New Insider Advantage Poll In Governor’s Race

October 19, 2010 14:21 pm

by Charlie · 53 comments

Deal, 45%
Barnes, 40%
Monds, 5%
Undecided, 10%

Says pollster and WSB-TV commentator Matt Towery:

“It should be noted that it is very hard to anticipate exactly what level Republicans will turn out in Georgia this year. The poll reflects a substantial Republican edge in its weighting. This edge could actually be higher but currently Georgia does not appear to be a state where there is frenetic Republican activity or enough hot races (such as Florida, Kentucky, California, etc.) to potentially generate the flood of Republicans that might be expected in those states. This makes it very tricky, given the fact that a flood of Republicans and a low Democratic turnout on election day could easily boost Deal to a 50% plus victory.

Says Peach Pundit Contributor Jace Walden:

“It’s a Republican State in a Republican Year”

View IA Crosstabs here.

TedLee October 19, 2010 at 2:28 pm

At 5%, Monds could very well end up being the deciding factor.

polisavvy October 19, 2010 at 2:31 pm

The undecideds are still quite high. They can go either way. This thing is by far not settled yet. Neither candidate should be ordering the champagne just yet. With about 334 hours to go, it’s still anyone’s game.

American Delight October 19, 2010 at 5:52 pm

Sure, but can’t we order champagne anyway? So long, Sonny!

polisavvy October 20, 2010 at 9:10 am

Well, that’s certainly worth toasting regardless, huh? LOL!! :)

David Staples October 20, 2010 at 9:23 am

How about sparkling wine? I try to buy stuff made in the USA whenever possible. I’d suggest Schramsberg… it’s made using the champagne method, but comes from California.

polisavvy October 20, 2010 at 9:30 am

To be quite frank, I prefer sparkling wine to champagne; but, at the end of the day, I prefer beer even more, especially the micro-brews.

David Staples October 20, 2010 at 10:14 am

Errm… champagne is a type of sparkling wine. What actually qualifies champagne as champagne is that it comes from the Champagne region of France. The Champagne method (methode champenoise) uses yeast added to the bottle for a secondary in-bottle fermentation (followed by a process called riddling to make the yeast lees sink to the neck of the bottle) to create the carbonation / bubbles (which is what Schramsberg and I believe Moet use in the US). The other method that a lot of the producers are using these days in the US is CO2 injection. You can tell the difference between sparkling wines made using the two different methods in that the secondary fermentation creates tiny bubbles. The CO2 injection creates larger bubbles that don’t last as long. (We learned all about these processes on our honeymoon when we visited Schramsberg in Napa Valley. The underground caves are pretty darn nifty.)

polisavvy October 20, 2010 at 10:22 am

David, trust me, I knew the difference. LOL!! I might talk slow, but I’m not. ;) That’s pretty interesting stuff. I would love to go to Napa Valley. My son and I were in San Francisco last summer. To think I was about 50 miles from there and we didn’t plan a day trip to Napa kind of makes me sad.

David Staples October 20, 2010 at 10:35 am

Napa Valley is absolutely gorgeous! If you like wine at all, it’s a must see. I recommend the Frog’s Leap and Schramsberg tours and the Arger-Martucci tasting. Peju is good to stop in to taste and buy a bottle (or 12), but we didn’t go on their tour. The Mondavi tour was just so-so and Beringer was neat to see, but not really worth stopping for long. Had I known ahead of time that reservations were needed for the Opus One tour, I would have tried to schedule that one as well. Platypus Tours was a great tour guide if you’re looking for someone to drive you around with a group of others (they pick you up at your hotel or bed and breakfast). If you’re looking for a private driver, call Tracy at Napa TAC. He’ll drive you wherever you want to go in a nice Mercedes R class and make recommendations and reservations for you in advance as well. If you’re looking for a place to stay, I’d certainly recommend the Candlelight Inn – it’s a quaint little bed and breakfast whose owner is extremely helpful and nice.

