Runoff Predictions

Make your predictions here.  But if you bet someone a steak dinner on the outcome, just be sure to pony up if you lose.  Some things will never be forgotten.  Here are my predictions:

Governor: Deal wins by 3 points or less.
Attorney General: Olens wins by 5 points or more.
Insurance Commissioner: Sheffield by 5 points or more.
Public Service Commissioner 2: Echols wins by 5 points or less.
7th CD: Woodall wins by 5 points or less.
9th CD: Graves wins by 7 points or more.

Feel free to share yours below.

71 comments

    • Jace Walden says:

      I don’t bet but I feel Karen will win in the runoff and in the general.

      And 2 out of the last 3 polls that have been released support your feeling. But, maybe its just my youth and inexperience talking, I just don’t see this victory that everyone else sees for Handel. And I’ve seen all the evidence to support the idea that she’ll win:

      I’ve seen the election results: She won 61 counties, and placed 2nd in most of the counties she lost.

      I’ve seen the crosstabs: Showing that there is no gender gap or real difference in her support among rural/urban voters.

      I’ve seen the polling: Like I said, two out of the last 3 polls have her ahead by a fairly comfortable margin.

      But what I don’t see is how she wins. It just seems like every election I can remember, since I started watching, has come down to Atlanta vs. Georgia. Urban vs. Rural. City folk vs. Country folk. I really don’t see this election being any different.

      For Nathan Deal to win, he doesn’t have to beat Karen in any of the metro counties. He simply has to be competitive (within a couple points) in every one of them, and he has to hold on to the rural vote by a couple points. For Karen to win, she has to have a couple of metro county blow-outs. And she has to pick off a significant, outside-the-perimenter, county or two, like Bibb or Chatham.

      I guess we’ll see what happens.

      • Lady Thinker says:

        Jace,

        I have been following these races for more years than you have probably been alive, assuming you are younger than say 33, and I still don’t have it down to a science because there are way too many variables. The key is to keep studying the data and make your most educated guess. Some of the time you will bat 100, some of the time you will bat a zero, and the rest of the time will be at some point in between.

    • Ramblinwreck says:

      I don’t think Karen will win because even though this is 2010 it’s still the South and there are a lot of people, including many women, who will not vote for a woman for something as important as governor. Couple this with the perception that she’s pro choice and a friend of the log cabin Republicans she’s going to have a hard time carrying rural areas.

      • Lady Thinker says:

        RW,

        I feel you may be right and it is sad on so many levels. Women have made alot of strides but we aren’t where I think we should be in 2010. After all, women have had the vote less than 100 years.

  1. Governor – Deal will win by 5 votes, after a lengthy recount and court battle that will work its way up to the Georgia State Supreme Court. Both sides will rack up millions in legal fees.

    AG – Olens wins easy. 8-10% or more.

    Insurance – I want Sheffield, but I believe Hudgens will win by 10%.

    PSC – Douglas will win easy. Same for Woodall and Graves.

    P.S. Extra Prediction – Bristol Palin and her babydaddy, Levi Johnston will get back together and split 5 more times between now and 2012.

    • Bill Knowles says:

      Come on Luke. Have you actually met or talked to anyone who really wants Hudgens in there besides Hudgens? Maria has been severely outspent and almost knocked him off in the primary. She won almost as many counties and came in 2nd in more than Ralph did. Seth Harp, Stephen Northington and Rick Collum have all come out and endorsed us along with Barry Goldwater, Jr.

      I say it will be close, but Maria will win by 3%

      • EllaPatriot says:

        I respectfully disagree with you Bill. Sheffield CLAIMS she is running a positive campaign. She is anything BUT positive. Her previous ineundos and implications arent based on fact or truth — they are based on liberal playbook. Her words like “Hudgens is confused” is using ageism as a political tactic.

        In the runoff debate on GPB it looked like she was reading from a teleprompter– She looks like an Oxendine Robot. I truly hope Georgia is not fooled by the Sheffield .

        I’m sorry, but I just dont believe there is true distance between Ox and herself. I doubt she will stand up and run the Dept of Insurance any differently than Ox

        And just now on twitter — she is using past opponents quotes. Hmm! Cant come up with your own message? Gotta steal others? Give me a break!

        • Provocateur says:

          Did he or didn’t he say “An Insurance Commissioner cannot do squat about Obamacare?”

    • Bill Knowles says:

      Straight out of the Saul Alinsky handbook that you are so fond of Mary. Rules for Radicals teaches that organizers, such as yourself, must give a moral appearance instead of actually being moral. Or to quote, “All effective action requires the passport of morality.”

      • EllaPatriot says:

        My Agreed was to Mary, NOT to Bill. However,

        As for Bill… you are right. That is just what Sheffield camp is doing… giving the appearance of being positive instead of actually being positive. Claiming in her posts and twitter TRUTH.. so what is all the other stuff she posts? LIES? Dare to dream for such transparency.

        • Bill Knowles says:

          Here’s an interesting fact: The Thomasville Times-Enterprise endorsed Purcell in the primary. Apparently there are a lot of former Purcell supporters going to Maria.

          In their words:
          Insurance commissioner — Before the July 20 primary, Ralph Hudgens said, “As far as fighting Obamacare, I’ll say it again. (The insurance commissioner) can’t do squat.”

          We find Hudgens’ decision to raise the white flag without putting up a fight unacceptable. We opt for Maria Sheffield, who promises to combat the new federal mandates with every legal, political, constitutional and moral resource available.

          http://timesenterprise.com/opinion/x1243790341/Closing-Barnes-door

          • EllaPatriot says:

            I thought 2010 was going to be the year for REAL change and true leadership. It looks like it is going to be just another political year full of disappointments.

