Bishop leads Keown by 6

August 12, 2010 11:36 am

by Jason · 43 comments

We have our first poll out of GA-2, though it was conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican affiliated firm. So take it for what it’s worth.

The poll shows Rep. Sanford Bishop leading Mike Keown by six points, 50% to 44% with a margin of error of 4.9%. No crosstabs are available, but here are some of the “key findings,” according to Public Opinion Strategies:

Mike Keown trails Bishop by just six points on the ballot. Despite being known by just over half of voters (53% name ID), Mike Keown trails the incumbent by just six points (44% Keown/50% Bishop). While this is an impressive start to the campaign for Keown, the news is even better among some key subgroups. Among the 78% of voters who rate their interest in the election between 8 and 10 on a 1 to 10 scale, the ballot is actually tied (48% Keown/48% Bishop). In more encouraging news for the Keown campaign, Keown leads by twelve points (53% Keown/41% Bishop) with the 52% of voters who have heard of both candidates. Being tied with the most interested voters and leading by double digits with the voters paying the most attention is a great place for a challenger to be at this point in the race.

Do you think Keown can win?

H/T: Kyle Constable

seenbetrdayz August 12, 2010 at 12:21 pm

Not that my one vote matters, but I kind of like the guy. I really think that Bishop has been there for too long.

Foreign policy wise, there’s not much difference between either Keown or Bishop, so without better options on that particular issue, I’d have to lean towards Keown given everything else. I don’t think Bishop is going anywhere for a while, though. He knows what he has to say to win the votes of SW GA. That’s not necessarily a good thing, but well, for him I guess it is.

American Delight August 12, 2010 at 12:30 pm

I think Bishop normally wins 70-30, so a Keown victory would be quite the accomplishment.

BuckheadConservative August 12, 2010 at 12:58 pm

In 1998, Joe McCormick pulled 43% and in 2000 Dylan Glenn pulled 47%. Sanford hasn’t faced any credible opposition since then however. I think the demographics of the district are more favorable than what Glenn faced, but I could be completely wrong on that.

Goldwater Conservative August 12, 2010 at 2:04 pm

Wow, what a typical polling memo.

Anybody care to guess what Congressman Tom Price’s name recognition was in 2008? 7%. Yeah, you read that correctly, 7%. Did that stop him from winning by 30points? No.

Keown, like many losers, is being taken for a ride by his “advisors” and pollsters if they tell him it is possible he may win.

Harry August 12, 2010 at 2:06 pm

What do you know? You don’t even live in Georgia anymore.

Harry August 12, 2010 at 2:09 pm

I have a couple of black Democratic friends who are conflicted about Obama due to the economy, social issues, etc. It could be bad news for Bishop if these people decide not to vote.

Goldwater Conservative August 12, 2010 at 2:32 pm

Harry, I do not need to live in GA to know this.

I earned by PhD in Political Science over 50 years ago and practiced professionally and as an academic since. My forte is methodology. I know a bull$hit polling memo when I see one. Polling is less about helping a candidate win and more about convincing the candidate to keep running and paying consulting fees to the polling firm as well as any mail and media firms they know. If pollsters told candidates the truth the political industry would only be a $500million a year industry.

Of course your black friend is conflicted about the economy. Most people are. They do not understand how fragile economies are. It takes years to stabilize an economy and then rebuild…it only takes a few bad weeks to sink it. They are not worried about social issues…they are simply trying to find a way to be agreeable with you. There are no social issues that are in the politisphere that anybody need worry about.

Do not underestimate how ignorant people can be. 25% of the GOP do not think Obama was born in the US despite all evidence pointing to his birth in Hawaii. 20% blame Obama for the housing industry collapse (mind you, that happened in July 2007). There are even people that bought Levin’s Liberty and Tyranny and think there are facts in it (and there aren’t…nearly the entire book is a work of fiction).

Bill30097 August 13, 2010 at 10:38 am

PHD = Piled High & Deep

Goldwater Conservative August 12, 2010 at 2:08 pm

For the rest of you, “most interested voters” is pollster code for strong partisans. Big deal, the most liberal 5%-10% of people favor Bishop and know who he is and the most conservative 5%-10% favor Keown and know who he is.

That doesn’t tell us anything other than the fact that Public Opinion Strategies is about as scientific as Insider Advantage (ranked #60 out of 63) for accuracy.

