Mason-Dixon: Handel leads Deal

Another day, another poll. This one from the Georgia Newspaper Partnership, which includes the Atlanta Journal Constitution, via Mason-Dixon shows Karen Handel with a five point lead over Nathan Deal.

Mason-Dixon/Georgia Newspaper Partnership Poll

  • Handel: 47 percent
  • Deal: 42 percent
  • Undecided: 11 percent

Have at it, sock puppets.

57 comments

  1. Note:

    The poll has a +/- 4 percent margin of error
    Deal leads 47-42 outside metro Atlanta
    Deal is up from 23 percent in the primary into the 40s now
    Handel has picked up some support since the primary but not as quickly as Deal

  2. debbie0040 says:

    I hope Karen pulls it out. We should have a pool to see which legislator is the fastest to try to do damage control when Karen wins..

    I think Karen will give Roy Barnes he11 in November. She is our best shot.

      • debbie0040 says:

        Those 4 polls were taken before Deal was hit hard on ethics investigations. If you think Karen has been tough, what on earth do you think Roy Barnes will do?

        • lanierland says:

          Actually, the most recent poll on this topic was published on 7/21 and showed Deal with a 49-43 lead over Barnes, Handel was within the margin of error.

      • James Fannin says:

        A basic tenet of the TEA Party movement is that America needs to send a message to Washington and not that Washington DC politicians need to send messages to us. When the TEA Party says “fire them all they’ve been in DC too long,” they are talking about guys like Deal who never tried to cut spending under Bush when Republicans were in the majority.

  3. Ambernappe says:

    On page 4, Sunday AJC, 5th column:
    Representative Deal has provided the most specific insight to his philosophy yet on legislators and and officials having business dealings with the state. “I think the main thing people want to know is that THINGS are open and transparent.” To which Karen Handel responded, “I take that to mean that you would not advocate having strong conflict-of-interest rules.”

    And Candidate Deal replied, “I NEVER HAD A CONTRACT WITH THE STATE. I NEVER HAD A NO-BID SITUATION. I HAD A COOPERATIVE RELATIONSHIP.” Unbelievable that these are the words of a former judge! This last line is the perfect basis for an entire campaign TV spot from Candidate Barnes.

  4. saltycracker says:

    Getting e-mail traffic from folks switching to Deal after a mailer they received from Handel camp where CREW named Deal one of the most corrupt. Then goes on to discredit CREW as a left leaning misguided org.
    Will negative attack help Handel or is there a backlash
    last minute Deal surge coming ?

    • polisavvy says:

      I think the negativity of both campaigns will have an impact on the voters. Some may make a decision to support one or the other. Some may decide that neither are worthy of their vote and support and just sit out the runoff. After a while, negativity becomes old and tiring to people — myself included. I’m ready for Wednesday to arrive when there won’t be one negative attack ad after another appearing on my television.

    • debbie0040 says:

      I have been contacted by many activists switching to karen because of the good ole boys in the legislature ganging up on Karen. they don’t want tought ethics reform – Karen does…

      Again, what do you think Barnes will do to Deal if he is the GOP nominee? Are you under the illusion Barnes will play nice?

    • polisavvy says:

      I thought that they said at yesterday morning’s debate, that it was the final one the two candidates would be having. You could probably find the replay of yesterday’s debate at WSB-TV.

    • Lady Thinker says:

      Yes, there was a debate on GPS at 7 pm for governor and 7:30 for attorney general put on by the Atlanta Press Club.

  5. Bens says:

    Mason-Dixon, 7/18:

    Handel: 29%
    Oxendine: 22%
    Deal: 20%
    Johnson: 13%
    Other: 3%
    Undecided: 13%

    Actual results:

    Handel: 34.1%
    Deal: 22.9%
    Johnson: 20.1%
    Oxendine: 17.0%
    Chapman: 3.0%
    McBerry: 2.5%
    Putnam: 0.4%

  6. Doug Grammer says:

    I’d like to see how this is weighted with Congressional Districts. They aren’t voting evenly so far.

    • polisavvy says:

      Would you please explain to me what you mean by this — “weighted with Congressional Districts” and how it plays into this? Thanks.

      • Doug Grammer says:

        In this poll “Quotas were assigned to reflect GOP primary voter turn-out by county.” That mean they are projecting how many people will vote from each county and making assumptions that they are right. Unless they are really good at that, the whole poll is meaningless. The margin of error could be much larger than stated.

