Party line than it ever has been. You’re living in your own little bubble of Tea Party people and not listening to anyone else. I don’t get outside the Leesburg-Macon corridor very much, but I listen to people from all spectrums who do. This is going to be a fight, and I maintain 3things:

              a) This will be the closest election Bishop has faced in a decade, at least.

              b) It is completely uncallable at this point.

              c) Whoever wins, we lose.

              • jeff says:

                Bishop’s voting record used to be very conservative. He changed his voting habits after the Democrats took control of the house in 2006. It was his conservative ways that got him alot of republican support in the past. That support is gone. I hate to disappoint you but I am not part of the tea party movement and I can guarantee you that I don’t live in a bubble. I agree with you on A and B but your statement on C shows just how out of touch you are with reality and common sense. It is my belief that you have done way more harm than good to your Libertarian Party. You toot your own horn and paint yourself as such an activist. You go after certain candidates that you absolutely hate but completely ignore others. Seriously, the people in SWGA know how you are and really don’t want to have anything to do with you.

                • Jeff says:

                  When I see your real name and when I see you doing anything other than commenting on a blog, I may begin to take you seriously.

                  I’ve put my name on a ballot. I’ve held a Party office and worked to get its candidates elected. I’ve recruited candidates. I’ve worked to advocate both for and against politicians and bills, and I’ve done it in a LOT more ways than commenting on PeachPundit.

                  Too bad you can’t say the same.

                  I have the balls to actually do something about the things I believe in, and to put my name to what I do.

                  You must be a eunuch.

                  • jeff says:

                    Let us all bow down to the almighty Jeff Sexton. He knows all, sees all, and does all. You are such an inspiration.

      • MSBassSinger says:

        Herb,

        I come from CD-2. Let me update you.

        CD-2 ain’t Atlanta. Black folks don’t all think alike. Many black folks in CD-2 are people who work for themselves, and are hurt by the way things are going, thanks to the Dems.

        In addition, Mike has a long history of service to the black community, and is well respected there.

        This is a pocketbook election. Bishop is part of the status quo that is hurting pocketbooks with total colorblindness. Some may vote only for color, but you border on racism thinking that black folks in CD-2 can’t think for themselves.

  13. Clint says:

    I woke up and saw my shadow so I think a runoff is looking likely in the following races:

    Governor
    Lt. Governor
    Attorney General
    Labor Commissioner
    Superintendent of Education
    Court of Appeals

    Possible runoff for Insurance Commissioner too

  14. drjay says:

    don’t one of you front page guys have enough clout to get ahold of whoever programs the voting machines to find out who they have programmed to win so that we don’t have to guess and predict…

    • damn… Dr. j got to it first,… Ha. Yea, also, will there be any Alvin Greene mis-programmings or have they gotten all the bugs worked out by now?

      Back to serious,… My only predictions that I’ll post is the Dems will need to be put on Suicide watch and the GOP will further lose credibility… say they believe one thing and continue to back those that truly vote/believe/represent the opposite.

  15. Doug Grammer says:

    Georgia will be a GOP sweep with no run offs. Congressman Deal will be at 52 to 53%, and Senator Isakson will be at 59%. We win the 8th and the 2nd congressional seats. The Second and some of the statewide races will be close. Congressman Marshall needs to be packing up his office. If there are run offs, the GOP will win those unless they will be closer than what I think. 2 or 3% difference could be flipped one way or another, 7 to 8% will hold true for the leader. I’d love to see a surprise additional pick up like the 13th, but I don’t see it happening.

    Shepherd will have a close race, Teasly wins, Allison (and every other GOP legislative candidate from the Ninth) wins (again.)

    Nationally, the GOP picks up 55 in the house and we get 49 US Senate seats. Sen. Reid goes home. Rubio wins FL, as does Scott, Joe Miller in Alaska. If we get 50, then Joe Lieberman switches to the GOP.

  16. peach4handel says:

    I love how its the people from north ga that cant even vote in this race,are the one bad mouthing about mike,saying he can’t win. I would like to hear from people who live here in ga2

  17. Doug Deal says:

    I predict a 72 seat gain in the House of Representatives for the GOP, as some seats that were not even watched fall.

    If anyone is interested, I set up a site to track how well Nate Silver and RCP have predicted the races (as well as me) at http://www.votemaxgeorgia.com

    I plan on updating as polls close.

      • Doug Deal says:

        It’s not so much optimism, but respecting the generic ballot and the number of shocking incumbents that lost in primaries.

        As for state races, I was seriously disengaged when Deal won, so I am not sure I have the perspective for a good prediction.

        Also, my predictions are more often wrong than right, so take that for what it’s worth.

  18. Gary Cooper says:

    Ok here goes:

    – Deal wins with 52% of the vote.
    – The GOP ticket sweeps the statewide offices with Kemp and Black garnering the most vote totals.
    – GOP gets 2/3 cushion in state senate; adds 1-2 seats in the state house.
    – Amendments 1 & 2 fail; 3-5 pass.
    – Austin Scott wins with 54% of the vote in CD 8.
    – Keown pulls out a 51-49 squeaker against Bishop in CD2.
    – Barrow survives by the skin of his teeth with 51% of the vote in CD12.

    That last tidbit sets up the national spotlight in the direction of the GOP. They retake the house with a 80+ seat pickup, and tie the Senate 50-50 with a 9 seat pickup. Harry Reid is gone and Chuck Shumer takes over as Democratic leader. Nancy Pelosi announces her retirement at the end of the week and Democrats elect a new minority leader for the 112th Congress.

  19. drjay says:

    i’m not sure how it will be spun and maybe i’ll be proven wrong, but my gut is that most of these “tea party darlings” esp. in the senate races are gonna go down, either like a big witchy flaming zeppelin in delaware, or by the skin of their teeth in races like colorado and nevada (where the one person reid can beat won the gop nod…)and even they races they win like kentucky are gonna be closer than they should have been had they dialed back the crazy and vetted the candidates a little better…

    • Jack Smith says:

      The sad part about Ken Hodges is that he is so vile, there is a vast amount of info that could have been researched on him, all of which were public record. I posted an article yesterday regarding how select private attorneys were getting sweetheart deals from certain DA’s offices so that these attorneys would get a piece of whatever assets the DA’s office seized. Guess who were campaign contirbutors to the Hodges scum?

  20. Bill Hagan says:

    GA-8:

    Scott defeats Marshall in a tight race.

    Also Marshall will forget in his concession speech to apologize for his repeated votes for Nancy as Speaker of the House and failing to represent the views of the majority of residents in the 8th district during his votes in Washington on the large majority of issues that never get media coverage.

  21. Herb says:

    Now that my hangover’s wearing off, I see I was dead wrong in almost all my predictions. That’ll do it for me, fellow Peach Punditeers. I’m out.

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