Kyle Constable August 12, 2010 at 2:10 pm

James, Insider Advantage had the GOP gubernatorial race right, so you might want to lay off Keown. I bet you’ve never even been to Southwest Georgia.

Goldwater Conservative August 12, 2010 at 2:54 pm

I bet you have never done an analysis of the published polls from the 70 most prominent polling firms to determine a ordinal ranking for each.

I know IA was correct about the GOP race. If I told you the sun would rise tomorrow and I was correct would you believe me to be an expert on predicting the future? If I told you the sun would rise on August 14th, 3010 would you believe me?

My point is that a poll taken the weekend before an election is pretty useless. I can not think of many polling companies that get that one wrong. To determine accuracy a researcher needs to set a significant cut-off date for the publication of polls…I use 3 weeks in my research, the standard is between 16 and 24 days. IA had Barnes in a run-off at 25 days, slight lead at 23 days and no absolute victory until 4 days before the election. They also had Oxendine in the run-0ff with Handel and the 25 day poll (before the runoff). An unpublished IA poll that was made privy to me 10 days before the election put Handel in the lead by 13 points.

Nobody ever has to go to the district in which an election is being held to tell you how to conduct a poll properly and calculate measures of error to introduce. Screw SW GA. There is nothing there that is of interest to me other than Bishop winning reelection. I do not even need to worry about donating to him to make certain he has the money to win…that district is all sewn up.

When you grow up you will understand…but from what I have learned from my days in GA I should not expect you to. Keown will need to raise and spend about $1.5million by October 31st if he wants to be within 5 points of Bishop on election day. Something tells me that a baptist minister that does not have sense enough to update his website to appeal to the median voter is not personally successful enough to raise that kind of money, for one, and, secondly, he is probably too ignorant to be taken seriously by the political establishment in either Atlanta or DC.

Gerald August 12, 2010 at 3:18 pm

” he is probably too ignorant to be taken seriously by the political establishment in either Atlanta or DC”

And you think this of him because he is a Baptist minister, per chance?

And what evidence is there that Bishop is taken seriously by the political establishment in Atlanta or DC? The guy has been a warm body in the House for over a decade, just like his predecessor. The “representation” that this district has can be used as evidence why we should get rid of our current system for electing U.S. representatives and instead elect them statewide, or let the legislature pick them.

And it is curious to know that the people in SW GA who have families, businesses, jobs, lives etc. are not of any interest to you. Spoken like a typical arrogant big city LIBERAL who doesn’t realize the importance of the agricultural economy, and who doesn’t care about the need to develop jobs and schools in sparsely populated areas because you’d rather throw away the money and effort on social engineering projects in our cities.

Folks like you are a huge reason why I left the Democratic Party and am never going back.

As for this race, I used to like Bishop, but he took the easy, cowardly way out in the only 2 real tests of his LONG political career in voting against impeachment and for ObamaCare. He is nothing like Arturo Hawkins of Alabama, who had the guts to vote against ObamaCare and as a result was abandoned by black voters. So if Keown wins, he will be a white Republican representing a mostly black district that has been in Democratic hands since Reconstruction. If that doesn’t force the political establishment to take him seriously, then screw the establishment.

jeff August 12, 2010 at 6:27 pm

The district is actually 51% white. The district has not been straight democrat. For example, George Bush carried the district when he ran for president. Bishop was for years a moderate democrat. That is why he was popular within the district. That was until the democrats gained power of the house and senate. After that he has voted straight down the party lines. He has been so out of touch with the wishes of the people he represents for the last 4 years. I really think this might be the year he gets voted out. It will definitely be the closet contest he has ever had.

Goldwater Conservative August 12, 2010 at 8:34 pm

The whole minister thing makes me not take him seriously…but that is not the only reason. DC (the party committees and PAC community) will not take him seriously for several other reasons that I really do not care to elaborate on (to be completely honest if you take him seriously as a candidate you probably aren’t all that serious or informed on evaluative methods).

Of course you abandoned the democratic party. It is a party of tolerance and reason, not racial prejudice and political ignorance. Also, the electoral system isn’t broken…you are just an bitter that you can’t always get your way. Democracy is about compromise and deliberation. It is about self-determination and self-development.

Big city liberal? That is code for letting people know that you are an ignorant bumpkin.

I do believe agriculture is vital for America’s political survival. Any nation-state that does not take agriculture seriously is asking for problems. That being said, I seriously doubt that GA farmers could survive were it not for agricultural subsidies.