            I think Sheffield might actually pull it off — however I attribute it to “girl power.” There is a underground swelling going on for electing women. I’m all for electing women if they are the best candidate — NOT because they are women.

            I will be holding my nose and voting in all 6 races tomorrow!

              • GG says:

                Maria Sheffield doesn’t have ethics charges following her around like Hudgens. You would think after 14 years in state government he could come up with a better excuse for failing to disclose the $100,000 loan to his campaign as a an oversight. Then we have that little matter of improperly transferring $106,600 in contributions from his state Senate campaign fund.

  2. Kellie says:

    Handel pulls through by 2%

    Graves wins for the forth time. This time by 20% and Hawkins asks for a recount. Then starts his campaign for 2012.

      • Joshua Morris says:

        Graves’ and Hawkins’ current addresses won’t be in the same district in 2012. However, I’m sure Graves will still be adept at hiding from the truth and misrepresenting his opponent.

        • Joshua Morris says:

          I don’t know, but I do know the Gainesville Times spoke very highly of him yesterday:

          “Graves is the incumbent in the race due to having won a special election earlier in the year. Yet he has hanging over his head the dark shadow of a potentially nasty and troubling lawsuit involving an unmet financial obligation to a bank and the manipulation of property ownership to avoid meeting that obligation.

          “It would be beneficial to voters to have more detailed information about the transaction before the runoff, but that isn’t the case. Graves may yet shed the personal baggage and prove to be an excellent congressman, but Hawkins is a solid, proven candidate of high personal character who we are convinced would serve the district well in Washington.

          “We hope that you will consider voting for Lee Hawkins as a replacement for Deal in Washington.”

          In light of that, this quote comes to mind:
          “Now more than ever the people are responsible for the character of their Congress. If that body be ignorant, reckless, and corrupt, it is because the people tolerate ignorance, recklessness, and corruption. If it be intelligent, brave, and pure, it is because the people demand these high qualities to represent them in the national legislature.” – James Garfield, 1877

  3. GaConservative23 says:

    If Deal wins it’ll be close.
    Olens wins easily.
    Sheffield probably wins, but it’ll be close.
    John Douglas hopefully wins by a comfortable margin.
    Woodall by 7 or 8%
    Graves wins easily as well.

  4. Ron Daniels says:

    I think Handel/Deal is too close to call.
    Olens will win, unless turnout goes wonky.
    Sheffield will win in a close race.
    Douglas will win in a close race.

    Congressionally, McKinney, Graves, and Woodall.

  5. Brave New World says:

    Is there any significance to Cobb GOP Chair and Cobb Sheriff jumping ship from Handel’s campaign and now getting behind Deal?

  6. Doug Deal says:

    I ran some numbers and based on my model, I have Handel winning by 7%. The big reason is that if just Deal and Handel bring back their own supporters, Handel wins 60-40. There will likely be a slightly smaller turnout among the other candidates supporters, so even if Deal takes 2/3 of them, he still loses by a point or so, and if they split evenly, the final margin is around 13%, so I am splitting the difference and calling it 7.

          • KingWulfgar says:

            Wow, did Libertarians steal your Junior Mints when you were a kid? It’s like you have a personal vendetta against the LP and it’s weird, man. It’s weird.

          • Doug… this hyperbole you speak of… is that like calling a Republican politician a fiscal conservative because they used a coupon at the grocery store? Cause they certainly haven’t been showing their “less spending, less taxes” side much lately when it comes to tax dollars.

          • LT, I’m not sure. I think Kira has the best chance out of all of them at the moment from what I’ve seen. It looks like she’s getting overwhelming support from Maureen’s blog on AJC.com. She’s certainly got my vote. (And no, I don’t vote for people just because they have an L beside their name. I believe it’s better to vote for whomever would be the best person for Georgia… not whom would help advance a particular party.)

  7. BuckheadConservative says:

    It’s just shocking to me that out of all the great business, legal, military, and political minds we have in this state that this is what were left with.

    • seenbetrdayz says:

      Because nobody that smart wants to surround themselves with some of the dumbest business, legal, military, and political minds we have in this state?

  8. BlackTrain says:

    I’m pulling for Smith in the 12th. He’s got quite a grass roots effort down here in the sticks of Effingham, and McKinney seems a little too cocky.
    We’ll see.

  9. birdfan says:

    Deal wins by 2% because run-off in 9th Congressional District turns out extra voters and he picks up more former supporters of Johnson and Oxedine in Middle and South GA.

    Olens beats Smith by +20

    Hudgens squeaks by Sheffield

    Douglas beats Echols by 5pts

    Graves beats Hawkins for a 5th time…by +20

    Woodall beats Hice by 8 pts

  10. Jane says:

    Deal
    Olens
    Hudgens will win even though I like Sheffield better
    Echols
    Graves will win even though I like Hawkins better
    Woodall

  11. Bill Knowles says:

    I like the fact that everyone continues to say that they like Maria better than Hudgens. Sheffield will pull this out!

  12. amor patriae says:

    Handel
    Olens (unfortunately)
    Sheffield
    Echols
    Woodall

    Haven’t followed the others closely enough to have an opinion or prediction.

  13. debbie0040 says:

    Here is my prediction and I do bet a steak dinner on it .

    The ones with the most votes will win 🙂

Comments are closed.