Landmark GA-8 Poll for 27 October

October 27, 2010 17:36 pm

by Charlie · 9 comments

I must have missed the ribbon cutting, but it looks like Mark Rountree built a poll factory somewhere in Duluth.  Here’s their latest poll on Ga-8:

(Duluth)—Republican challenger Austin Scott is leading over Democratic incumbent Jim Marshall by solid margins within Georgia Congressional District 8. Last night’s poll results show Marshall at 39.1 percent of the vote with Scott in the lead at 52.5 percent.

In 2006, the African American vote accounted for 25 percent of all voters in the district. For this poll, Landmark Communications raised that percentage to 26.5 in order to accommodate for demographic growth.

Currently 15 percent of African American voters say they are undecided in the election, as well as six percent of white voters. It is our projection that the black vote will return to historical levels of 95% support for a Democratic candidate, and that two-thirds of white undecideds will go to Austin Scott. Therefore, it is our projection that Scott will win by a margin of 9 to 10 points and carry around 55 percent of the vote on Election Day.

Landmark Communications polled 1,133 randomly selected active voters residing in Georgia Congressional District Eight. The poll was conducted Tuesday, October 26th, 2010. Only voters who said they would “definitely vote” or “likely vote” are included in the final analysis.  Voters who did not identify themselves as “definitely” or “likely” to vote were not included in the final analysis. 25.8 percent of respondents were African American, corresponding with traditional voting participation in the district in gubernatorial election years. The margin of error of the survey is 3 percent.
 
You can download the results directly from landmarkcommunications.net.

Tyler October 27, 2010 at 5:56 pm

“It is our projection that the black vote will return to historical levels of 95% support for a Democratic candidate, and that two-thirds of white undecideds will go to Austin Scott. Therefore, it is our projection that Scott will win by a margin of 9 to 10 points and carry around 55 percent of the vote on Election Day…”

“…The poll was conducted Tuesday, October 26th, 2010. Only voters who said they would “definitely vote” or “likely vote” are included in the final analysis. Voters who did not identify themselves as “definitely” or “likely” to vote were not included in the final analysis.”

Crucial.

Even with Landmark Communications accounting for increased growth in the Democratic vote and the possibility of another historic showing from the African American vote, Austin Scott still wins according to the poll.

Add all the factors together:

Anti incumbent year +tenacious grassroots campaign +a great fundraising record= VICTORY?

We’ll see November 2nd, but I have a really good feeling about this race.

Mark Rountree October 27, 2010 at 6:07 pm

Thanks for posting, Charlie.

Poll factory? Yep. We actually are pretty prolific in our polling, doing perhaps a hundred a year or so — some for clients, some just for ourselves.

But until this year, we never chose to release them. And we still won’t in most cases, unless a client OKs it. We do them to help us gauge what’s going on.

The polls that we’ve released are all paid by Landmark, not by anyone else. No one else has seen the questions in advance.

In Congressional Eight, the days are slipping away for Marshall to do something different. That race is likely a nine or ten point victory for Scott at this point, assuming all undecided black voters and one third of undecided white voters stay with Marshall, but that decided voters stay where they are.

Charlie October 27, 2010 at 6:14 pm

You’re very welcome sir. Now don the asbestos underwear and prepare for your usual flaming of methodology challenges from our happy community of Peach Pundit contributors.

lukethedrifter October 28, 2010 at 7:58 am

Mark,

A quick question for you sir. I am going to meet some cousins this weekend and campaign for Republican Steven Palazzo down in Mississippi 4. He’s running a similar race to GA-8 against a popular 10 term Dem incumbent in a much more conservative district. He usually wins with 75%, 79%, 67% of the vote in a district where Bush, Jr. and McCain won by the same 65-67% the last 3 cycles.

There has been almost no 3rd party polling like we have in Georgia even though the NRCC is in this race heavy. They have issued internal (Tarrance Group) polls that show him up 2%, but I can’t believe no one else is conducting one.

In my cynical mind, I figure you release these polls for the press it gives your firm and thus potential future clients, so why don’t you tip your toes into this one and meet some good potential prospects in Mississippi politics? Just a thought.

Pine Knot October 27, 2010 at 8:42 pm

Good news. I really hope Mr. Scott wins. He is going to be governor one day. I hope he will be, and believe he will do a good job!

Tyler October 28, 2010 at 12:06 pm

New York Times FiveThirtyEight gives Austin a 94.2% chance of victory!

Projected poll results:

Austin Scott- 54.9%
Jim Marshall- 49.1%

slyram October 28, 2010 at 12:45 pm

I don’t care what the polls say; those Marshall “I can’t stand Democrats like Pelosi and Obama” ads are hitting in the Black community in the southern part of the 8th. Folks are like “let him go…he was okay in the past…which Democrat is running against Austin in 2012.”

One of the guys on SWGA politics blog recommends voting for Mickey Mouse in the 2nd District race if you aren’t feeling the two candidates. The same can’t be said about Dems in the part of the 8th that was once in the 2nd. Marshall sprint away from Dems isn’t helping Bishop, Barnes and the Dem ticket. It would be hard voting for Marshall under those conditions but Scott has a functionally relationship with the Dem community in his General Assembly district. Austin will get 70% of the vote south of Wilcox County. Some Dems voting for him and others voting against Marshall.

polisavvy October 28, 2010 at 12:52 pm

Good post, as usual, slyram. I believe you are correct in your observations and assessment. Scott wins this thing. I’ve said 54% for months — I still stand by it.

Ken in Eastman October 28, 2010 at 9:03 pm

Thanks, Sly.

You’re right about geography being a factor. Below the gnatline, folks worry more about where you’re from than which party.

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