Rasmussen: Deal 45%, Barnes 39%, Monds 5%

As Andre mentioned, Rasmussen is out with a new poll. Full poll here.

This marks a fallback for Deal whose support has been steadily rising from 43% in March to 51% last month. But Barnes is also at the low end of his support, having earned 39% to 43% of the vote in those same surveys back to March. This is the first survey to include Monds.

The race remains Leans GOP in the Rasmussen Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

This is also the first survey of the Georgia gubernatorial race to include leaners. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. From this point forward, Rasmussen Reports considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.

If leaners are excluded from the totals, Deal gets 42% of the vote, with Barnes at 35% and Monds at seven percent (7%).

Sixty-eight percent (68%) of Georgia voters say they are following news reports about Deal’s financial problems at least somewhat closely. Sixty-two percent say those problems are at least somewhat important to how they will vote, with 31% who say they are Very Important.


  1. ready2rumble says:

    Deal drops six points, looks like the ethics charges are having an impact, but not enough for him to get beat.

        • SFrazier says:

          Hmmm intresting, working for Barnes. I was right, I always told you he (LT) was a liberal democrat. Deal won, get over it….

            • Lady Thinker says:

              What is getting old, me defending myself against the deal liars or them continuing to call me a man after repeated statements that I’m not?

              The dealsters claim their saint is this side of Holy but they fill this blog with lies, which in my opinion, the lying deal posters must be a reflection of the lying deal by calling me a man.

      • Lady Thinker says:

        We, the educated female voters of the Republican party, who can think for ourselves and can spot a Washington wolf posing as a sheep in Georgia politics.

        SF is still speading lies regarding my gender, and she knows it, just like deal spreads his lies by ommision and commission. Birds of a feather flock together and it clearly shows in deals ads and his followers posts. But then deal has shown he is a follower and he has followers following a follower. Wonder if they will follow him into the federal jail system?

  2. This is really great news for Team Deal. Roybama, the DGA, and their media accomplices tried as hard as they could to demonize Nathan and his family and they could only shave off 6 points.

    Once Obama’s Boy Roy figures out he can’t trick enough people into “hating” Deal and that his own unfavorables are climbing even faster, the lead will once again increase in our favor.

    At a 50% unfavorable, Roy is toast.

      • SFrazier says:

        This is red state. Deal will win fairly easy because he is a conservative. LT’s sour grape liberal RINO wannabe’s posse’s votes for Barnes will not matter. At least we can take comfort in knowing how truly selfish that group is. We know Roy will do nothing but embolden democrats, and LT’s group wants to do all it can to try make that happen. I have got some news for you RINO’s.
        ” Not gonna happen”

        • Lady Thinker says:

          You are right sfrazier, deal is “not gonna happen” because everyday he changes the truth about what he has said the day before.

          You once called Karen’s supporters “godless” but Karen and her supporters have not broken God’s Commandments the way shady deal has over and over and over, you know the ones about lying, theft, coveting your neighbors property (translated to his sweetheart deal).

          He has lied so much that according to the fairy tale, deal’s nose must be seven feet long and growing.

      • Come on David, I assume you are a farmer by looking at your web page. You know the whole “Apples to apples, oranges to oranges” thing, right?

        Unfavorables – Deal 40%, Roybama 50%
        Favorables – Deal 49%, Roybama 44%

        Even you have to admit there is a Republican Tsunami approaching and an unpopular Democratic governor, who has already been kicked out of the same office once, really has no chance here.

        • If you’re going to call one guy Roybama, why not extend the courtesy to the other guy as well… Dealbush? Dealbama? (After all, he did introduce himself as the Democratic candidate for Governor in Columbus not long ago…)

          I manage the web development group for an international equipment manufacturer by day… by night, yes, I have a farm… it’s primarily a horse farm, but we did crops last year and will do them again next year. But I work in logic all day long at my day job.

          I completely agree, we’re in a red state where people will probably blindly vote for the guy with the R beside his name even though both the Democratic candidate and the RINO candidate are unpopular. Show me a candidate from the two major parties with less than 30% unfavorable and we’ll talk. I agree though… the RINO will probably win in the runoff.

            • Good luck with your farm, that is a cool idea. While most of the people who champion the “organic” concept tend to be patchouli wearing progressive freaks, I hope organic farming gains in popularity. There are a lot of people out there who don’t remember what some vegetables used to taste like because of all the perservatives and pesticides used these days. God only knows what these chemicals and hormones in meat and milk are doing to us and our kids.