It is obvious that you are a typical white southern republican. It appears from your post that you have a problem with your congressman being black. Impeachment? Are you serious? Vote against Obamacare? Why would he? I suggest that if you want to argue about constitutional issues (theory, law, etc) you actually study those fields yourself rather than coming to the table armed only with simple sentences and the rhetoric from the radio. That will not get you far.

jeff August 12, 2010 at 8:46 pm

GC – Do you really think Keown cares if you or any of the PACs/committees in DC take him seriously? I think he and the rest of the district are perfectly ok with that because the district currently has a representative who only cares about DC and the PACs and not about the people who have elected him. See my post below. Your attitude makes me not take you seriously!

Gerald August 12, 2010 at 3:09 pm

I was born in southwest Georgia, the district that Bishop represents in fact. That district was represented for years (decades?) by a moderate white rural Democrat. It was one of the ones that had black voters added to it when the George H. W. Bush administration and the Congressional Black Caucus worked together in redistricting to elect more blacks to Congress (which both the CBC and the Bush administration wanted) and more Republican districts (which the Bush administration wanted and the CBC didn’t, but well the CBC wasn’t bright enough to realize that it would be the result). Also, the Democrat who originally held the seat got caught up in that House bad check-writing scandal.

So, Bishop, who didn’t even live in the original district but whose residence and power base was redrawn into it by the Bush DOJ and the CBC, was able to beat the incumbent in the primary, and had no opposition in the general election. Since then, Bishop has done a pretty good job of selling himself as a moderate-conservative Democrat, and there has been no real evidence that the voters in that district don’t like him or associate him with the national party. Bishop was able to survive voting against Bill Clinton’s impeachment, for instance.

His vote for ObamaCare, however, is something different. It is also curious that Bishop has never had opposition from a white Republican since the early 1990s. The last time that he did, it was his closest race. But since then, the GOP has been recruiting (poorly funded and unknown) black Republicans to run against him.

Had Bishop voted against ObamaCare, he’d likely be safe. But since he did, the combination of the ObamaCare vote and his finally getting a challenge from a white GOPer in Keown means that Bishop may be in real trouble despite the fact that the district still basically leans Democratic.

seenbetrdayz August 12, 2010 at 5:45 pm

Probably not a bad assessment, Gerald. At least, it’s a bit more well thought out than Mr. I have a Ph.D. in BeingWayMoreAwesomeThanAnyOfYouOthersEverWillBe-ology’s. Probably better than any poll, for that matter.

I live in Peach County, which is about as far as you can get from Seminole County, the SW corner, without leaving District 2, but we do have Fort Valley, which is like a midget twin of Albany. [Modify] I’m not meaning to infer that Albany is in Seminole or the SW corner, it’s in Dougherty. Had to use the [Modify] because I re-read it and thought that might be confusing.

Until Mr. Bishop started getting my attention with some particularly awful votes, I knew practically nothing about him. I left the slot open in 2008, because I try to make it a practice not to vote FOR someone that I know nothing about. I try to do my homework, because uninformed/straight-ticket (i.e. I voted for them because they had my favorite letter beside their name) voters, I believe, will be the end of this country. I’m not passing judgement on Lee Ferrell, I just didn’t look him up that year. I looked him up this year, but wasn’t terribly impressed.

I have to disagree that race deserves much emphasis this time around, though. I think it works in the short term, to look at that as a factor and weigh it heavily, but eventually, people will start to look past that and start looking at the voting records. Your assessment of Sanford’s record is pretty good. I think it will be the main factor this year.

Let me be clear though, that I do have some reservations about Keown. I’m continuing to research him before doing anything like drastic like donating money or, more importantly, finally casting my vote for him. I’d like to have some confidence that he’s not a party-line voter, who goes along lockstep and unquestioningly with whatever bad ideas that GOP leaders can come up with. Getting rid of a Bishop and replacing him with a Chambliss is nothing to celebrate, IMO.

jeff August 12, 2010 at 6:21 pm

GC – You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about when you talk about Keown. He is far from ignorant and really doesn’t care if he is taken seriously by any establishment. So far he has raised far more money from WITHIN the district than Sanford Bishop has and last reporting quarter his total contributions were higher than Bishop’s. Thru June he has raised close to $400,000. 98% of that from individual supporters within the district. Almost 70% of Bishop’s money has come from PACs in California and Washington. Keown is in touch with the voters of the district. Bishop isn’t. Keown isn’t your typical token republican running against Bishop. He isn’t the Lee Ferrell of 2008 running on $10,000. He is well on his way to raising over 1,000,000 before the November election. Keown is not a “loser” and doesn’t have “advisors” like you think he may. His campaign is truly a huge grass roots effort and his support is far bigger than most people know. He made a major statement by winning 81% of the vote in a 3 way primary race. This is the most serious race Bishop has ever had.