        Polls are a snap shot in time as well. The information is almost bad 12 hours after the poll is over if people are still changing their minds.

        The IA poll didn’t discuss how it was conducted or weighted so I don’t know if I should believe it or not. When landmark put up their poll, they posted how large the sample size was from each congressional district. That’s the info I was looking for. I disagreed with some of their sample sizes, but hey; they are a political consulting company and I’m not. What do I know?

        There are 13 congressional districts. Opinions can vary by geographic region. Do you think every congressional district is voting at 7.75% of the total vote?

        Go back and look at the number of votes cast on July 20 on the congressional level…yes, there is a drop off between Gov. and congress, but I think the percentages could be similar to the actual vote on Tuesday. The Ninth had 78,532 votes. The Fifth had 14,695. The Fourth had 17,442. The Thirteenth had 24,601…and so on.

        It’s really hard to tell by what happened on July 20. Look at Bartow county for example. 28% Handel, to 22.5% Deal, and the remainder was split up. If the exact number who voted on July 20 voted again, can we really tell which way those remainder will be split? It’s not likely that they would go 50/50 to both remaining candidates. But it’s also not going to have 8,752 voters again. I think they would do well to hit 6,000. At this point, it’s a question of turnout…and it’s anyone’s game. I am predicting that the Ninth will have the largest percentage of the votes of all congressional districts…. again.

        Here are some links to make you think.

        http://www.ajc.com/news/20102010-gubernatorial-primary-results-574951.html

        http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2010_0720/swfed.htm

        http://georgiainfo.galileo.usg.edu/pdf/gacongress2006color.pdf

    • TPNoGa says:

      Doug,

      I swear I don’t mean this in any snarky way, but it is so obvious who you support. Which is fine, you should advocate for those you support. But pretending to be neutral and making the posts that you make, seems a little odd to me.

      You are a Deal supporter. Say it loud…..say it proud! Then….forget to vote…..Thanks. 🙂

      • polisavvy says:

        TPNoGa, do you know what Doug is talking about with the whole “weighted with Congressional Districts?” I’d really like to know about this if you have the information. Thanks in advance.

        • analogkid says:

          Poli:

          I think what he means is that turnout is expected to be larger in the 7th and the 9th, so he’d like to see if they weighted accordingly. Correct me if I’m wrong, DG.

          • polisavvy says:

            Thanks for taking a stab at it. If Doug reads this and sees where he can explain it further to both of us, I’m sure he’ll give it a try. Makes sense what you said!

  7. James Fannin says:

    For unexplained reasons, women tend to outperform their polls. Carly and Haley both performed significantly better than their polls suggested the days before the elections. My guess is Karen will be up by over 5 percent, more if enough undecideds watched tonight’s debate and saw the petulant, grouchy way Deal responded, particularly to the question about unity on Wednesday. Handel answered first and took the Ronald Reagan approach (not Nathan Deal’s favorite president since he never voted for him) assuring voters that she would get behind the nominee on Wednesday. Deal was clearly angry, responded without grace and reminded me more of Nixon (another Republican he never voted for) with his scowl. For a minute I thought Deal might even repeat Nixon’s most memorable line, “I am not a crook”

    • Lady Thinker says:

      I wonder if Deal will repeat Nixon’s “You won’t have Nixon to kick around anymore because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference” statement after losing to John Kennedy on Tuesday night. I wonder if Deal will congratulate Karen.

      • polisavvy says:

        He’ll congratulate her; but, it will be in very few words. I just somehow don’t think he would be a very gracious loser, JMMHO. There won’t be a kumbaya moment.

  8. MSBassSinger says:

    I believe Tuesday’s poll will have a Deal win – same in November.

    On Wednesday, some Handel supporters will claim Handel lost due to sexist bigotry, and that men are afraid of strong women.

    I guess that repulsion of strong women explains the success of Ann Coulter, Michelle Malkin, Michelle Bachmann, Laura Ingraham, Phyllis Schlafly, Margaret Thatcher, etc.

    • Lady Thinker says:

      Well, this is the south where there is a tradition, you know, the barefoot, pregnant, and a great cook sort of thing. I don’t think the women you mentioned are from the southern Bible belt.

    • Lady Thinker says:

      P.S. Will you support Karen against Barnes if she wins? As AK pointed out, if Barnes wins, he potentially has eight years in office.

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