              So that I don’t get accused of threadjacking, I’ll say go Deal. Beat Barnes.

              • ACCmoderate says:

                I do organic farming and I’ve never even heard of patchouli.

                I wish that there were better support for small-scale farmers here in this state, but I’m sure that will change when we elect a former big ag lobbyist to the job of ag commissioner (sarcasm strongly intended)

                • Agreed. Did you know that even to sell at a farmer’s market you’re *supposed* to have a scale that’s certified by the Dept of Agriculture? Furthermore, when you get someone to come out to look at your scale, they don’t understand weights. It took me several minutes to explain that 5 lbs 3 oz was NOT 5.3 lbs. The guy had to get his supervisor on the line and I then had to explain the concept of 16 oz in a pound to her as well. It’s stuff like that that really makes me consider a future run for Agriculture Commissioner…

              • Thanks! It’s certainly been a learning experience, that’s for sure! Especially when it comes to trying to abide by all the different governmental regulations. I swear, there’s more red tape and tax laws regarding farms than I ever would have thought. You almost need to be a CPA to file your taxes. We’re not even considering looking at government subsidies for our farm, even though Nathan Deal supported them. (Like how I tied Deal in there? 😉 )

                  • Sure! I’ll try not to threadjack here, but you can click on my name which should take you to our website. We are primarily a horse farm (hunter / jumper / equitation) though we do crops as well. We didn’t grow anything this year because we’d put in an offer on a piece of property in Powder Springs on December 31st and figured crops are pretty difficult to move. We’re finally closing Monday… 270 days after our initial offer.

                    Our goal is essentially to run as environmentally friendly of a facility as possible. From solar to thermosiphoning for water heating to organic crops to locally sourcing as much as we can to running biodiesel in our trucks and tractor. It’s not that we’re doing it because of global warming… it’s because we believe taking care of our environment and ourselves is the right thing to do. 🙂

                    • polisavvy says:

                      Sounds like a great living! Hope things go well. I’ll keep in touch when your organic crops come in — for obvious reason, buy organic. Thanks, David.

                    • ACCmoderate says:

                      If you’re in/around Atlanta proper on a Saturday, you should check out the P’tree Road Farmers market. The vendors there are really knowledgeable and have some great products.

                      I’m a fan of the Athens farmers market, of course.

                      There’s a great article from the Athens Banner Herald that discusses the economic impact of famers markets and local growers. http://www.onlineathens.com/stories/082910/new_701635126.shtml

                      The money quote:

                      “If every household in Georgia spent an additional $10 on food grown locally, another $1.9 billion would be pumped into the Georgia economy, the study says.”

                      I haven’t heard a lot from either candidate in regards to supporting local agriculture. It’s an issue I wish they would both address.

        • Roy’s toast, pure and simple.

          It is undeniable that he’s had a few good weeks, WITH ZERO response. The bad news is he’s peaked and now losing the momentum his millions spent. Now that’s a bad investment. Good for Roy, it wasn’t his money…. OPM. Like any tide there is a rollback and another wave to come.

          Roy has his own problems. Stay tuned….

  3. fishtail says:

    The issue I have with robo calls is that they only call hard line telephones. That builds in a bias for older folks who may trend to vote Republican. There are lots of voters missed in robo call polls, so I always take them with a “grain of salt”. Perhaps Chris Huttman can enlighten us a bit on the specifics/accuracy of robo polls.

    • polisavvy says:

      I’d love to hear from Chris Huttman about this as well. I don’t really understand that much about polling and would truly like to know. Chris where are you?

      • I like robo polls actually, but I kind of question whether Rasmussen can give the attention required to produce reliable results with the volume of work they do.

        So you get some weird results – for one thing 47% approve at least somewhat of Obama. That doesn’t seem right for Georgia this year among likely voters, and yet Roy is only getting 39% of the votes. Nationally Rasmussen says 48% approve of Obama – we’re only 1% worse than the country?

        Here are the oddest results, if you ask me:
        Age 18-29:
        Deal 32, Roy 18, Monds 8, Undecided 42
        and then with leaners:
        Barnes 51, Deal 32, Monds 8, Some other candidate 9

        Age 30-39:
        Deal 68, Barnes 17, Monds 15, Undecied 0!

        So it seems weird to me that Deal goes from 32, to 68, to 48, down to 38, back up to 51 as you traverse the age ranges.

        The biggest problem with this poll is some other candidate being asked. There is not some other candidate running.

