Roy Barnes Campaign Admits Barnes Lost

This quote is very telling:

“The only poll we trust is the one on Election Day by voters,” Barnes spokesman Emil Runge said.

In the history of modern American political campaigns, regardless of party, this is the quote the loser always uses right before Election Day.

John McCain’s campaign said the same thing in 2008.

38 comments

  1. Doug Deal says:

    I went to school with Emil, and when asked why he was a Dem, he once told me that the only way anyone was every going to get anywhere in Georgia politics was as a Democrat. This was back when the only Republican in Georgia was Newt Gingrich.

    So maybe his prognostication abilities have been stuck in a 20 year rut.

  2. Clint says:

    Erick – this is going to be a very close election and I think momentum is on Roy Barnes’ side. Additionally, Emil is correct that the only poll that really matters is the one that comes out on election day.

    To suggest otherwise would mean to suggest that people should just not even bother voting, that perhaps we should just do it by random sample survey instead. I like the democratic principle of voting to let my voice be heard.

    • I Am Jacks Post says:

      “I think momentum is on Roy Barnes’ side”

      The polls you unwisely dismiss–the only true measure of “momentum”–indicate otherwise.

      Remember, sheer volume of Google ads is not representative of who will win on Election Day.

      • TPNoGa says:

        I can’t go anywhere, including National Review without seeing an ad with a beat-up girl claiming Deal somehow opposes rape victims. Ugh.

    • rightofcenter says:

      I’m all for voting, too. It is your constitutional right, after all.
      But the momentum in on Roy Barnes’ side? Really? Considering that virtually every poll in the last month has had him stuck at 39 to 41%, that’s a very unusual definition of momentum.

      • Insider Mike says:

        rightofcenter, haven’t you heard about the Barnes/Murphy bus tour? Lots of momentum on the Bull Moose bus.

      • Doug Grammer says:

        Momentum is moving from 35 to 39% in a short period (hasn’t happened), but if you can’t break 41%, I’d call that a stand still. Congressman Deal will win with 53% of the vote with no run off. Gov. Barnes will get 42% and all others will get 5%.

    • Lady Thinker says:

      Well Barnes has a great deal of police as well as public safety support, deal has very little if any. According to some of my college students, PBA supports Barnes, FOP didn’t support either, and the Chiefs of Police, while not recommending support for either one, published the answers to their questionnaire, leading many to lean toward Barnes.

  3. I remember in May 2006, our CLI class sat in Whit Ayers office in D.C.. Whit projected that there would be a massive shift and there wasn’t a darn thing anyone could do to change it. At the time the key issue was high oil, an unpopular war and political corruption (Abramoff and Co.). The election results of 2006, while not catastrophic for Georgia Republicans did set the tone for the 2008 elections, which was a bloodbath. Neither 2006 or the 2008 elections combine have the amount of angst in the electorate as we see in 2010.

    I realize this is anecdotal, but I’m running into people who are asking me who I’m voting for. They also are indicating they’re voting straight ticket Republican. I have a hunch that is happening all over. This morning was reading a news story that quoted a professor from UGA who predicted a sweep without a runoff. While Deal has not crested the 50%, he’s consistently edged it. The good professor doesn’t think those undecideds will break for Barnes or Monds. Common sense suggest they will go with Deal and the Republican wave. Here’s to hoping so.

    • Yup, you’re probably right. Voting a straight ticket is a lot easier. Especially for people who can’t spend all day online researching the issues & personalities involved. Party labels save time.

  4. Most pollsters will say that at this point, undecideds generally will not vote. If removing undecideds gets any candidate to 50% +1, then there is likely not to be a runoff.

    • Doug Deal says:

      That works for President, but people are coming to the polls for a lot more than voting for Governor, so if something else brings them out (voting for Scott or Marshall, for example) and they are undecided for governor, they might vote either way.

        • I have to agree with LT on this one Doug. The tendency is to skip the race and move to the next one. I have done that before or did a write in vote. Even my friends who think I’m crazy to be involved in politics (especially after this campaign…did you all know according to the Dems I voted to raise property taxes despite never holding elected office) tell me that they usually skip or write-in a candidate in races they are undecided about.

  5. Melb says:

    Every debate I have watched, Barnes makes Deal look like a freaking idiot.

    I don’t believe that the people of Georgia could watch those debates and still want to vote for Deal.

    Given that, I believe Barnes has a very good shot to win.

  6. Georgia Judge says:

    As Ive said many times Roy is alot things but stupid/dumb are not two of them,he looked like a guy that had reconciled himself to the fact he was beat. He understands there is no way he pulls this out and he is right….Deal 54 Barnes 43 Monds3.

  7. TPNoGa says:

    The final Gallup generic ballot poll shows GOP 55% Democrat 40%. In 1994, I believe the poll was even. This is the biggest lead the GOP has ever held. I just can’t see how Barnes wins with this headwind. The tsunami will carry him back to retirement.

  8. Monica says:

    Heh, I remember when John McCain said that before election, boy was that a sad day for America….

    BUT, Roy Barnes knows all too well not to trust polls, all the polls before his last gubernatorial election were showing him with some 10 point lead and he lost to Sonny Perdue. Unfortunatelly, I don’t think this is gonna happen this time around…. Crook for Georgia Governor it is…

  9. Herb says:

    Barnes wins going away. One cannot ignore how drastically this race has tightened over the past month. Some local polling outlets even show him within the MoE, tied, and, in one instance, ahead. Barnes has pulled out the big guns in the final days, like I said he would, and now, with Monds’ help, a Runoff will be triggered and Barnes wallops Deal 55-45. We need Barnestorm to protect us from the havoc to be wrought upon us by Obama. Roy believes in GA first, Squeal believes in Washington and Wall Street Fat-Cats first! The choice couldn’t be clearer, the Elder Statesman vs the Corrupt Pipsqueak. GO ROY!!!

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