Seenbetrdayz – I can assure you that Keown is not a straight party rep. Just research his voting record you will find that he went against the Speaker, Governor, etc. many times during his 6 years in Atlanta. He truly represented his district. He doesn’t play politics. He was not well liked by the power politicians in Atl because he couldn’t be intimidated or bought. He was never given an appointment to any influential committee, never given a nice office, etc… He didn’t care about any of that. His only concern are the people that he represents. Ask anyone from his state house district. They will tell you the same. He got more votes from the two counties in his state house district (Grady, Thomas) than his two opponents received in the whole 32 county district combined in the July primary. They speaks volumes for how those people feel about his representation.

Goldwater Conservative August 12, 2010 at 9:06 pm

We all have one vote. That is political equality in the roughest terms. What people like “seenbetterdays” do not get is that we are not political equals in every regard. There is an asymmetry of information and knowledge in nearly every aspect of human interaction. This is especially true in politics.

I always get a kick out of this. Nearly everyone trusts medical advise and the predictions given by medical doctors. Nearly everyone trusts the legal advice given by their attorney. Before the market collapse people even listened to investment advice given by their financial advisers. When it comes to politics there is a disconnect. After 50 years I am still proud that I had the courage to pursue a PhD in political science. Even after the ridicule I have received from small minds like that of seenbetterdays or Gerald. Politics is methodologically predictable as physics or chemistry or medicine…the only thing that makes it more difficult is that people, unlike bacteria and atoms, can change their minds. They react in varying magnitudes to a milieu of events.

I have no idea who Gerald or who seenbetterdays are. Anonymity is one of the things that makes the Internet so profitable and so widely used. I am sure there are things Gerald knows that I do not…and I am certain that I do not care to learn about them. Given Gerald’s demeanor on this blog, however, I can say with absolute certainty that I know the political system and the outcomes it produces better than he. That is the prize for dedicating my life to the study and research of the political. I know more about that particular thing than most. Politics is no different than any other profession or trade. Practitioners and those with advanced degrees in the field know more about it.

You want evidence that Bishop is taken seriously by the political community and Keown isn’t? Look at the PAC money and the party committees rather than taking only my word for it. The fact that Bishop is raising PAC money and the race has not caught the eye of the party committees (DCCC and RNCC) should be evidence enough that Keown is not and will not be taken seriously as a candidate. He may truly believe in the issue statements he has made (and for the record they are shortsighted and misguided at best) and I will not argue that. I simply stated some truths earlier today that are not taken seriously by several people on this blog.

Lastly, before you take issue with my statements regarding the intent of the polling memo, I encourage you to go to a research university and work on earning at least your masters in applied statistics or some other research intensive social science then spending several years consulting in the political industry. This little memo from POS is the biggest contribution Keown will receive. A republican polling firm (maybe hired by Keown maybe not) wrote a polite letter indicating that Keown will not win but could win if the resources were available. That is, to use John McCain’s language, “political double speak.” Anybody with enough resources can win any election. Furthermore, you can bet your @$$ that polling companies issue these letters to increase the morale of candidates. Candidates that give up do not spend money and the political industry thrives because people like myself (before full retirement) understand the value of synergy. There is no laws against insider trading in the political industry and it is not illegal to take advantage of naive candidates (having held elective office does not shed one of naivete in this industry).

jeff August 12, 2010 at 9:22 pm

I guess we should all bow down to you and your political genius. Like I said before. Let Bishop continue to be supported by the PACs in DC and California. The people who are voting in this race are taking note of that. The fact that you are here saying Keown is naive, ignorant, and a loser shows that this race is gaining some serious attention. The NRCC has taken notice of this race. Fundraising by Keown has turned alot of heads. Over the last 10 years, no race Bishop has been in has received any publicity or thought. He hasn’t even had to campaign in any recent election cycles. All that has changed. He has his hands full dealing with voters who aren’t “political equals” as you would say. The voters of this district don’t think the issues are “shortsighted” or “misguided”.

seenbetrdayz August 12, 2010 at 10:33 pm

I have no idea who Gerald or who seenbetterdays are. Anonymity is one of the things that makes the Internet so profitable and so widely used.

