Georgia newspapers poll primaries for Governor

There is a new poll out today from Mason-Dixon, sponsored by several Georgia newspapers, in both the Republican and Democratic primaries for Governor.

Here is a look at the GOP:

  • Oxendine: 31%
  • Handel: 23%
  • Deal: 18%
  • Johnson: 6%
  • McBerry: 2%
  • Chapman: 1%
  • Undecided: 19%

Over in the Democratic field:

  • Barnes: 54%
  • Baker: 20%
  • Poythress: 7%
  • Porter: 3%
  • Camon: 0%
  • Undecided: 16%

The poll also has a look at the runoff:

The results also show Oxendine dominating any runoff for the Republican nomination. Handel gives him the closest challenge, where Oxendine wins 39 percent to 33 percent. Oxendine bests Deal 46 percent to 31 percent and Johnson 42 percent to 24 percent.

And general election match-ups:

The poll found Barnes and Oxendine are tied at 42 percent, with 16 percent undecided, while Barnes tops Handel 45 percent to 34 percent and beats Deal 46 percent to 28 percent. Johnson gets 29 percent to Barnes’ 47 percent.

Thoughts?

91 comments

  1. KingWulfgar says:

    If 31% of Republicans are still willing to vote for Oxendine, there’s probably little hope for the Republican party in GA.

    I have a feeling that these poll numbers will be very close to what we see next Tuesday. Not that I hope they will, just that they will.

    • Ramblinwreck says:

      I agree with this 100% but not just because of support for the Ox. The Republican faithful have spent decades having to overlook or make excuses for bad candidates that they’re too heavily invested in the “he’s a lying weasel but he’s our lying weasel” theory of politics to make a significant change now. They’ve bought in to the cult of the political personality and character no longer plays a major role in their decision making.

      The Democrats of course are no different. They just got to this point over a decade sooner.

      • B Balz says:

        If you are correct, and very well could be, then there will be minimal crossover in November.

        Once again, the ‘squishy middle’ and not the tail ends of the Bell Curve will decide, as it was intended.

  2. debbie0040 says:

    If I am not mistaken in 2002, the same poll showed Barnes defeating Perdue by 17%. The only poll that I thinkhas been proven reliable is the Rasmussen poll and I am not sure if he will release an updated one before the primary.

    • MouthoftheSouth says:

      The Rasmussen polling has been widely panned this cycle. I was just having this conversation about the Rasmussen polls with Debbies0001-0039, why weren’t you there?

  3. John Konop says:

    Logically if you look at both polls Karen Handel is surging while OX is at best steady and or sinking. That is why I think Karen and OX will be within 5 points of each other and be in the run-off.

    The real question will OX sink enough for Johnson or Deal to get in the run-off?

    • B Balz says:

      Actually John, I think the real question is how much GOP crossover will benefit Roy in November. I am sure some here would rather consider chewing off their left arm than pulling the lever for a Dem, this writer included, and will still not vote for Mr. Oxendine.

      Another question is how in the world did the GOP manage to find itself in this position?

      • Three Jack says:

        actually bbalz i think the real question is how many dems will crossover in the primary to vote for ox. barnes is polling above 50% so that opens the door to dems voting gop to get the sleaziest candidate possible against roy.

        • B Balz says:

          Goods points as well. Are there polls that track crossover? I guess that would be post election, but curious?

          • KingWulfgar says:

            I agree with this 100%. I won’t be one of those voters, though. John Monds is looking pretty good if you’re one of those that would “rather consider chewing off their left arm than pulling the lever for a Dem.” 🙂

          • benevolus says:

            Georgie really would become an attractive state for business then… as long as Gov. Oxendine made a profit!

      • John Konop says:

        B Balz,

        I got this e-mail and this is a classic example how slimy the campaigns have gotten. I think the press has done a poor job of calling out the BS.

        We have unemployment out of control, tax revenue in the dumper, drop-out rate at close to 50% if you use the real numbers…..and all we get is BS made-up issues!

        ….Ox’s attack is flat wrong. The budget he points to in his ad was in January of 2004. Karen had just been in office for two months and had a $100 million deficit. The proposal presented was to raise taxes to cover it. Karen pushed through budget cuts and balanced the budget without raising taxes. In the very article that Oxendine uses in his ad, Karen is quoted saying we must reduce the budget.

        Karen did not support money to an abortion provider or Planned Parenthood.

        The federal government passed money down to the state, which then passed it down to Fulton County. The money was for screening for sexually transmitted diseases and breast cancer. The money was prohibited by law from being used for anything relating to abortions. Planned Parenthood was the only bidder for the funds, and Karen was powerless to stop it. It could have been stopped at the state level, and as Governor Karen will prevent these types of pass through funding……

          • KingWulfgar says:

            Agreed. I don’t see why voting “YES” was her only option. Not gonna matter to the people around here and her rabid supporters, though.

