Handel Leads In Landmark Poll, “Undecided” Leads In AG race With Olens Over Smith

Landmark Communications did a poll last evening of 800 Republican voters that they will release here at 4:30 (get your crosstabs, etc, there).

Here’s the summary:


Handel: 45.8
Deal: 37.1
Undecided: 17.1

Attorney General:

Undecided: 56.7
Olens: 33.0
Smith: 10.3

I’m told that, bucking “conventional wisdom”, there is no gender gap among the Governor’s candidates. I’m also told that Sam Olens wins the 6th CD, whereas Smith isn’t winning anywhere. Thus, Sam’s clout in Republican rich Cobb is noteworthy.


    • NoTeabagging says:

      I’m surprised they found 800 people that would answer them instead of using the magic words, “put me on your Do Not Call list.!”

  1. analogkid says:

    Whoa. Deal outperformed Handel in the 7th CD? So much for my theory that the runoff in the 7th would benefit Karen.

    Unfortunately for Deal, outside of the 7th and 9th, it’s not looking good.

    • justpeachy says:

      After attending the Gwinnett GOP forum last night I saw why…. People who love Hyce pretty can’t stand Handel. Those Barrow & Walton folks coming out of the woodworks. For people that are so far right you’d think they’d be a little more “Christ-like” They were HATEFUL to say the least of me wearing a Handel sticker to the forum. Basically sentanced me to hell. By default they’re voting Deal because of GRTL. I learned last night it’s a VERY closeminded group of folks voting for Hyce and Deal over in 7th.

        • justpeachy says:

          In looking further Fulton wasn’t polled much 7th & 9th took in over 12% of the poll leaving a large margin of error. I bet the #’s are actually higher for Handel. Further from 7th I wonder what parts were polled. Gwinnett is by far more in support for Handel (see July 20th results). Barrow & Walton bring out the Hyce Crazies which in turn bring in voters for Deal because GRTL told them Kraen is a baby killer.

  2. Harry says:

    Admittedly Deal is clearly more intelligent than Handel, with a more sympathetic persona; and Handel has issues with too quickly calling out her fellow GOP primary competitors as being crooks, people whose support she will need later if she is to win the election.

    Nonetheless, I am voting Handel because I think she will ruffle feathers and stir the fat down at that incestuous, insider club known as the General Assembly. She will demand more openness and less pay-for-play or play-for-pay. With this state and country undergoing slow-motion collapse the last thing we need is “business as usual” from our politicians. I think I will vote Hice in the Seventh for the same reason. If elected, I hope they will not disappoint.

    • jppaa says:

      I’m voting for Nathan Deal, but I can respect your reasoning and glad to see that you at least notice some of her flaws. That’s an objective take on Handel, something I’ve yet to see this site do.

    • B Balz says:

      Harry, I have to agree with your points. Either she will be a great reformer or be ineffective due to gridlock. To me, Rep. Deal may not be a great reformer, but he poses less gridlock risk.

      This is not a race between two lessors or the lesser of two evils. This is a race between two individuals, both with strengths and weaknesses, but both decent choices.

      And both can make a good fight in November.

      • ZazaPachulia says:

        Harry, I pretty much agree with your assessment. As much as I trash Handel on this site, I’ll probably vote for her in the runoff. However, if you substitute ‘Handel’ with ‘Barnes’ in the second paragraph (and change out the pronouns) the same pretty much rings true.

        And while Barnes has his blemishes, he also has a real resume, a documented record and a real education. He’s clearly the lesser of the evils this go around. I actually think it will better serve the state in the long run to have Barnes win in the fall…

      • debbie0040 says:

        Both Deal and Handel are conservatives and would do a good job.. Everyone of us has to decide which one we think stands the best shot of defeating King Roy in November. Too much is at stake with new Congressional lines being drawn under the next Governor.

        We also have to decide which management style we like best.
        It would be pretty funny to watch the legislators scramble for cover if Karen wins.

        BBalz, I agree with, “This is not a race between two lessors or the lesser of two evils. This is a race between two individuals, both with strengths and weaknesses, but both decent choices.”

        • Kimmie2shoes says:

          I agree that this is a race between two individuals, both with strengths and weaknesses, but both decent choices, however…I believe Handel’s support with Palin behind her will blow Deal and Newt out of the water. It will be interesting to see. And for those who say they “just won’t vote” in November because they don’t like either Handel or Deal? That’s cowardly. Get out there and VOTE. It’s not only your civic duty, but your Patriotic duty. Yes, this is my first post. No, it won’t be my last.