Mr. Conservative, Goldwater Ph.D.

(If that’s your real name).

Dude, don’t look now, but you’re on the internet, too. (see how that works?)

Frankly, nobody here knows %*#t about you. One reason your credentials don’t matter (or any random blogger’s for that matter, myself included), is because for all we know, you’re making the %*#t up. Peach Pundit is a BLOG. All you really have to go by on BLOGs is what people say. The alias they use to type things can be made up, sure, but the words appear on your monitor all the same, are real, and are coming from someone.

Unless you’re one of the few people here that actually get out and go have a drink with other PP’ers from time to time, nobody knows anything about you and your ‘courageously obtained’, internet-proclaimed Ph.D.

For all I know, judging by this new tool at the bottom of the screen that shows where people are at, I’m just gonna guess that you’re that guy who keeps logging in from somewhere off the eastern coast of Africa. You’re probably the only person there with a Ph. D. in Political Science, and I’m sure it’s very useful to their nation, so why don’t you stop worrying about Sanford Bishop and do what you can to help those people sort out their political issues.

jeff August 12, 2010 at 10:42 pm

GC – you do realize that the guy you keep calling “ignorant” and “naive” has an earned doctorate as well. Keown’s doctorate isn’t in the superior field of Political Science like yours but he does have a Doctor of Ministry. I can guarantee you that he is far from naive or ignorant and he sure isn’t a loser.

lukethedrifter August 13, 2010 at 8:15 am

“and the race has not caught the eye of the party committees (DCCC and RNCC) should be evidence enough that Keown is not and will not be taken seriously as a candidate.”

I’ll give you a pass, because you are ignorant to the facts here. The DCCC may not have this race on their radar…yet. The NRCC, however, absolutely has this race in their scopes. How do I know that? Well, you’ll just have to trust me, like I trust that you do have 50 years experience in political science. When the Georgia GOP House Delegation goes back into session next month, look for Keown to start receiving checks from Republican House Members and their friends in the PAC community fast.

This race, more so than the 8th CD (which is also very winnable) is going to shock a lot of people.

For a good reference, see Barr vs. Darden 1994. Barr wasn’t given a chance in hell before the primary, but showed competence in fundraising and soon got attention from the national movements. In Keown’s case, unlike Barr, he actually has current Members of Congress lobbying on his behalf.

Add to this a “nationalized” election and soon you will have to call him, Congressman Keown.

MSBassSinger August 13, 2010 at 9:28 am

GC,

Having an advanced degree carries with it the responsibility to use it wisely and to allow your reason and intellect to overcome your lower feelings. I am sorry you have avoided this responsibility.

I would think a person with a Ph. D. in Political Science would discuss issues and avoid petty bigotry. You stated “The whole minister thing makes me not take him seriously”. I suppose that extends to Lymon Hall and John Witherspoon, both ministers.

Statements like:
“When you grow up you will understand”,
“if you take him seriously as a candidate you probably aren’t all that serious”,
“you are a typical white southern republican.”
“It appears from your post that you have a problem with your congressman being black. ”
do not indicate a reasoned person using the benefits of his or her education.

MSBassSinger August 12, 2010 at 4:38 pm

I am from that district (Cairo), and Mike has a very good reputation in the black community. He has done a lot of charitable work there. Anyone who thinks “black” means an automatic Democrat vote down there is making a big mistake.

So-called “GoldwaterConservative” is really missing the mark on this one.

debbie0040 August 12, 2010 at 4:47 pm

GC, your arrogance and elitism is no surprise. Atlanta Tea Party has that as one of our targeted districts. There will be volunteers statewide helping in that district. It is a difficult district to win but no one thought Scott Brown had a chance in the People’s Republic of Massachusetts and he won. Then there is New Jersey.

I think money will come in to that district. Time will tell, but I would bet the NRCC will be sending money.

There also areas where there are a lot of farmers that will be hurt by Cap and Trade which Bishop supports.

Goldwater Conservative August 12, 2010 at 9:20 pm

Wow debbie. I encourage you to learn what socialism and communism are before you through comments around like that. Your level of ignorance is predictable given the whole Tea Party thing. Furthermore, the GDP contribution made by MA is larger than GA’s despite having a smaller population. It also has a higher ranked education system and university system. The standard of living is higher…as is the health care system. I can go on and on. I would suggest that if you are going to continue with the name calling you have some ammunition of your own to defend your home state and agenda…because GA is not doing so very well with the system it uses.