            • John Konop says:

              You guys think she should of voted no for testing woman for breast cancer amd sexually transmitted diseases?

              You have no issue with lying about the use of the money to win a campaign?

              • I Am Jacks Post says:

                John, at this point you’re just cutting and pasting.

                From the Handel site:

                ” . . . . awarded to Planned Parenthood for breast and cervical cancer screening,”

                • John Konop says:

                  IAJP,

                  How is it a straw man argument? The facts are clear you lied about the money being for abortions and the money was from the Bush White House and a GOP congress end of story.

                  • I Am Jacks Post says:

                    First of all, I don’t know where the “you lied” nonsense is coming from.

                    Secondly, who said anything about abortion. As I read it, the charge against Handel is that she voted to allow funding to go to Planned Parenthood, to “provide family planning services.” If you have a problem with the wording–which appears on the Fulton Comm records–you ought to take it up with the Former Comm Chairman. You know, Karen.

              • zigmaster says:

                Right. The funding went toward the basketball courts at Auschwitz instead of the gas chambers.

                  • zigmaster says:

                    You are sick for justifying one penny that goes into the coffers of planned parenthood. You honestly think that the money doesn’t get mixed and used by all portions of the organization. Baloney. I could care less if Hitler handed out free sandwiches to the homeless.

                    • KingWulfgar says:

                      “I could care less if Hitler handed out free sandwiches to the homeless.”

                      Awesome. I’m with you (even though you just crashed headlong into Godwin’s Law). No dime of taxpayer money should be going to PP for anything. Let them raise their own funds.

                      John Konop, let me introduce you to a little logical device called “fallacy.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fallacy

                    • “I could care less if Hitler handed out free sandwiches to the homeless.”

                      1. Hitler is dead.

                      2. Don’t you mean – “I couldn’t care less…”? Because if you could care less, how much less could you care? A little? A lot? If you *couldn’t* care less, then you’re already caring as little as possible. 😉

                    • benevolus says:

                      If they were those nasty German sandwiches with the meat in aspic then he wasn’t doing the homeless any favors.

                    • KingWulfgar says:

                      @John, I didn’t compare anyone to Hitler. You seem intent on picking a fight, but you’re way out there on a logical limb. At this point, I don’t even know what you’re talking about.

        • B Balz says:

          Nice plug and you do raise one of my fav issues: APATHY.

          Few have the time or desire to dig out the truth. My guess is that there will be a plethora of anonymous mailings, phone calls, over the weekend and up to Tuesday making wild claims.

      • ZazaPachulia says:

        The GOP found itself in this position because the strongest rumored candidate decided not to run (Lynn Westmoreland). Oxendine, Cagle, Johnson and Handel were already waist deep in the race two years ago — scaring off other potential challengers. Then Cagle decided not to run (he threw out his back trying to keep all of his skeletons in his closet).

        Then, the supposed favorite of the establishment got caught up in some messy sleaze in Warshington D.C. (sweetheart Deal)

        Then, the General Assembly refused to close up shop, dooming the promising Chapman and Scott campaigns. Chapman stayed in the race, while Scott (the best candidate left) panicked and bailed after meeting with state party leaders.

        And Ray McBerry is Ray McBerry.

        That’s how we got to where we are today. And that’s how Roy Barnes earned a second term as governor…

        • B Balz says:

          Humorous, sad, largely correct post, thank you for putting it out there. I should hope that everyone reading this marks this place in time.

          • GOPwits says:

            If Barnes is elected, I blame politicians like Eric Johnson. He should have realized he had no chance and not sucked up so much money out of the political system.

            • GG says:

              True. This has severly hampered the candidates running for the 12th Congressional District from Savannah. Johnson sucked up the money.

        • KingWulfgar says:

          Mostly correct. Johnson was running for Lt. Governor, though, until Cagle changed his mind and decided to run for re-election (late 2009ish?). I wish Johnson had stayed put. I would’ve gladly marked his name instead of leaving the Lt. Governor spot blank on my ballot.

        • polisavvy says:

          You summed things up pretty well, Zaza. We knew back in October that the session was going to run long (for obvious reasons) and it did. It did seem to backfire on a certain candidate. As far as Chapman and Scott go, well I couldn’t agree with you more — both are better than what is left. Chapman stayed. Scott left to run for Congress so that he would still be in a position to help not only the 8th, but other Georgians as well. I think my husband summed it up best when he said that he just had to chose the lesser of all evils. That a sad state of affairs — the lesser of all evils.

          • B Balz says:

            Or is it the Evil of Two Lessers, once again?

            We ask WHY is thing so?

            Many believe, because both Parties are owned, part and parcel, by corporate interests and have deviated from representing the human (people) issues. If so, things will only get worse, as corporations may give Big $$$ to pol parties now.

            • polisavvy says:

              I agree with you B Balz. I hope that I live long enough to start seeing people get elected who are running for these positions in order to help and represent us, the voting public, not big business, the buying entities. I am amused at how many politicians go into office, stay a while, and then become wealthy. You don’t have to wonder too long how they became that way. My dad always said that there is no such thing as a “poor lawyer or politician.” He might have been on to something.