  3. I Am Jacks Post says:

    “My visit next Monday, after Sunday, will increase Mamma Handel Grizzly’s, that constitutional, electing day turnout by twenty hundred thousand.”

    -Sarah Palin

  4. AntebellumAyn says:

    If Ms. Handel wins the primary runoff, I think it will be with a record low turnout and in November she’ll turn the state map “blue”

  5. Factcheck says:

    Ha! Since when is Landmark Communications a creditable pollster? Since when are they a creditable anything? Really???? What a joke! Oh, wait, did they go to the Karen Handel School of Politics – oh no, wait…

    • NonPartisanGA says:

      Folks disputed polls showing Handel in the lead before the primary until the votes were cast at the polls. Now they say these polls are invalid too. No amount of analysis or posturing by pundits right or wrong will alter the outcome. The results of the primary ought to have been sobering about our opinion’s relevance to the masses of voters at large. (Factcheck…another new handle of a sock puppet?)

  6. Herb says:

    I see deal narrowly edging handel and losing badly to barnes. Face it, barnes has universal name rec/popularity around the state while the others have none whatsoever. It also helps to be in the same party as the uber popular and come 2012, 2 term president. Just sayin’…

    • polisavvy says:

      Do you really feel that way? Two terms? I kind of disagree with you about the two term thing. Unless things improve dramatically, I see one term with very low polling numbers upon his exit.

      • AubieTurtle says:

        Herb is just having fun getting people worked up. But it is too early to make predictions for 2012. Sure, we all can make predictions based on what we want to happen but there is plenty of time for things to get better or worse.

        • polisavvy says:

          Glad to hear he is just messing with us. I just want to survive the 2010 elections, then start worrying about 2012.

          • AubieTurtle says:

            What races are happening in 2011? I want to know which office Mary Norwood is going to screw up running for before I start popping the popcorn.

            Seriously though, perhaps 2011 will be a bit of rest time politically speaking before the hurricane of the 2012 elections sweep across the land.

            • polisavvy says:

              I sincerely hope there are none. Funny quip about Norwood, by the way. Actually, we’ll start the whole “who’s gonna run for President” stuff next year towards fall, won’t we? Of course, one hasn’t stopped running from the last election.

        • Herb says:

          Im not messing with you. This is real. The gop is irrelevant as a national party. 20 years of democratic rule here we come!

  7. Ambernappe says:

    As in many other “accidentals” in the language, this an exception. When referring to Mrs. Palin’s utterances, creditable is exactly correct. You will not find this rule in any manual, you must remember it. However, she makes more sense than many people with whom you may wish to compare her. Her strategery is masterful.

  8. Herb says:

    I see all statewide offices plus ga-sen, ga-1, 3, and 10, and the ga house going democratic in the democratic tidal wave in november.

    • polisavvy says:

      Do you have any extra drugs you’d like to share with the rest of us? You must be tripping.

  9. NonPartisanGA says:

    Too bad there is not a “member since” tag next to commenter’s name. It would make it much clearer which comments likely came from sock puppets and staff members of either camp. There are lots of new names from passionate folks that are likely on someone’s political payroll.

    • NoTeabagging says:

      Candidate volunteers and staffers don’t have interest in trolling the blogs. If they actually listened to us, we wouldn’t have these sham candidates ankle biting each other instead of reaching out to the citizens.

  10. B Balz says:

    I got into trouble claiming the polls were off prior to the Primary which is probably why I don’t gamble. Having said that, if the rumor that Senator Johnson just endorsed Rep. Nathan Deal is substantiated, I might go on a limb and dispute Mr. Rountree’s poll.

    @Herb Rep. Deal is going to give Roy a run for it. Ms. Handel would as well. The teachers are p0lling so low for Roy, he is not unbeatable by any stretch.

    • AubieTurtle says:

      Do you have polling for teachers? I’m curious because I wonder how many teachers in the state have moved here since Barnes left office. Also how many have been laid off, making issues like tenure moot.

      The teachers I know don’t have the slightest clue who Barnes is. Of course that might change when the election gets closer and their more senior teachers tell them about what it was that made them hate Barnes so much. It’s going to be an interesting factor in the race and quite possibly impossible to predict.

  11. slyram says:

    I just spent 10 minutes of my life on a phone poll clearly designed for 2nd CD voters; maybe it is what’s termed a push poll. Of course, questions about various elections are mixed in and the guy said,” In the November governor election, will you be voting for Roy Barnes, Larry Monds, or Karen Handel.” I ask about Nathan Deal and the caller basically said he has no idea about that and his jobs is to read the information on the computer.

