A curious tweet

Earlier this morning, David Johnson, CEO of Strategic Vision, sent out this tweet, offering no other details:

Democrats consider Jim Marshall in GA-CD 8 a goner and are going to abandon him.

A few days ago, Johnson claimed that Marshall’s internals showed him down by 6 points to Austin Scott. Considering the scrutiny that his firm has taken over polling and a public poll released a month ago showing Marshall leading, I’m inclined to dismiss this. However, given Nate Silver’s recent projection in GA-8, Marshall’s false attack ad and news that Democrats were planning to abandon certain districts with vulnerable incumbents, maybe he is on to something.

22 comments

  1. Just Sayin says:

    A few tweets down:

    “GA-2 moves to lean Dem from solid Dem, by election day it will be solid GOP. Bishop is a goner and I will bet on it. #tcot #gagop”

    So.. not that curious.

  2. fishtail says:

    Not to worry if you are a Marshall supporter…I hear Casey gave Marshall a copy of Austin’s sealed divorce papers. Austin evidently has some of the same bad habits that Dan Quayle’s son has….

  3. polisavvy says:

    Wow! So you are going to try the same crap that another poster tried back in January? Do you really think that lies and innuendo about Austin Scott are going to help Jim Marshall? Wouldn’t you be concerned as to how Casey Cagle obtained a copy of someone’s sealed divorce papers (wouldn’t that be an abuse of power)? Also, you are aware of the fact that your identity can be found through your IP address (or through Pundit for that matter).

    • polisavvy says:

      Or, he can leave him sealed since they are none or your business and none of my business. Sometimes divorce papers are sealed because of monetary details for the protection of the child or children. It doesn’t mean that something sordid had occurred. Maybe you Marshall supporters should just keep fishing.

      • polisavvy says:

        I think it was around 2002 or so. Austin Scott has never tried to hide his divorce, he has never denied having been divorced, and he and his ex-wife have an amazing relationship that includes her husband and Austin’s wife, Vivien. There is nothing untoward or sordid about it — it was simply a divorce. Stuff happens and sometimes marriages just don’t make it.

    • Ohhh, Sam Olens so SOOOOO excited! He looves to wallow in other people’s dirty divorces.

      And to be clear, I don’t think there is any sorrid divorce info on Austin. But I do think Sam Olens likes to sort through other people’s personal lives and use it against them to the end it helps him avoid having to make a living as a real live attorney.

  4. GAOTPC says:

    Yeah, I’m thinking Jim Marshall will pull out everything (since he’s going to lose, let’s hope!)….before it’s all over we’ll probably know when Austin Scott first picked his nose, pooped in his pants, and missed the toilet bowl going pee.

    So screw the issues right?!

    Like…how many times did Jim Marshall vote for the witch, Nancy Pelosi? TWICE! He’s been riding Nancy’s broom stick since she was sworn in and now he’s using the same broom to sweep his record under the rug! Cya Marshall!

    • polisavvy says:

      Screw the issues is the Democrats MO this political season. The issues are the last thing any of them want to discuss or debate. And yes, you could say that Marshall is pulling out everything — he’s already tried to get Austin’s mother’s divorce papers. Desperate times call for desperate measure, I guess.

    • Tyler says:

      The dirt Marshall digs up will be his own grave. I suspect Marshall is a bit smarter than to run a smear campaign against Austin, but we’ll see.

      Regardless, his poll numbers and Austin’s momentum are very telling. Issues are what voters are concentrating on this November in swing districts. Couldn’t agree with you more GAOTPC!

      • The fact is, there is little either candidate can do right now to change the outcome of this race. It’s beach ball in a big red tide. A function of the overall national sentiment than anything either camp does or doesn’t do between now and November.

  5. brander says:

    Strategic Vision gets way more polls right than they have wrong. I love alll of the arm chair quarterbacking on PP of the people that we all follow in GA politics. I have run or consulted on 38 congressional or higher campaigns in my career and I can tell you that as a strategist or campaign manager you can’t survive without great polling information. David and the team at SV do an awesome job.

    I met with Marshall with a client of mine in May of this year up in DC and he was openly concerned then that his voting record was going to come back and bite him in the butt. Austin’s divorce is none of our damn business and if Marshall is dumb enough to go that route, a routing is what he will get.

  6. Publius says:

    Those commenting on this post are well informed voters, no doubt. But living in the 8th and having more than just my ear to the ground, I am extremely confident Jim Marshall will win. People outside the district do not understand this district’s voter sentiment. If voters in the district do know who the Republican candidate for Congress is, many of them have a genuine distaste for the man. Right or wrong, Austin Scott’s reputation as an over-priviledged, frat-boy jerk has preceded him in south GA and middle GA. While we will see numbers trend against Marshall, there is no methodology for reading people. You have to be around people to really know them and by-and-large they feel comfortable with Jim.

    I know there are a ton of posts on Marshall, because this is a more conservative blog and Reps in metro-ATL want to think everything is going well for their side. But stories like this do’nt tell you jack about the 8th Congressional race.

    • polisavvy says:

      Wow! So I guess all the people that Austin Scott is coming in contact with on a daily basis who are contributing left and right to his campaign, who are volunteering in droves, who are putting signs up all over the district, and who are giving fund raisers for Austin should just stop because YOU have such a great feel for the 8th. As far as the frat boy comment, these people aren’t getting that impression at all. If they were, things would be different. Marshall is beatable PERIOD.

    • If voters in the district do know who the Republican candidate for Congress is, many of them have a genuine distaste for the man.

      Publius,

      I also live in the district and the recent turnout for Marshall in Dodge County for Marshall was weak, about a third of what Chambliss got when he was a sitting US Rep.

      Your anti-Scott sentiments are strange, because polling data indicates that when voters know both candidates that Austin Scott has a double digit lead.

      Also, you are the only person I know who calls Marshall, “Jim”. People are not comfortable with him and that also means that his yard signs with “Jim” in script were a doubly mistaken idea.

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