Magellan’s final survey

July 19, 2010 15:50 pm

by Jason · 64 comments

Magellan Strategies, the first polling firm to show Karen Handel with a lead, is out with their final survey before tomorrow’s primary (the only poll that matters).

  • Handel: 38%
  • Deal: 20%
  • Johnson: 17%
  • Oxendine: 12%
  • Other: 6%
  • Undecided: 7%

{ 64 comments }

zigmaster July 19, 2010 at 4:02 pm

If Handel is over 35% she’ll be tought to beat in 20 days. Eric Johnson would have a better chance than Deal. Time for the Oxendine, Chapman, and McBerry supporters to roll into Johnson!

ACCmoderate July 19, 2010 at 4:21 pm

McBerry would only support Johnson if he were a teenage girl.

KingWulfgar July 19, 2010 at 5:48 pm

It’s really not funny anymore. Especially since it was such a stretch to get there from what zig actually said.

SFCWallace July 19, 2010 at 7:40 pm

I laughed…

Ambernappe July 19, 2010 at 8:15 pm

Time for Mr. Mc Berry to graciously drop out.

Pine Knot July 19, 2010 at 8:16 pm

Another joke? He should have done that long ago, and we all know he is bull headed, and isn’t going anywhere.

justpeachy July 20, 2010 at 8:52 am

But if he dropped out he wouldn’t be getting that paycheck he’s getting from Oxendine to stay in the race so Handel doesn’t appear on stage for debates.

sofnbc July 20, 2010 at 9:35 am

+ 1 and an empty podium

Ambernappe July 19, 2010 at 8:13 pm

“tough”

Biased July 19, 2010 at 4:03 pm

Thank goodness oxenswine is hopefully dead. Congrats to Karen on clearly making it into the runoff, now this sock puppet just has to hope that the right man makes it into 2nd place.

NoTeabagging July 19, 2010 at 5:38 pm

Handel in the lead? Pearls before oxenswine?

Pine Knot July 19, 2010 at 4:12 pm

Handel/Deall. I think this poll has inflated her lead too much the last couple of times.

KingWulfgar July 19, 2010 at 4:13 pm

Any poll that has Handel at nearly 40% disqualifies itself.

David Staples July 19, 2010 at 4:13 pm

Damn. This means at least another month of HandelPundit.

Lady Thinker July 19, 2010 at 8:13 pm

Or four months!

ZazaPachulia July 19, 2010 at 9:17 pm

Don’t count on it lasting any longer than that…

Lady Thinker July 19, 2010 at 10:03 pm

I won’t need to when Karen wins in November.

Landon Harper July 20, 2010 at 7:10 am

YEAH!!!

John Konop July 19, 2010 at 4:21 pm

I still think OX will slip in via early voting and the poll over estimating the OX slid. If he does not this would be a historic collapse.

I will give Icarus credit he predicted early and often that OX would slid hard. And I always thought it would be a Karen vs. OX run-off.

Biased July 19, 2010 at 4:40 pm

Ox’s high numbers were always very soft and based primarily on name recognition, which I doubt translated to real votes as often as the other candidates. He probably won’t be as low as these polls predict, but I doubt it’ll be much higher

Lady Thinker July 19, 2010 at 8:14 pm

John,

I would still like to see a Handel/Ox because then Karen will surely win!

AlanR July 19, 2010 at 11:39 pm

I was wondering about the effect of early voting — a lot of votes were cast before the Oxendine disaster had a chance to sink in. Also, the congressional race in the 9th isn’t creating the interest some thought it would early on. I wonder if that will affect voter turnout in Deal’s base? And will that matter?

Just wondering.

Doug Grammer July 20, 2010 at 11:18 am

It seems to be low voter turn out all over the state. In early voting, the Ninth had the most votes by congressional district.

David Staples July 19, 2010 at 5:04 pm

Wonder who Ray Boyd will support when Chapman loses tomorrow?

fultonrighty July 19, 2010 at 5:05 pm

Oxendine–dropping like a rock! Whew!
Go Johnson!