Romegaguy October 20, 2010 at 11:19 am

I prefer the Italian Proseccos

rightofcenter October 20, 2010 at 12:05 pm

Finally, something we can agree on! I also would suggest trying it during the Mustard Festival season (offseason, but a big time out there). Cakebread was a good tour, too. I would also suggest picking out a smaller winery or too without much fanfare and taking a chance. Didn’t do Frog’s Leap but heard good things about it.

David Staples October 20, 2010 at 12:49 pm

Yep, Arger-Martucci is a smaller winery. According to their website, total production remains under 5,000 cases. (I’m assuming that’s per year.) They make a rose out of Cabernet Sauvingnon that is fantastic – Saigniee Sauvage.

Frog’s Leap was probably the best tour of them all. Total length was around 2 hours, and I’d recommend having a driver for the day you do that tour as they pour very liberally. We probably each had half a bottle to a bottle by the time we finished their tour. They’re an eco friendly winery and just enjoy having a good time. (Their tour guides are only able to do one tour a day, as they drink right along with you.) Even the corks reflect their laid back attitude: “Time’s fun when you’re having flies.” If you go during a vegetable harvest season, they offer free vegetables out of the garden to visitors. They also have chickens and honey bees on site and the building is LEED certified.

B Balz October 20, 2010 at 2:51 pm

Well the LEED certification sealed the deal for me.

rightofcenter October 20, 2010 at 3:03 pm

As I recall, we tried to do Frog’s Leap but it was booked solid. Probably need to line that one up well in advance.

B Balz October 19, 2010 at 2:48 pm

“…Georgia does not appear to be a state where there is frenetic Republican activity …”

Try harder, y’all we can be #1 in frenetic.

To me, an aberration OR the endless pursuit of many small ‘revelations’ is taking an effect. Now six weeks of this tack, and perhaps Mr. and Mrs. 2.5 Children are tuning in.

Independent voters, GOP crossover, and a large Dem turnout would change everything. Or none of it will change. I guarantee there is a 50-50 chance it could go either way.

bowersville October 19, 2010 at 2:50 pm

And that’s a fact.

polisavvy October 19, 2010 at 3:01 pm

Agreed! “It ain’t over till it’s over” in about 334 hours or so.

B Balz October 20, 2010 at 11:10 am
polisavvy October 20, 2010 at 11:18 am

I can’t even begin to imagine what’s running through her mind. I wonder if she’ll endorse or remain neutral?

B Balz October 20, 2010 at 11:22 am

A job?

polisavvy October 20, 2010 at 11:25 am

Well, I’m sure that is running through her mind. LOL!! What do you think she’ll end up doing — endorsing or remaining neutral? I understand she has some fairly hefty campaign debts that an endorsement could help make go away. I just wonder what she’ll do.

B Balz October 20, 2010 at 11:50 am

To me, an endorsement for a Dem would be one thing, an endorsement for Roy, another. As it is, I don’t see much future for Ms. Handel in the GOP, so she has little to lose going agin’ ‘em. She has pluck, my guess is I don’t think neutral will be her choice. . .

To me, it explains this six week run-up against Rep. Deal. The way the the primary went, I DO NOT BLAME her, it was a horribly personal, hugely ugly mess of a race. I cannot talk politics with a lot of people because of this divisive primary.

Take away the many misgivings I have about Rep. Deal’s ethics, many of his constituents are strongly against a core value that is critically important for me.

My sincere hope is that legislators see the folly in getting involved in social issues, when our financial concerns are far more germane. If the Right continues to march further right, and the Left goes further left, the Country will suffer.

Only now, the USA does not have the luxury of time to wobble about deciding on it’s future.

polisavvy October 20, 2010 at 12:13 pm

Good post, B Balz. I’m thinking remaining neutral and figuring out on her own how to pay the debt. Do you really feel that she doesn’t have much of a future in the GOP? Why do you feel that way? Just curious.

NorthGAGOP October 20, 2010 at 12:19 pm

No future for Handel in the GOP? She lost the run-off by 2500 votes.

B Balz October 20, 2010 at 12:35 pm

The GOP and GRTL treated Ms. Handel so viciously. GOP voter support is not the issue, did not mean to imply GOP voters do not want her, but rather, GaGOP and GRTL don’t want her.