        20% of African Americans say they are either undecied or voting for some other candidate. Getting 15% of that 20% alone makes this 45-43 instead of 45-39. Lots of weird things going on here – Nathan does better among Republicans than Roy does among Democrats?

        • polisavvy says:

          Thanks for that explanation, Chris. It’s still a very confusing process by which these numbers are derived. Glad you could explain it.

  4. perimeterprogressive says:

    This poll is just plain odd but definitely interesting.

    For example, 6% of voters won’t be voting for Deal, Barnes or Monds. They said they will be voting for someone else. Who? My best guess is these are Karen Handel supporters who are going to write her name in. 5% are undecided. So, the real results are 45-39-5-6-5. Which is just odd.

    This is a red state, in a GOP year. And in Rasmussen, which has been leaning right all year, Deal can’t do better than 45%? More people find Barnes “very favorable” than Deal?

  5. hannah says:

    Rasmussen’s role is to prepare the ground–i.e. energize the base and depress the opposition.
    Political polling has to be one of the most despicable ways of collecting money ever.

  6. Quaker says:

    Alas, this is Georgia. Voters would elect a bankrupt chain saw murderer if that candidate is white and homophobic, hates Hispanics, is an anti-choice Protestant, and has an R after his name. Nothing else matters; certainly not personal ethics or business acumen.

  7. Three Jack says:

    deal, barnes, who cares…both the same old farts with old ideas.

    georgia used to be the most prosperous state in the south. after 8 years of perdueless and now facing at least 4 more years of the same with another demlican governor, this state is in trouble. best we can hope for is that a debate platform collapses with the two candidates on it and they both have to pull out of the race.

  8. Why was Rasmussen afraid to Report that John Monds is at 11% with leaners… instead they say that ‘some other candidate’ got those leaners.

    Buzz posted questions,… ‘some other candidate’ wasn’t even a choice.

    More and more people are deciding to Vote principles on Nov 2nd and wait til the run-off to vote ‘lesser of two evils?…. Only if they have to.

    • Doug Grammer says:

      Monds isn’t going to win. He’s not going to get anywhere near winning. Talking about him is a waste of breath other than he might cause a run off, and I can’t see how that is a good thing.

      • Deal isn’t ethical or capable of handing his own finances apparently. He’s not anywhere near capable of being a good choice for this state. He’ll probably win because people like that little R beside his name but I don’t see how that is a good thing.

      • That’s just it Doug, Georgia voters are talking about John Monds. People out there are disgusted, and Re-tread Barnes and the Crooked Deal represents everything they disgusted about.

        As per this Poll, Most want neither of them, 50% don’t want Roy and 47% don’t want Nathan.

        If people want a Governor that they can TRUST to veto any attempt to raise taxes or increase spending, John Monds is the only choice… he’s a great guy and the only one who will stand up against government intrusion into people’s personal lives and the ONLY candidate who has the fortitude to stand with Georgians and up against the Federal government when they attempt to overstep their Constitutional limits.

        Thank god you, “I’ll vote for any piece of scum as long as he has an ‘R’ beside his name”, don’t get to tell people what they can talk about or who they have to vote for.

        • Doug Grammer says:

          Just for a second you sounded like Ray McBerry. Glad to know you are pushing the one guy who hasn’t had a paying job in the last year.

          I also notice you aren’t challenging my claim that he isn’t running to win, he’s running to force a run off and claim look how important the LP is.

          • Of course John Monds is running to win… unlike the GAGOP and GADNC, who put forward their worst, Status Quo, “we never hold our guys accountable,” candidates.

            Re-tread Barnes and the Crooked Deal sure talk pretty, but only have records of failure, self interest, increased government spending and government growth. And based on their HIGH negatives, Georgia voters are coming around to this fact.

            All over the country voters are kicking out Incumbents and people responsible for the mess we’re currently in… so in Georgia, the choices are clear, vote Deal or Barnes if you like things the way they are and you believe that elected officials shouldn’t be held accountable for their actions and just want candidates to tell us what we want to hear… or Vote Monds who actually believes in what he’s saying and get GA back on the right track to a more prosperous Georgia.

            • Lady Thinker says:

              Excellent post Daniel. Enough people will vote for Monds and cause a run-off. I am hoping for Barnes v. Monds.

                • Lady Thinker says:

                  I have never worked for Tom Price. You know you are spreading another lie, like your candidate, although you are not quite as good as he is.

                  You dealsters should be trying to get Karen’s supporters to support the “shyster deal” rather than sending us toward Barnes or Monds. But being the unprofessional posters you are, you rather “deal” in lies, unprofessionalism, and push potential supporters away.