Of course the tea party is targeting Bishop. He is black and a democrat. It has nothing to do with the CBA of the tea party’s involvement…as I am certain you people are not capable of doing the math.

I am an elite…but I am not elitist. I believe democracy has it right…every one should have a say. The situated knowledge each person carries with them from their unique experience on this earth informs democracy and makes democratic action stronger and more certain. As smoothly the country would run if a benevolent dictator actually existed, such a system, in my opinion, would be neither just nor legitimate. We have a great system here in America…a mixed system….a thing of beauty.

I think you do not know what you are talking about. Money doesn’t just appear in the district…it comes as consequence of the things expected to come. If Keown can show $1.4 million cash on hand in his Sept 30th disclosure then the RNCC might take an interest. I think he has tapped out his personal base and has hit a wall because the PAC community (even the “friendly” PACs are turning him down).

Cap and Trade is not hurting farmers in GA. It is a weak policy that will have no middle to long term economic impact (my way of saying that the impact will be a wash). But you know what will hurt farmers in SW GA? The immigration position Keown and the tea party takes.

jeff August 12, 2010 at 9:32 pm

Like I said before, Keown isn’t looking for the PAC community (even the “friendly PACs) to finance his campaign. Cap and Trade won’t hurt the farmers? Tell that to the farmers. They certainly feel that it will hurt them. That one vote has turned the majority of the farmers, that once supported Bishop, against him. Support for Keown runs much deeper than your intelligent mind is able to grasp at this time.

Blog Goliard August 12, 2010 at 10:26 pm

“Politics is no different than any other profession or trade. Practitioners and those with advanced degrees in the field know more about it.”

Obviously you’re counting on Peach Pundit readers to not be very well acquainted with many Ph.D.s in Political Science.

I am. And of the many things about them I know to be true, here are two that are most pertinent to this discussion:

1) Of all the Ph.D.s I’ve ever known–with due acknowledgment given to the vast store of knowledge and insight can collectively contribute–I can think of exactly one whom I would even dream of considering if I were in the market for senior campaign staff.

2) Of all the Ph.D.s I’ve ever known, it’s invariably been the ones most desperate to wave their degrees around who are the profoundest ignoramuses and biggest bozos.

And another thing:

“Politics is methodologically predictable as physics or chemistry or medicine…the only thing that makes it more difficult is that people, unlike bacteria and atoms, can change their minds.”

You say that like it’s a pesky little detail, rather than the great shoal upon which every pretension of “social science” eventually wrecks.

There was a fine little essay in City Journal recently which covers this ground admirably well (it is less critical of some scientific efforts and a skosh less humanistic overall than I would like, but it’s still an exemplary article from a periodical I can’t recommend highly enough):

What Social Science Does—and Doesn’t—Know
Our scientific ignorance of the human condition remains profound.
http://www.city-journal.org/2010/20_3_social-science.html

Also, you may say you recognize that people are people, and not bacteria or atoms…but you seem to have little hesitation in treating your inferiors (i.e. almost everybody) as if they were.

“I am an elite…but I am not elitist.”

Okay, forgive me for jumping over to Wikipedia for this one rather than dragging out my unabridged Webster’s, but try this on for size:

https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Elitism
“Elitism is the belief or attitude that some individuals, who supposedly form an elite — a select group of people with, intellect, wealth, specialized training or experience, or other distinctive attributes — are those whose views on a matter are to be taken the most seriously or carry the most weight or those who view their own views as so…”

Man, that must be just like looking in a mirror for you.

“As smoothly the country would run if a benevolent dictator actually existed, such a system, in my opinion, would be neither just nor legitimate.”

Unless the dictator were you, of course.

I’m not fooled by the lip service you give democracy just before saying that.

Others might be. You might even be yourself. But I know your type. Oh, do I ever.

(And so, tragically, does modern history.)

Goldwater Conservative August 13, 2010 at 9:37 am

Elitism, in the political ideological sense, is the idea that the elite are better endowed to make political decisions than the non-elite. I figured you would just google the word elitism and go with what you found. That is not research.

Not even were I the dictator would I believe such a system would be just.

I do not wave my academic success around to be elitist…I do it very rarely and it is to prove a point which nearly always falls on deaf ears. Most professors do not engage in professional politics…it is rather futile and few have the time outside of their own research interests and teaching.

