Call it a prediction or whatever you want to call it. But you read it here first: Roy Barnes will lose the General Election, and it won’t even be close.
Yes, he’s probably the candidate best equipped to take on any Republican challenger. Yes, he has a massive war chest and doesn’t have to dip into it for a costly run-off. Yes, he polls higher than both of the potential Republican candidates. Yes GOP voters are fed-up with the state’s elected leadership. Yes, he’s actually talking about issues (budget, education, jobs) as opposed to how much he hates/loves gay people. Yes, there may even be some protest voters who cross over to vote for him or John Monds over the GOP nominee.
It doesn’t matter. None of it matters. Roy Barnes has two words working against him: Barack Obama.
Like it or not, the 2010 election is a referendum on the first two years of Barack Obama. And even though Roy Barnes and Georgia have nothing to do Obama and Washington, simply being in the same party as The Chosen One will be enough to prevent him from coming close. Somehow, someway, whoever the GOP nominee is will find the means to tie Roy Barnes to Obama’s policies. And that will be enough.
I firmly believe that the Obama backlash in this country and this state is going to be even worse than pundits predict. And I honestly think it’s going to hurt all down-ballot Democrats. But then again, I’ve been wrong before. (And I’m about to get called out on that one)
On a separate note, please feel free to use this as an open thread to discuss something we typically don’t get into around here: National Politics
[Update] Hat tip to Doug Grammer, who directed us to these more recent polls which actually show Barnes losing to both Deal and Handel.