Insider Advantage Poll Teaser.

I’m told a new poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage will be released tonight at 6 PM on WSBTV. It will show Karen Handel in the lead and John Oxendine in third place. The poll was conducted last night so the results are fresh.

While you debate the accuracy of this poll, I’ll ask you to remember that IA predicted Huckabee would win Georgia, and was correct to within a tenth of a point in predicting that Kasim Reed would win the ATL Mayor’s race last year.

Discuss.

46 comments

  1. I hope that Johnson gets second in this poll. Realistically, it’ll be Deal. But I’m being an optimist today. I stand by my statement that it will be an EJ/Handel runoff.

    • Biased says:

      Question is whether money and a positive message outweigh name recognition. Karen’s in for sure, Ox seems to be a sinking ship. Deal’s remained relatively stagnant while Johnson’s been climbing slowly. It’ll be close, my bet is that the second place candidate in this race will have between 23-26% of the vote.

    • fishtail says:

      Handel Surges Ahead in Georgia GOP Race for Governor
      (7/15/10) Karen Handel leads the Republican race for the gubernatorial nomination, leaving Nathan Deal, John Oxendine and Eric Johnson battling for a berth with her in the runoff, a new InsiderAdvantage/WSB-TV poll shows.

      The poll was conducted July 14 among 728 registered voters who said they would or have voted in the Republican primary in Georgia. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, and the poll was weighted for age, race and gender.

      The results:

      Karen Handel, 24.4%
      Nathan Deal, 16.1%
      John Oxendine, 14.9%
      Eric Johnson, 12.6%
      Jeff Chapman, 5.8%
      Ray McBerry, 2.8%
      Otis Putnam, 1.4%
      Undecided, 22%

      InsiderAdvantage CEO and political analyst Matt Towery:

      “This survey was conducted after Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Handel and I believe the impact can be found in looking at the cross-tabulations with regard to the male- female vote. For the first time in the many times we’ve polled this race, she has more female support than male support. She had been lagging among females. As to the other candidates, it is literally a toss of the coin as to whether Deal, Oxendine or Johnson makes the runoff. Deal is continuing to hold his consistently solid base, which gives him 16 percent of the vote. Oxendine remains more than viable, tied with Deal and Johnson within the poll’s margin of error. Johnson appears to have made the most significant gain among the men, rising to 13 percent.
      “The next three days will decide this race, but it is my guess that Handel will likely have a spot in the runoff, barring some major shift in the trends.”

      Click here for the crosstabs,

      Among the other polls released today:

      * A Mason-Dixon poll conducted for the AJC and a consortium of other Georgia newspapers over a six-day period (July 8 – 13) showed John Oxendine leading on the Republican side with 31 percent of the vote, followed by Karen Handel at 23 percent and Nathan Deal at 18 percent. That poll was conducted among 400 likely Republican primary voters and had a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

      * The Rasmussen poll found Handel and Deal tied for the lead at 25 percent each with Oxendine third at 20 percent. That poll included results from 943 likely Republican primary voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. It was conducted on July 13.

  2. polisavvy says:

    At least that poll is more in line with Rasmussen, instead of Magellan (which seemed way off the mark). I’ll be watching at 6:00. Thanks for the heads up.

    • Ambernappe says:

      Hi Polisavvy,
      I am watching also.
      May be deleted for this, but hope to see you at Street/Grace.
      Buzz B. is the contact.

      • Ambernappe says:

        Just watched WSB, and Karen Handel is not diminished in any way. The OX is not worthy of our consideration.

      • polisavvy says:

        If you are talking about election night, I’ll be at Austin Scott’s election soiree.

  3. As a political observer, it’s the one I look forward to seeing most, not necessarily for its acuracy on final numbers… but they’ve polled this race the most and therefore, should be able to show accurate trends.

  4. zigmaster says:

    It’ll look something close to this:

    Karen Handel, 24.4%
    Nathan Deal, 16.1%
    John Oxendine, 14.9%
    Eric Johnson, 12.6%

    • polisavvy says:

      I wonder who the defeated candidates and their base are going to end up supporting in a runoff? Any idea? Just curious.

        • polisavvy says:

          That was quite funny, zigmaster. I think that Handel has offended the supporters of Deal, Johnson, and Oxendine with her “lipstick” ad. Some of them will most definitely not go her way. Plus, let’s not forget about the undecideds. They alone can be game changers for any of the candidates (provided they get off their rears and vote).

          • fishtail says:

            Ziggy…these poll numbers were supposed to be embargoed until 6 PM. How did you get them?

      • Provocateur says:

        Very few will roll into Handel’s camp. Little girls who tell lies cannot be tolerated in this party.

