Republican State, Republican Year

I haven’t blogged a lot lately, not than any of you actually noticed.  But the last time I did blog, I wrote a little post entitled “Roy Barnes is not a threat to GOP Supremacy in Georgia.”  The basic premise of that post was that Nathan Deal would win this election, and it wouldn’t even be a close race.  I did leave myself a little wiggle room though.  In the comment thread, I admitted that Deal could lose, but it would take a perfect storm of missteps and ethics problems.

Man, was I wrong!  It’s going to take waaaaaaaay more than a perfect storm.  At this point, it’s going to take an act of God for Roy Barnes to win this election.

Folks, the perfect storm has come and gone–and with it, Roy Barnes’s chances of winning.  In about a two week period, my radio stations and TV stations alike were flooded with news about Nathan Deal being in debt for this, making bad investments in that, hitting crippled children with a wiffle-ball bat.  There was a legitimate 14-day period where Nathan Deal (in any other election cycle) could have lost this race.  But I woke up the other morning, and guess what?

He’s leading by 9 points.

The perfect storm came and Nathan Deal survived it.  I would like to revise my earlier prediction.  Oh no, I still think it’s going to be a blowout.  Only now, I think it will be a blowout that won’t even require a runoff.

Republican state.  Republican Year.

48 comments

  1. LoyaltyIsMyHonor says:

    Nathan Deal could be under a federal indictment and voters will still elect him. Shoot, he could be practicing witchcraft and he’d still get elected.

    It’s not looking good for Roy, or that Monds guy. Too bad no one bothered to vote for the only honest Republican during the primary, Jeff Chapman.

      • LoyaltyIsMyHonor says:

        Sadly, not many people did. And now we’ll be paying for it for the next 8 years…another 8 years of running in place.

            • Lady Thinker says:

              I am leaning toward Monds because I refuse to vote for deal, who won’t be able to finish out his term, should he be elected, if he gets indicted. I wonder if deal will go to the same prison as the Illinois governors.

              • B Balz says:

                I am pleased that you have honed your voting choice away from a wasted write-in ballot, to a vote that enjoins you with the projected 3% of LP’ers in Georgia. Hopefully, Charlie and I assisted in your decision, in some small way. (;>).

                What I find truly unremarkable about the LP is that in an anti-GOP/Dem climate that we currently see, the latest [Rassy/IA] polls seem to be trending LP progress lower in the single digits. From 5 to 3%. I say this with little glee.

                The LP message fails to resonate with voters, although they could could a winning platform given public discontent with the efficacy of our current Dem/GOP leadership.

                In this cycle, I was truly hopeful that the LP would break double-digits, dare to dream, approach the magical 20% of voter acceptance.

                Clearly arguing about dissolving sign ordinances, legalizing drugs, etc. are NOT resonant messaging techniques. Sad, this could be the time for a viable, new look at how we approach issues of State and National importance. Something the Tea Party is not doing either.

                • Lady Thinker says:

                  You give yourself way too much credit for influencing me in any way. You don’t have what it takes, especially after that threatening comment you made several months back.

                  • B Balz says:

                    Lady Thinker:

                    If comments by an anonymous blogger upset you, please accept my most sincere regrets. However, it must be noted, you make no bones about being well-armed in real life.

                    I am concerned that an angry, armed woman is upset with me!

                    I have stated here, many times, blogs are about ideas and less about the individuals presenting them.

                    To suggest that my writing correlates, in any way, to a real life threat is simply wrong. Again, you are the one who displays an impressive knowledge of small arms, and boasts ownership of same…

                    You asked me what you did to upset me, and I never did answer that question. To me, anyone who simply repeats ranting rhetoric is annoying, but nothing more.

                    If you want to make this a personal issue, then continue to feel aggrieved. Otherwise, feel free to meet me at a PP event. You will see I am most civil, law abiding, and downright charming.

                    My comments above were meant in gentle jest. Best luck to you, neighbor.

  2. ZazaPachulia says:

    I voted for Jeff Chapman. That makes two of us.

    And despite everything, I think I’m going to be voting for the guy who loses in November as well. If Karen had won the nomination, she’d have an 18 point lead. Same with Johnson.

    It makes you wonder, if Barnes hadn’t entered the race, would Porter/Baker/Poythress be trailing by nine points after all the Shady Deal stuff came to light?