More at, the horrible GRTL comment, GOP oppo fascination with Lincoln Log Cabins, etc., why stick around? IMHO, it won’t be a rosy future for Ms. Handel, when/if Rep. Deal wins.

What do you think NGAGOP, this ought to be an issue you have a better ‘feel’ for?

NorthGAGOP October 20, 2010 at 12:39 pm

There is a difference between being part of a Deal administration, and being part of the GOP.

There is a lot of support for Handel in the party. I don’t see that going away if if Deal gets elected.

B Balz October 20, 2010 at 2:53 pm

Fair enough, I agree that she has plenty of support.

Maybe another cycle, and not as Gov., we’ll see.

polisavvy October 20, 2010 at 2:56 pm

Uh oh! I bet you have started something now with that statement.

Lady Thinker October 20, 2010 at 10:15 pm

Karen Handel is in a “Catch-22″ in my opinion. As a Republican, she will want to support those in her party, but she is a very moral and ethical person. I think she will have a hard time supporting deal not because he won by 2500 votes, but because of the factors that have come out since the runoff regarding his ethical and moral lapses. She can’t support Barnes, even if she thinks he is the better candidate because he is a Dem. I am hoping she remains neutral so that she doesn’t have to endorse deal with all his problems.

Lady Thinker October 20, 2010 at 10:17 pm

Whatever Karen decides to do or say, I will support her 100%.

slyram October 19, 2010 at 4:02 pm

The GOP down here in south Georgia can’t wait to make votes that feel like referendums on the Obama White House. The Tea Party Movement is energized and healthcare reform and cap and trade have some people really hot.

In the 2nd congressional district race, we don’t know what will happen with business-minded Republicans who generally dislike Democrat policies yet acknowledge the benefit of having Sanford Bishop on Approps.

The Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call was in my hometown Sylvester, Georgia, this weekend to interview Bishop and Keown during the peanut festival. Albany City Commissioner Roger Marietta, who is also a pol sci professor at Darton College, described Bishop as a “100 million-a-year industry” for southwest Georgia.

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/56_39/politics/50824-1.html?page=1

Keown has run a strong race and he has a bright future in congressional politics but southwest Georgia without Washington “investment” from Bishop would be rough.

The peanut festival weekend took a sad turn when we learned that my classmate’s nephew was killed by an IED in Afghanistan. RIP Private First Class Traimaine Billingsley.

http://www.walb.com/Global/story.asp?S=13344710

B Balz October 19, 2010 at 4:11 pm

I regret to hear of the loss to your community.

My hope is that Pvt. F/C Billingsley’s family is able to know that so many people extend their deepest sympathies. We are all Georgians and their loss is our loss.

John Konop October 19, 2010 at 4:14 pm

I second that!

Rick Day October 19, 2010 at 7:02 pm

So what do you have against Obama, personally and specifically, that you require a “referendum”? Conversely, why are you still continuing to support the very party that gave POTUS this mess to begin with? HOW WILL THIS ALLEGED REFERENDUM MAKE OUR WORLD BETTER?

Oh right…that pesky colored thing…

Go pick your peanuts and leave the big boy activities to others.

polisavvy October 20, 2010 at 11:22 am

Please excuse my delay in offering my condolences to the Billingsley family. What a tragic loss for them.

Clint October 19, 2010 at 4:41 pm

This is a very exciting turn of events and shows that momentum is moving towards Roy Barnes and the efforts to elect an ethical Governor who will put Georgia first.

B Balz October 19, 2010 at 4:58 pm

“Just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in….”

Easy, Mr. Clint ‘Be-Careful-of-What-You-Wish-For’ Murphy, the luck of the Irish abhors hyperbole. Pol ops, like yourself, have framed a ‘turkey shoot’ by using the ethics issue as most important to most voters.

Marketing over substance, as neither candidate seems to be addressing how Georgia may proceed in its’ efforts to minimize our taste for Federal money ($350mm, last budget), and other huge issues.