                  Happy with yourself? Because of your behaviors, Monds will get enough votes to cause a run-off and that will hurt your candidate, but hey, that works for me so keep it up.

  9. jackson says:

    What’s odd is that after tens of thousands of dollars in negative tv and internet advertising and misleading press reports, Deal is STILL ahead without barely doing any TV ads or advertising. I’d say once he starts, his numbers will go back up and Roy’s will go back down. Sad. You’d think in his FOURTH Governor’s campaign, Roy would know what to do to win.

  10. AubieTurtle says:

    Something interesting that has gotten lost in shuffle this week…

    Remember last week when rumors were flying around that there was a much bigger issue coming out about Deal this week? Many of the rumors pointed to Monday as being the day that would end Deal’s chances of getting elected. Monday came and went… as has much of the rest of the week with nothing new coming out.

    I just thought it was interesting because the rumors were so much heavier than the normal election season noise.

    • B Balz says:

      Interesting point because the news about Bishop Eddie Long, along with the Atlanta ‘whistleblower case, seemingly eclipse anything either gubernatorial candidate could have done.

      At least, I hope so.

  11. bowersville says:

    No news is good news unless you missed the two overnight AJC stories.

    Nathan Deal’s Partner Clarifies ’09 Debt & Deal Revises Finances Again.

    • rightofcenter says:

      Actually, bowersville, the “Deal Revises Finances Again” news story is a good thing for Deal if properly analyzed. He finally got a forensic accountant to properly restate his financial statement accurately. It was obvious (and you can go back and look at my past posts to see where I noted this) that he had significantly understated his assets because his business assets didn’t show up on the balance sheet and that he thus was far from insolvent, which was the headline that started this whole frenzy. I can see how this was done (the form is less than clear) and there is another area in the report where the ownership interests are clearly noted so it was not “withheld” info as his enemies would have you believe (and what would be the benefit of that anyway?) All that being said, this was incredibly sloppy and if done correctly from the start would have avoided this whole distraction which has cost Deal positive momentum and money (not that it has helped Barnes much).

      The other “news” story is a gotcha game article that I would expect out of the AJC when a story is on it’s last legs.

        • rightofcenter says:

          If an accountant completed his other SEC financial statement (which I doubt), then yes. If some campaign hack did it (more probable), then he should be fired, too.

          • Three Jack says:

            another week, another deal amended disclosure report filed with the explanation that his team did not understand ga campaign filing laws since they have been in d.c. for 18 years. roy says thank you for the explanation because you know he will use it in an ad.

            creative new filing, i’ll give him that. arbitrarily increase the value of property while decreasing amount of obligations. seems like the same type accounting that has been used in d.c. leading to trillions in debt. is this really what georgia needs?

  12. bowersville says:

    RoF, I don’t doubt anything you are saying. I have made no accusations. But let’s face it, it’s perception as much as reality that counts.

    At some point people will throw up their hands in disgust because of the concern for what else is out there. What other errors have been made? What else is being hidden, either by mistake or otherwise. After all Deal is asking Georgia to trust him and his judgment with our money. This latest revision demonstrates Deal hasn’t surrounded himself with the sharpest knives in the drawer. Get it?

    Maybe it’s time for the Dealers to reach out more, there are other alternatives for voters to consider. You are reading the same poll we are, 68% are following Deal’s finances.

    • rightofcenter says:

      I understand perception. That’s why I don’t know why they didn’t hire an accountant to do this as soon as the report broke last week. Of course, maybe they did. It may have taken a week for the accountant to do the due diligence to get the report out. In hind sight, of course, they should have just done this back when they announced and it wouldn’t have even warranted a story.

      At the end of the day, though, Deal’s success as a businessman or his personal finances have almost no bearing on my vote (just like it wouldn’t if I could vote for Marco Rubio in Florida, even though his personal finances are in bad shape). I like Nathan Deal because A) people I know and respect who have known him his entire life think the world of him; B) i’ve followed his congressional career closely and see that he is a thoughtful conservative; C) in my opinion, he has a great temperment for being a leader – he is thoughtful and respectful of others and doesn’t act like he knows he’s the smartest person in the room (unlike a certain other person running for the same office).

      • “people I know and respect who have known him his entire life think the world of him;”

        I’m sure the CEO of Enron has friends and family that have known him his entire life and think the world of him too. I wouldn’t want him running our state though.

        • rightofcenter says:

          Surely you can make a more valid point than comparing Ken Lay to Nathan Deal. Makes me feel a little sorry for you.

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