Lifetime367 July 19, 2010 at 5:24 pm

it scares me to think that Sarah Palin has had this much impact on our election

Jeremy Jones July 19, 2010 at 5:53 pm
Muselaw July 19, 2010 at 6:58 pm

+ another 1

I Am Jacks Post July 19, 2010 at 7:06 pm

Handel’s bounce/surge/whatever is a direct result of Palin’s endorsement. Handel can’t “refudiate” that.

Doug Grammer July 19, 2010 at 6:05 pm

I don’t see any candidate in the GOP primary for Gov. breaking 30%

AthensRepublican July 19, 2010 at 7:39 pm

That would make for a very exciting election night. Maybe we would not know who was in the run-off until Wednesday.

AlanR July 19, 2010 at 11:40 pm

Oh, no . . .

American Delight July 19, 2010 at 6:16 pm

Just got an automated call from Georgia Right to Life warning against voting for Karen Handel. Kudos, GRTL. It’s one thing to have a mushy lifer in a lesser office like SOS, but when it comes to governor, we need a pro-life leader.

tonycatch22 July 19, 2010 at 6:38 pm

There are more pressing issues than that.

I Am Jacks Post July 19, 2010 at 7:04 pm

True. Like honesty.

AnyoneElse2010 July 19, 2010 at 7:20 pm

Maybe to you Tony. There are more important issues to me. But who are you to tell someone where their important issues should lie?

justpeachy July 20, 2010 at 9:11 am

GRTL is as crooked as they come. Dan Becker is just freaking out that the one candidate he didn’t endorse is probably going to make it so now he’s pulling out all the stops to not get her elected. Karen is Pro-Life, she just refused to sign that paper because of the conditions she believes & I agree (when mothers life is in danger, or in case of rape). Seriously imagine your 13 yeard old daughter gets raped (heaven forbid) I don’t think any of us know how we would react but one thing is for sure legislation shouldn’t stand in the way; the family should be able to determine what is best. Some families have a strong support system and the girl would be fine to have the baby and put it up for adoption. Others not so much or may not mentally & emotionally be able to handle it. A study shows 6% of raped women attempt suicide. I’m not even saying I would abord if I were raped but I’m saying it should not be legislation but left to the family to work out what is best for the person.

AthensRepublican July 19, 2010 at 7:41 pm

GRTL lost all credibility with me many years ago. Just so happens that I am not voting for Karen Handel (not that I might not later)but I could care less who GRTL endorses.

Lady Thinker July 19, 2010 at 8:19 pm

Athens,

While I wish you were voting for Karen in the Primary, I respect your wishes. I agree with your post though, GRTL has no power to influence me.

AnyoneElse2010 July 19, 2010 at 7:21 pm

Does anyone thing that if Karen Handel gets in a runoff that Deal’s, Johnson’s, Ox’s, or even McBerry’s supporters will go to her? She has really shot herself in the foot for a runoff election.

Pine Knot July 19, 2010 at 7:34 pm

Not many will. Unless she is in it against the OX. Then some more will go to her, although I doubt the losers will support Karen strongly.

NonPartisanGA July 19, 2010 at 7:41 pm

So what you’re saying is they’ll take their ball and go home. That same lack of big picture perspective which propelled Obama to the White House will guarantee King Roy will return to the West Paces Mansion.