        • LoyaltyIsMyHonor says:

          I know, it’s just so disappointing, to me anyway. We’ve had 8 years to prepare for this, and Deal is the best we could come up with? Isn’t this frustrating to some people?

          I know you’re a Deal supporter Doug, and that’s fine, I can respect that. But are you satisfied that he was the best that the R’s could have come up with?

          You’ll have to tell me about your time with the Guardian Angels in the next open thread. Or were you kidding about that?

          • Doug Grammer says:

            Well, as Chairman of the Ninth, I do find some satisfaction that the Gov. the Lt. Gov. and the Speaker of the House are all likely to be from my District. I never did say who I supported in the primary for any office. I will say that not everyone I supported won. I would have been satisfied with most of the GOP candidates for Gov. as the nominee. One was unacceptable and another I never met. The best person in Georgia for Governor (not just the gop)…I am going to trust the will of the voters and say it’s Nathan Deal. Anyone else that could be named that did not run, didn’t want it bad enough. Cream rises to the top, regardless of how many marsh mellows you drop on it.

            I wasn’t kidding about the Guardian Angels.

            • bowersville says:

              Were you around when Curtis walked Ga. 9, (the highway not the district)?

              I guess I need to say something political so go vote.

              • Doug Grammer says:

                Yes, but I didn’t walk it with him. We had another event going on. I have spent New Years Eve in Bankhead Courts before.

                I have already voted, have you?

                • bowersville says:

                  No, I haven’t voted. I try to vote at the same time every year around 1-1:30pm on election day so that I can gauge turn out at my local precinct. We have a local open County Commission seat this year.

                  Sliwa has an I-beam for a back bone.

            • LoyaltyIsMyHonor says:

              Ooooops, sorry Doug. It was wrong for me to imply that you supported Deal in the primary.

              • Doug Grammer says:

                I don’t mind people thinking that I supported Congressman Deal in the primary. He is my friend and I have known him since 1992. However, he wasn’t my only friend running. There were others on the GOP side who I think would have made fine a Governor. I don’t want to hurt any of my friends feelings, so I’m not jumping up and down saying I voted for him or her. I think that Chairmen should remain neutral, be fair, and support the nominee without regard of who they voted for in the primary.

    • B Balz says:

      I think that blogging, the internet, and search engine ease-of-use, all contribute to more knowledgeable voters.

      Those living in the midst of a ‘paradigm shift’ are not aware of the speed in which things are changing. Today, it seems normal to have a device that shows real time weather in one’s palm, yet, in 1980 that was unimaginable to most folks.

      The virtually costless broadcast ability of social media is, as Toffler predicted, is helping to change processes, so quickly, we cannot fully appreciate it.

      These are great times!

    • USA1 says:

      Barnes did that because, like all liberals, he is implementing the Master Plan which will have black men impregnate all white women in this country. And this will occur while all the supposedly straight, conservative, white males clutch their remotes in one hand and their ding dongs in the other while cheering for their favorite football team.

      The reign of the white man will soon be over.

      ALL HAIL OBAMA!!!!!!!!!

      • bowersville says:

        That’s why it’s so important that legislation be passed that prevents forced micro chip implantation. We don’t want the government tracking down our white women and impregnating them with black men.

        Isn’t that right Maurice?

        • Barnes was merely indulging himself in political pimping. However, if you feel that putting pressure by a Governor on a county Sheriff to pull the plug on an investigation of an ex-con who molested 1,000 women and children as young as the age of 4 is appropriate, you’re one sick freak.

          I’ve spoken to Sheriff Sill, Mrs. Osinski and had a lengthy email exchange with the former Putnam County Attorney and Suzanne Wood, Max Wood’s wife. All said the same things.

          Barnes threw children under the bus for political expediency and his lust for power. No Barnes, no way.

          • bowersville says:

            The Federal Government was handling the investigation. The Sheriff might have got York 10-15 years and that’s a maybe and he definitely would have compromised the FBI investigation. The case involved manufacturing and distribution of kiddie porn from New York State to Georgia. All up and down the eastern seaboard and you expect the Sheriff of Putnam County to prosecute that?