The advertising may work, OR 50%+1 voters will realize that the ads are just that, ads selling something. People hate to be sold, they like to buy. Buy into substance.

Rick Day October 19, 2010 at 7:03 pm

There is no such thing as an ‘ethical governor’ in the 21st Century, my friend.

Lady Thinker October 20, 2010 at 10:19 pm

One can hope, maybe in vain, but one can hope.

rightofcenter October 19, 2010 at 8:13 pm

Momentum is turning towards Barnes? And he still can’t get over 40% of the vote? Some momentum.

John Konop October 19, 2010 at 4:52 pm

I have a few questions for people who understand polls.

Do you think the cell phones taking over landlines undercount Democrats that much?

Do the polls over count Libertarians because they never seem to do as well as the polls and that should help Deal?

Is the trend line working to help Barnes?

Does any model even with a run-off show Barnes getting over 50% via Libertarians voting for Deal in a run-off?

B Balz October 19, 2010 at 5:03 pm

#1 Oh H*** no, they favor the folks who get free ‘gubbermint’cell phones,

#2 If anyone is over-counting the LP, more power to them. The LP needs all the help they can get.

#3 Meh, 6 weeks of playing from the defense may show a twitch, but frankly, I don’t think the effect will play out on November 2.

#4 I don’t think the LP crossover vote is large enough to crowd an Applebee’s…

Question for you:

Do you think that Georgia should join in repealing the new healthcare Bill?

John Konop October 19, 2010 at 5:28 pm

No because from what I understand it is voluntary and you can opt in an out parts you do not like. The only part that was not voluntary is mandatory insurance and that is the one part I did like about the bill. Unless people are willing to not be treated unless they have the money anyone who does not have insurance is passing on the cost to the rest of us. Basically they are using tax payers as a free insurance policy.

The lawsuit is just another dodge of both parties refusing to deal with healthcare. The crazy part both sides refuse to deal with the hard realities of the cost cutting that needs to get done. Instead both sides are selling us on something for nothing again!

Healthcare cost is a major drag on the economy. The truth is not everyone can get a Cadillac plan and pay rock bottom pricing.

B Balz October 19, 2010 at 5:34 pm

Thank you.

Harry October 20, 2010 at 12:50 pm

When it comes to healthcare all are not and should not be equally entitled. Just look at the free health benefits available to members of congress.

Rick Day October 19, 2010 at 7:07 pm

1. Oh hell no you didn’t just stereotype non-republicans as welfare recipients?

2. A blinder wearing party loyalist, aren’t we now?

3. You are talking about Deal, of course, right?

4. I like your style of underestimating the mightiness of your GOP. Keep it up.

B Balz October 19, 2010 at 9:43 pm

#1. Take another hit on the fattie, Bro, jes pullin’ the chain on this one.

#2 Never you mind what I wear in the privacy of my double wide.

#3 Whatever.

#4 Nuthin’ mightier than the pen, lad.

Rick, you read this way too seriously. live a little!

polisavvy October 20, 2010 at 9:12 am

Okay, I didn’t think it was possible; but, you outdid yourself on this post. Hysterically funny!! :)

Rick Day October 19, 2010 at 7:10 pm

Answer for you: are you willing to pay the legal bill out of your pocket? If so, yes. By all means, waste your money.

If I have to pay the legal bill through taxes, then no. That runs contrary to conservative principles.

Doug Grammer October 19, 2010 at 8:44 pm

Not if you think the law is unconstitutional and winnable in court.

fishtail October 19, 2010 at 10:21 pm

Assume for a moment that there will be a runoff between Barnes and Deal…what would be the best strategy for each of them during the 3 week runoff period? I am sure both camps have given this scenario some thought. Who would Barnes and Deal bring into Georgia to campaign for them? Would Deal go hard right and Barnes hard left?

B Balz October 19, 2010 at 10:23 pm

Masochist.

David Staples October 20, 2010 at 9:09 am

Bush was such a popular president (and he has that sacred R beside his name), I wonder why we haven’t seen him in Georgia campaigning for Deal? Perhaps they’re saving him for the runoff… I’m sure that *has* to be it… right?

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