Pine Knot July 19, 2010 at 7:46 pm

No. I’m not saying that I would do that or others would. I’m saying she has upset some people in all of this. I was giving my thoughts on the question from AE. I think you are referring to the general. In the general whether the nominee be Deal, Handel, or Johnson, I would support the nominee, and hope that everyone else would. As a party, petty things can’t let us lose an election to King Roy, especially with redistricting coming.

justpeachy July 20, 2010 at 9:59 am

How? She hasn’t run bad ads… her’s are true. Eric Johnson even asked her to pull her ad and her response was, “if you can tell me one false in the ad then yes I will.” Eric was give the chance to rebutle and he didn’t. She hasn’t made nasty phone calls, she hasn’t sent bad mailers, and she doesn’t have websites dedicated to destroy her opponents. Are you sure Karen is the one that shot herself in the foot? Ox & Deal have killed themselves. Both Ox & Deal were stupid to go after Karen strategically they should have gone after one another since the #’s kept growing in Karens favor.

Gary Cooper July 20, 2010 at 1:14 pm

No I don’t think they will. Also runoffs are such a touchy subject. Traditionally not many voters turn out for the runoff and a lot of voters prefer one candidate and if that candidate is not on the ballot, they stay at home.

It will be interesting to see what happens and if any supporters for the candidates that miss out come out in large numbers to vote against one of the remaining two.

Pine Knot July 19, 2010 at 7:33 pm

All these polls were done before Nathan’s statewide tour today btw.

Romegaguy July 19, 2010 at 8:19 pm

Well that changes everything….

Pine Knot July 19, 2010 at 8:18 pm

Tommorow night will be very quiet on PP. Most of the posters on here will be at Handel’s election event.

Lady Thinker July 19, 2010 at 8:21 pm

I hope so, I will be at Karen’s victory party.

Pine Knot July 19, 2010 at 8:39 pm

I’ll probably be at Nathan’s victory party. Although an hour drive might stretch it since all will be so close. We will not know much until 10 or 11.

tonycatch22 July 19, 2010 at 8:44 pm

Mcberry’s victory party is @ 3pm, right after camp lets out

Ambernappe July 19, 2010 at 9:57 pm

LT, “Celebrating” Karen Handel’s victory!

See you there………….

True Grit July 19, 2010 at 9:07 pm

Ox takes 30+ …Count on it.

True Grit July 19, 2010 at 9:13 pm

Magellan has lost his way around 285. This ends in an Ox-Handel runoff.

Tinkerhell July 20, 2010 at 8:38 am

This is where my money is also.
I voted for Johnson but I don’t expect he’ll make it into a runoff.

I’m expecting to vote for Karen twice before we have a new Gubner, and then I’m expecting her to be it.

Lady Thinker July 23, 2010 at 11:59 pm

You are a good person.

ZazaPachulia July 19, 2010 at 9:18 pm

I thought Magellan got killed in the Philippines…

Three Jack July 19, 2010 at 9:49 pm

to all my former fb friends who de-friended me for supporting karen handel (and you know who you are), how’s it feel to see your boy ox fading just as i said he would when the truth came out? the really cool thing about this election is that we will never ever have to deal with ox as a political candidate again…thanks for playing johnny boy.

Ambernappe July 19, 2010 at 9:55 pm

And we have not seen the end of The Ox in the news.

Lady Thinker July 19, 2010 at 10:03 pm

So true Three Jack.

WCHeadhunter July 20, 2010 at 8:56 am

Anybody else a little disappointed with how few people were in line this morning? I got there at 6:53am expecting to be in a long line but I was only the fifth person there. I’m pretty sure I haven’t missed a vote in 15 years and this was unprecedented in my experience over at the Walnut Grove precinct.

Bucky Plyler July 20, 2010 at 9:26 am

Magellan sailed off the end of the earth….

B Balz July 20, 2010 at 10:08 am

Magellan is what my wife calls me when I don’t stop to ask directions….

Doug Grammer July 24, 2010 at 8:53 am

They got the order right, but were just a tad outside of the margin of error. They almost covered themselves with 7% undecided.

Karen Handel 231,867 34.1%
Nathan Deal 155,892 22.9%
Eric Johnson 136,748 20.1%
John W. Oxendine 115,365 17.0%
Jeff Chapman 20,622 3.0%
Ray McBerry 17,169 2.5%
Otis Putnam 2,545 0.4%

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