  12. ricstewart says:

    Interestingly, Nathan Deal wins the age 18-35 vote 45%-34%.
    I would imagine that’s because the over-35 crowd makes up more of the tax base. Since Karen is fiscally conservative and Nathan Deal has drastically increased spending and debt, it only makes sense that the tax base prefers Karen Handel, who has spent their money more wisely.

  13. NonPartisanGA says:

    Nathan Deal did not refute Handel’s assertion that he does not support school vouchers in last night’s debate. What’s the story on that? Does anyone know why he’d be against vouchers except maybe he too is pandering to the teachers unions like Barnes?

      • AubieTurtle says:

        You could spend all day posting that to the AJC political blogs (and many of the non-political ones as well) and not make a dent in the number of people who insist that Georgia does have a teachers’ union. It’s one of those things that most people seem to “know” is true like they use to know that headaches are cured by drilling holes in a person’s head to let the trapped demons escape.

        Sometimes though, these things do die out. Since Arthur Laffer stated that we’re on the left side of the Laffer Curve and could raise tax rates quite a bit before revenue would decline, that whole meme has pretty much died. Quite surprising given just how popular it was for so long. It was almost thought of as Reagan’s Twelfth Commandment. Maybe the “fair” tax took its place.

        • B Balz says:

          This doesn’t work:

          “…use to know that headaches are cured by drilling holes in a person’s head to let the trapped demons escape….” NUTS.

      • NonPartisanGA says:

        I stand corrected Icarus. Your thoughts on my comment sans the union tag:

        Nathan Deal did not refute Handel’s assertion that he does not support school vouchers in last night’s debate. What’s the story on that? Does anyone know why he’d be against vouchers except maybe he too is pandering to the teachers like Barnes?

    • Provocateur says:

      “Golly, Wally…I thought Karen said Eric was corrupt. Why is she stealing his idea of school vouchers being a good idea now?”

      “Gee, Beav, I dunno. Guess when you’re a piece of Maryland white trash, you can say pretty much anything you want to.”

      “Oh…okay, Wally….sayyyy, do you think Karen is related to Eddie Haskell? She reminds me of just how conniving and sleazy he is.”

      “I dunno, Beaver…one would have thought there’s only one Eddie Haskell. But, of course, he had to have come from somewhere….”

      • bowersville says:

        To: Handel Bashers

        From: Peanut Gallery

        RE: Unsubstantiated Handel Bashing

        It doesn’t work.

        • Provocateur says:

          Here’s a question: If Handel is leading by so much…and so great a margin….why are the Handel supporters becoming more rabid when someone breaks from the pack (like Maurice Atkinson), and they go bonkers on the social media sites?

          Something’s just not in synch here between “poll results” and Handel supporters, or Handel herself during that Sunday night debate.

  14. Three Jack says:

    as more georgia legislators endorse deal, i become more certain of my support for karen handel. these ‘values based’ republicans overlook obvious ethical transgressions in supporting the disgraced former congressman because a woman threatens their inner sanctum of habitual lying, deceit and overall corruption.

    i look forward to voting for karen handel because she will shake things up….and hopefully one of her first acts will be to end deal’s cushy inspection contract while a full investigation into how he got it takes place.

    • Provocateur says:

      “and hopefully one of her first acts will be to end deal’s cushy inspection contract while a full investigation into how he got it takes place.”

      That’ll certainly be productive. And get us right on the track to improving our state’s financial health and create thousands of jobs.

      • Doug Grammer says:

        If he were still doing that….I thought this was supposed to be a forum for informed voters? Three jack I would expect this from, Provocateur, not so much. Then again, maybe you do know and are just pointing out how illogical Three jack’s thinking is.

        • B Balz says:

          Methinks that folks are getting edgy, punchy, and weary.

          After all, you were called childish names last week. BTW, you ‘handeled’ those inane words with restraint and Dale Carnegie-esque dignity. Trying to ‘refudiate’ all this negative nonsense is like swatting flies in an outhouse, it may be fun for a bit, but it is stinky work.

        • Three Jack says:

          dg, you are the very essence of an arrogant, pompous, know nothing republican. unethical state legislators endorsing an unethical former federal legislator so that they can continue prospering from their unethical activities is what will eventually lead to dems re-taking power in georgia…it happened on the federal level and will inevitably happen in georgia if deal somehow becomes governor.

          wake up doug, your old fart gop is dead…karen handel will be the leader of a younger, ethical, more dynamic fiscally conservative movement in georgia…get used to it.