Of course the social sciences have yet to explore many frontiers. Methodologically speaking, the areas of public opinion and political attitudes is well charted and consistently accurate. I apologize if you do not like being studied as if you were some other animal…but you are and your behavior (as well as all humans) is very predictable and easily taken advantage of (in the aggregate). Furthermore, the City Journal is not a research journal. It is commentary.

Actually, your whole comment about my belief in democracy being nothing but lip service is rather predictable. You might understand my position on democracy if you took the time better understand democracy itself (both ancient and post-structural). There are people, like me, that dedicate their lives to the study of these things. Conservative commentators on the radio, Fox News and other right-wing publications believe democracy is only a decision making rule…and that just goes to show how truly ignorant and uncaring they are.

Blog Goliard August 13, 2010 at 10:44 am

“Furthermore, the City Journal is not a research journal. It is commentary.”

I am well aware that City Journal is a publication dedicated to thoughtful commentary on public affairs, rather than a peer-reviewed journal of academic research. But, apparently unlike you, I’m willing to take seriously the thoughtful writings of knowledgeable individuals whether or not they ever finished their Ph.D.s…and whether or not they see the world the same as I do.

“You might understand my position on democracy if you took the time better understand democracy itself (both ancient and post-structural). ”

It’s terribly endearing, this habit you have. The one where you immediately conclude that someone–about whom you know nothing–is uneducated and ignorant on a subject because they disagree with you, or see the world differently than you, or express themselves differently than you would.

In your nightmares, the bogeymen of Rush Limbaugh and Fox News and such may be responsible for all those unlettered idiots out there who disagree with you, whether the question is how to define elitism or democracy, or what the true significance and motivations of the Tea Party are, or whether a certain Congressional candidate has a real shot in November.

In reality, many of us have read more widely and carefully and deeply than you would ever imagine. And to fill the gaps in our knowledge, we refer to others, many of whom have held Ph.D.s as long as you have, and have publication records that you might even envy…yet, strangely enough, see and interpret the world in much the same fashion as some of us brainwashed redneck boobs.

Maybe just reading National Review or listening to talk radio for a few hours is enough to melt the brains of people who have read Aristotle in the original Greek. Just goes to show you can’t be too careful in protecting an educated mind from the ignorant prejudices of the plebs. I would congratulate you for your success in doing so…except you seem to be running an awful risk in continuing to interact with all the uncredentialed cretins here, aren’t you?

debbie0040 August 13, 2010 at 8:43 am

Our issue is not with the pigment of Obama’s skin, it is with his policies. There is a big double standard when it comes to race. The NAACP did not condemn Rev. Wright’s comments, the Black Panther voter intimidation in PA, Louis Farrakhan’s comments, and they did not support Kenneth Gladney when he was brutally attacked by Union Thugs that used racial slurs. In fact a local chapter of the NAACP actually solicited funds to pay for the defense of the union thugs that attacked Gladney. Racism is wrong, period..

We are excellent in math, especially the math of poll numbers. Speaking of which, have you taken a look at Obama’s approval rating lately?

As far as the money goes, I can assure you that YOU are showing your ignorance…You are also showing your ignorance with your comments on Cap and Trade…

Goldwater Conservative August 13, 2010 at 9:47 am

Obama’s poll numbers mean little right now. Fact is, his name is not on the November ballot. Neither is Palin’s and the Tea Party is not really a political party.

Speaking of which, you must not have seen in weeks take. We are in the General Election phase now. Palin and the Tea Party are a liability and a greater one than Obama.

No, you are not excellent at math. If you were you would realize that the units of analysis in which you think are incorrect.

Obama’s national approval means nothing. Their does any other national approval rating for any organization or individual. Members of Congress are not elected nationally. There is, afterall, a reason why the incumbent reelection rate is around 95%. I know you probably hate Pelosi…but she has a safe seat and there is nothing you can do about it. Same goes for about 400 other members of Congress.

I don’t care what the NAACP does. Or Wright. Their actions are part of the PR strategies and they are not interested in your support.

debbie0040 August 13, 2010 at 10:24 am

If the approval numbers don’t mean anything in the mid term, then why are Democratic candidates like Roy Barnes running away from Obama? Look at the Democratic incumbents that chose not to seek re-election this year. You just keep living in your fantasy land world. You and others like you will be in for a very rude awakening November 2nd. Presidents Carter, Reagan and Clinton had low approval ratings in their mid term and their parties lost a great deal of seats in the general election.