    • zigmaster says:

      Here’s the rest:

      Karen Handel, 24.4%
      Nathan Deal, 16.1%
      John Oxendine, 14.9%
      Eric Johnson, 12.6%
      Jeff Chapman, 5.8%
      Ray McBerry, 2.8%
      Otis Putnam, 1.4%
      Undecided, 22%

      • polisavvy says:

        I still say that “undecideds” could change these percentages tremendously, if they get off their duffs and vote. 22% is a fairly significant number.

        • LoyaltyIsMyHonor says:

          So many undecideds so late in the season. I don’t mean just Zingmeisters, but with every poll. Regardless, it’s still a tossup.

        • TPNoGa says:

          I bet a majority of undecideds just skip the primary. If you don’t have strong feelings about who you want (or don’t want) as Governor by now, why vote?

      • Gonzo ATL Guy says:

        It looks like the Reps have looked around and realized anyone-but-Ox-or-Barnes will win in Nov. It looks like the Dems still don’t get it.

        Then again, that pretty much sums up the two parties. The Reps have a knack for doing what they think people want. More often than not, because they pander to the right, they come across looking pretty silly. (Witness their previous pandering to the religious right and now the TEA Party movement.) Dems have a knack for thinking they know what’s best for people. Nobody likes condescention. (Witness their insistence that the AZ provisions on illegal immigration enforcement are unjust, despite the majority of people wanting them. Witness the entire King Roy debacle that ended eight years ago.)

        As much as I dislike both parties, it looks like the Reps will get their nomination (anyone-but-Barnes) right while the Dems will nominate someone who is already disliked by the majority of voters.

  5. bwjohnson83 says:

    I’d don’t know whether to be surprised or not by the percentage of undecided voters.

    With the % of the past undecided voters………I’ll bet it’s close to 25% as well.

    They will be the ones to official decided this thing. I won’t be surprised if it’s a toss up on election day.

    Let’s see if the big boys make any moves!! I think it’ll end up very flat with several in the area of 25%.

        • TalmadgeGhost says:

          Once again, don’t you dare question Matt Towery. Those Cheetah girls at Daufuskie Island fondly remember his polling prowess….

          and somewhere in a Middle Georgia jail, Robin Williams just chuckled.

          McBerry is still upset that he isn’t polling into the teens yet. That’s really all he’s ever wanted out of this.

  6. ACCmoderate says:

    This just in… new poll coming out Tuesday. Claims to be the final authority on who wins the race.

  7. Anonymole says:

    What is the process in a disputed election for SECOND place in a primary? How quickly could a recount be completed?

    • Holly says:

      From what I remember from 2006, if the race is within 1%, the candidates have two days to file a request for a recount. I think it has to be completed within a week.

      I’m winging it, but I think I’m right.

      • Holly says:

        Yep, from the O.C.G.A § 21-2-495:

        Whenever the difference between the number of votes received by a candidate who has been declared nominated for an office in a primary election or who has been declared elected to an office in an election or who has been declared eligible for a run-off primary or election and the number of votes received by any other candidate or candidates not declared so nominated or elected or eligible for a runoff shall be not more than 1 percent of the total votes which were cast for such office therein, any such candidate or candidates receiving a sufficient number of votes so that the difference between his or her vote and that of a candidate declared nominated, elected, or eligible for a runoff is not more than 1 percent of the total votes cast, within a period of two business days following the certification of the election results, shall have the right to a recount of the votes cast, if such request is made in writing by the losing candidate. If the office sought is a federal or state office voted upon by the electors of more than one county, the request shall be made to the Secretary of State who shall direct that the recount be performed in all counties in which electors voted for such office and notify the superintendents of the several counties involved of the request. In all other cases, the request shall be made to the superintendent. The superintendent or superintendents shall order a recount of such votes to be made immediately. If, upon such recount, it is determined that the original count was incorrect, the returns and all papers prepared by the superintendent, the superintendents, or the Secretary of State shall be corrected accordingly and the results recertified.

        And O.C.G.A. § 21-2-493:

        Such returns shall be certified by the superintendent not later than 5:00 P.M. on the seventh day following the date on which such election was held and such returns shall be immediately transmitted to the Secretary of State.

  8. Tireless says:

    I hear the WSB poll is coming out soon. I’ll be interested in its findings. All of the players are shifting positions IMHO.

  9. Andre says:

    Here’s the long-awaited poll:

    The poll was conducted July 14 among 728 registered voters who said they would or have voted in the Republican primary in Georgia. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, and the poll was weighted for age, race and gender.

    The results:

    Karen Handel, 24%
    Nathan Deal, 16%
    John Oxendine, 15%
    Eric Johnson, 13%
    Jeff Chapman, 6%
    Ray McBerry, 3%
    Otis Putnam, 1%
    Undecided, 22%

    • Provocateur says:

      Poll results depend on what the question is, where it appears in the order of questions, how the question is worded, and how the question is asked.

  10. Goldwater Conservative says:

    IA is amongst the 5 least accurate polling companies in the country. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut on occasion.

Comments are closed.