          • Doug Grammer says:

            Three jack,

            Am I arrogant because I did my homework, knew something you didn’t, and called you out on your facts? Some people don’t respond well when you point out that their posts are full of BS. You like to attack the messenger but can’t own up to the truth that you didn’t know that the contract is no longer in place.

            You need to be consistent in your message. I don’t mean the use of the word “unethical” in a run on sentence describing three different subjects. You need to pick a position, because you have given us two: Either Sec. Handel will be or our Governor as you state, or Congressman Deal has a chance of getting nominated. You described his possible nomination with the word “if,” meaning that it’s not 100% done that Sec. Handel will be our Governor. Make up your mind.

            BTW, In the past two days or so, I know I have defended Congressman Deal in areas I think he has been unfairly attacked (and he was undefended.) I also looked for areas where Sec. Handel was unfairly attacked and was undefended so I could speak up on her behalf. I didn’t see any. I will be fine if Sec. Handel gets the nomination and will do everything I can to help her win in November. That’s doesn’t mean I will sit by for the next week and watch others talk unfounded trash with bad facts, spin and innuendo….. about either candidate.

            • B Balz says:

              I am considering changing my handle to “Fartface” to honor the fallen concept of intelligent discourse, unless you want it?

            • Three Jack says:

              dg, wtf are you talking about? i didn’t even mention the contract in my post. your rant is as irrelevant as the endoresements pouring out of a corrupt legislative body wishing to continue it’s well funded party…yee effn haw!

              get a clue dg..defending deal will only lead to the demise of the party that requires a pledge of allegiance because it is so insecure as to require such a pledge.

              • Doug Grammer says:

                “end deal’s cushy inspection contract”

                If you can’t remember what you wrote 2 to 3 days ago, don’t blame me. If you look up about 10 posts, you might remember what you typed and YOU can get a clue.

          • GOPwits says:

            Three Jack you are correct. If the GOP keeps up it’s current behavior, we might as well just pack it up and call it a day.

            I said it on another thread and I’ll say it again, we’re really going to have to talk about what it means to be a conservative if it now includes corruption, getting rich off of government, doing secret business with the government, and tolerating those under a federal grand jury investigation. I mean, even Tom DeLay resigned from Congress and his was only a state grand jury… And we know how all that corruption affected Congress in ’06…

            • Doug Grammer says:

              I love how you ignore I proved it was obvious he couldn’t remember what he posted. I guess two people who don’t know what they are talking about, or have trouble with facts, band together.
              I could go down the line with all the innuendo you just posted, but you’d have to look up the word innuendo.

              • GOPwits says:

                You should really see someone about your blind allegiance to Nathan Deal’s corruption. It sound like a very serious problem.

                • Doug Grammer says:

                  If I am pointing out that you are wrong on facts, that doesn’t mean I support anyone or anything other than the truth. You seem to think it’s OK to lie to support your candidates. I don’t.

  15. debbie0040 says:

    “as more georgia legislators endorse deal, i become more certain of my support for karen handel.”

    In this political climate, that hurts a candidate more than it helps . Because of the way the legislature basically “stuck together” and endorsed Deal, it made Deal the establishment/incumbent candidate that is supported by the good ole boy system. Clay Cox made the same mistake in the District 7 race and the voters rebelled because he began to be seen as the establishment/incumbent candidate. I have spoken with people that were on the fence and decided to support Karen because of that..The appearance is that the good ole boys are fighting to protect their broken system from a candidate that will come in and shake things up..

  16. Doug Grammer says:

    I think this poll is probably fairly accurate. However, a week can be an eternity in politics.

  17. Doug Deal says:

    The overall statewide poll may be accurate, but it is nearly impossible to model turnout in a runoff, so I seriously doubt any of the numbers.

    The CD breakdowns, however are a joke. If Landmark conducted a perfectly run poll, the margin of error based on pure randomness in the 7th (the largest reporting) would be about 9.5%. That means it is uncertain if the two candidates are tied even with a margin as high as 19% between then. Thus, it could not even be used to predict the winner of an average sized blowout.

    The other CD’s are worse. In the 4th, with a sample size of 21, the MOE is 21%. A reported result of 70-30 would have a chance of being 49-51 and still be considered inside the MOE.

    Serious pollsters would not break down this insignificatly small data with three units of percision. Making such a claim, one wonders how well the rest of the methodology was performed.

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