Tea Party 48% Obama 44%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/april_2010/tea_party_48_obama_44

The tea parties have been very successful in pointing out the liberal policy flaws of Pres. Obama and his party. And for the recrod, they are very critical of W and his big government policies.

Most Voters Say Obama, Congressional Democrats More Liberal Than They Are
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/august_2010/most_voters_say_obama_congressional_democrats_more_liberal_than_they_are

57% of Likely Voters Describe Democratic Congressional Agenda As Extreme
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/august_2010/57_of_likely_voters_describe_democratic_congressional_agenda_as_extreme

Doug Grammer August 13, 2010 at 11:22 am

“Obama’s national approval means nothing.”

I’ll bet if his numbers were higher, Gov. Barnes would be seen in the same city as the President.

MSBassSinger August 13, 2010 at 9:30 am

GC,

Are you trying to say the US is a democracy?

Goldwater Conservative August 13, 2010 at 9:39 am

You do not want to have that conversation with me.

The US is not a democracy. It is a democratic republic. We outsource decision making to representatives, but do so in a democratic manor.

MSBassSinger August 13, 2010 at 10:07 am

Good answer. The US is actually a Constitutional republic that utilizes limited democracy. But I suspect I am merely describing a different part of the same elephant whose complete description is more than a simple blog can hold.

And, if you were to offer an intellectual conversation on “the US as a democracy”, rather than engage in ad hominems when we see things differently, I would probably enjoy that conversation.

Doug Grammer August 13, 2010 at 11:18 am

GC,

“I am an elite…but I am not elitist.” Just out curiosity, what would an elitist say?

I have disagreed with many of your posts in the past, but with the information you have shared in this thread, I have a better understanding of why. Apparently, anyone who disagrees with you is ignorant. You know more than they do, but you are not an elitist. When Gerald called you a big city liberal, you responded with he has a small mind and called him an ignorant bumpkin. You haven’t owned up to the fact that you are a liberal, despite what your login name says.

You want respect for having a PHD in political science? Fine. Please tell us the name of your successful political consulting company or at least how far you have raised within the ranks of the DPG. According to you, the tea party movement is ignorant and racist. Many of them are average people who are feed up with politics as usual. They don’t just vote for the GOP, they support those who agree with their values. Just because they don’t agree with you, that doesn’t make them racists. It shows how ignorant YOU are.

You wish to portray yourself as an accomplished political scientist. What you have failed to understand is that you have let your own political bias contaminant the results of an experiment, or in this case, the observation of a poll. You did say a few things that I agree with. Political consulting companies want money, and results of a poll usually show that with enough money, you can win. Really good political consultants will give the candidate an idea of how much money is needed and offer suggestions on how to spend it. If they build up a name for getting people elected, they will attract more business.

I don’t know if Keown will win or not. He has his name on the ballot, so he has a chance. Polls only show how people feel at a certain point in time, and you are correct that people can change their mind. The fact that he is a Baptist minister probably helps him more than it hurts him in a rural area. If he were campaigning in downtown Atlanta, then I’d agree that it might be a negative. His faith does not make him ignorant.

PAC’s give to incumbents. They rarely give to challenger campaigns. It doesn’t matter which party they are, but it might make a difference on which PAC gives. If you don’t know that by now, no one should take you seriously no matter what degrees you have or how long you have had them.

If you don’t think cap and trade will have an impact on farmers, then you don’t know much about cap and trade.

Doug Grammer August 13, 2010 at 11:29 am

BTW, I love how you start by citing Congressman Price’s numbers and then his going on to victory and then discount Keown who is polling higher than Congressman Price was.

Blog Goliard August 13, 2010 at 11:40 am

I’m sure if you and I weren’t so ignorant we’d have immediately seen how the situations were completely different.

Lady Thinker August 15, 2010 at 7:37 pm

Goldwater Conservative,

I have higher education also, although I don’t have my Ph.D yet, and I do not use it as a club to make others feel stupid and to make me feel superior. Debbie0040 is not stupid, even if you disagree with her for whatever reasons. She has posted some very intelligent and thought provoking comments in the ten months I have been reading PP.

I suggest that you get a copy of the “How to Win Friends and Influence People,” like I have done in an effort to be less confrontational and more understanding of the viewpoints of others, and learn how to get your points across without being such a jackas$.

Herb August 13, 2010 at 8:01 am

Ain’t no way Keown comes close. Bishop will win on Barnes’s coattails 59-41 come November.

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