            The FBI made 2,000 cases against York and prosecuted 200. York was sentenced to 135 years in Federal prison. So which is it Maurice, 10-15 years in state prison or 135 years in the Federal pen?

            Why are you so eager for the biggest pedophile in US history to only serve 10-15 years instead of 135 years?

            • You completely miss the whole point. This investigation was begun by Sheriff Sills, who established the foundation. If Barnes had his way, the man would be still raping 4 years…. It was the persistence of Sills that got the feds on board. In this situation, there were much involvement of Barnes and his staff applying political pressure on county officials to back off. I’m certain that Barnes had no clue the man was a pedophile, initially. However, Sills ultimately had a meeting with Barnes and laid out all the details. Even then Barnes and company pandered to the freak.

              I’m simply pointing out the information that was conveyed to me from the individuals that had pertinent knowledge (Sills, Dorothy Adams-Ford, Wood and Osinski’s wife).

              This case shows clearly Barnes attempt to apply political pressure to local governments.

              • bowersville says:

                No Maurice I do not miss the point you do. You are talking political talking points and I’m talking realty.

                Now if you have information that public corruption exists you have access to the US Attorney in Macon that was recently sworn in. If you are uncomfortable speaking to a US Attorney that was sworn in under the Obama Administration I suggest you drive to Gainesville Georgia and speak to Sally Yates the US Attorney that prosecuted Bill Campbell. Her background specialty is Public Corruption. Also you can use your search engine to locate the nearest FBI Public Corruption Unit, they are eager to investigate and prosecute corrupt public officials.

                You Maurice started this by quoting Sheriff Sills saying the biggest obstruction to justice was a sitting Governor, the FBI and the GBI.

  3. Progressive Dem says:

    Deal comes across as barely competent and barely honest. However he has a Republican brand next to his name, and that is all that matters to most Georgians. They are buying that product even if it is severely flawed. Barnes may have too much baggage, but frankly I don’t think a fresh face could win if he is a Democrat.

    With power comes responsibility. So far the GOP in Georgia has not improved transportation, water or education. The voters will eventually hold them accountable.

    • kyleinatl says:

      Wishful thinking that will never come to fruition, you’re in the bible belt son…that’s what reigns supreme down here.

      • ZazaPachulia says:

        “Wishful thinking that will never come to fruition, you’re in the bible belt son…that’s what reigns supreme down here.”

        We have a Republican year in 2010… Don’t get too cocky. We’re also about to elect an ethically-challenged, embarrassingly scandal-ridden, corrupt former congressman as our Republican governor. He will almost certainly damage the party’s image in the Peach State.

        In 2008, McCain won Georgia by just 200,000 votes — about 5.2-percent. Obama kept it close (and won North Carolina) despite McCain crushing him with white voters. I contend that if this gubernatorial election were held in 2008 (and everything else were the same), Barnes would win without a runoff. Heck, Jim Martin forced Saxby into a runoff.

        Demographics continue to change in this state. As long as Republican talking heads and politicians continue to be hostile toward Hispanics, the new Dems will continue to gain clout in Georgia.

        • Harry says:

          FYI, the Hispanics who I have spoken to about this who are legal US citizens (and thus potential voters) are very concerned about border security as well as keeping control on what elements come into this country.

  4. Jane says:

    Run-offs occur in Georgia not because the Democrat is good, but because the Republican is not a pure conservative. I voted today for three Libertarians not because they could win, but because the Republican is not enough of a Conservative/Libertarian for my tastes. And yes, I will vote for the Republican in any Run-off any time any where against a Democrat.

  5. aoburns says:

    Good point about the perfect storm. Its true and he looks like he has survived.

    I want to wait another 10 days and see a new poll to see how things look then.

    In south georgia all I see is Barnes bashing Deal. I don’t know whats going on in Atlanta and North Georgia.

  6. Rick Day says:

    When Deal is indicted, convicted and removed from office (and I did not say “if” because you have at least 24 months of an Obama controlled Justice Dept), you best be satisfied with your Lt Gov. Because that person will become the next Gov. of GA.

    Ironic, if the D won and became the sitting gov.

      • B Balz says:

        That’s pretty funny, Doug. Really…I laughed out loud.

        Rick, you are a humorous fellow, too. Don’t agree with you often, but your points are incisive, cutting, and devoid of senseless rhetoric.

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