  4. birdfan says:

    Mason-Dixon is not a reliable poll at all. Notice they don’t provide any information about the poll, # of individuals asked, when it was taken, etc..

    My feeling is that Handel may be leading Oxedine by a little bit, with Deal and/or Johnson trying to catch the Ox.

    I hope it is a Handel – Johnson run off…where I would definitely support Johnson. He’s got the education, business and leadership experience, and a true conservative.

      • B Balz says:

        M/D was close on the Barnes numbers, prolly within the MOE. I wonder where the unanticipated 12% Perdue voters came from? If they were undecided(s), then I would say we have a mirror election this cycle with a large group of undecided(s).

        I am still undecided on Governor, will wait until 4PM on Tuesday.

    • GOPwits says:

      Plus he’s got a lot of corruption too! You forgot about his ethical shortcomings… He really cashed in while a State Senator with those state contracts…

      It’d be nice if there were some kind of conflict of interest law that prohibited state senators and representatives of doing business with the state.

  5. Doug Deal says:

    One question to ask is “how did they qualify GOP primary voters?” Primary polls can be extremely innacurate, since casual voters are oversampled.

  6. Pine Knot says:

    The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and 12 other Georgia newspapers commissioned the poll. It was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research from July 8 through July 13. A total of 400 likely Democratic primary voters and 400 likely Republican primary voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. There is a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points on both the Democratic and Republican results.

  7. I Am Jacks Post says:

    Similarly, there’s a Rassmusen poll out this morning showing Deal and Handel tied for first. And the poll was conducted post-Mama Grizzly endorsement.

    I won’t dare link the poll, because, you know, the anti-threadjacking spidermonkeys have itchy trigger fingers. And they’re rather injudicious.

    If you were so inclined, you might find said poll at rasmussenreports.com

  8. MouthoftheSouth says:

    There are massive undecided numbers in that runoff, which suggests Balz comment from above might be right; that some Republicans second choice candidate might be a Dem at this point. I think a lot of those people will come home to the Republican candidate though.

      • B Balz says:

        I mentioned to a well known L(l)ib that their Party may see a surge this cycle, and others have concurred.

      • KingWulfgar says:

        Because social conservative Republicans would sooner vote for a lousy tax-and-spend Republican than a fiscally conservative Libertarian.

        • Ludwig Von Beachbum says:

          I think they don’t trust them. Maybe it is because the idiots are more worried about blue laws while we are in a budget crunch and all going to hell. I cant say I blame them.

          Now let me give you the idiot dope smoking Libertarian response.

          Yeah man but if Piggly Wiggly sold beer on Sunday it would eliminate the budget problems.

          • Since I’m a Libertarian and mentioned Piggly Wiggly down below, I can only assume that was in reference to me. If that’s the case I believe you’ve got your assumptions wrong:

            1. I don’t smoke dope. Nor ciggarettes (I quit a few years ago), cigars, salvia divornum or anything else.

            2. I don’t believe you’ll find any Libertarians who have said that Sunday alcohol sales would *eliminate” the budget problems. I said they would marginally affect the state’s budget, but not significantly. My main argument is for freedom. I have one or two alcoholic drinks a month on average. But I see the idiocy of allowing people to drive to a bar to drink and then drive home but not allow people to soberly drive to Publix or Kroger or wherever to purchase a 12 or 24 pack to drive home and *then* drink. Now who’s the idiot?

            I think if you met me in person you’d probably agree that we’ll have to disagree on some issues – but an idiot I am not. (Or at least I don’t think so… I at least passed the MENSA test.)

            • KingWulfgar says:

              I don’t drink at all–never have–and I support allowing those who do the freedom to purchase a legal substance any day of the week. Blue laws are stupid.

              It all comes down to money. If we don’t elect some REAL fiscal conservatives soon and some people who understand how the economy really works (like Peter Schiff), no other issue will matter. I’ve not seen anyone more dedicated to the cause of fiscal conservatism than Libertarians. Social conservatives will watch while Rome burns, but at least people won’t be able to buy beer on Sunday or “marry” their gay lover.

      • MouthoftheSouth says:

        Staples,

        I think much of the disaffected Republican vote will land with the Dem or the Libertarian temporarily, but by November they will come home to the Republican a bit. Even if sat, you don’t like Ox or Handel or whoever, in the end those voters will perceive that a Libertarian vote helps the Dem and go with Republican. Or if that’s too distasteful they will go to the Dem. The Libertarians will show strong in polls from September and October but it will fall away over time.

        In more positive news, I do prefer your store to Office Depot.

        • WCHeadhunter says:

          Besides them Libertarians is really just dope smokin’ hippies in disguise who believe in evil-lution and drinkin’ on the Lord’s Day.

          • “Besides them Libertarians is really just dope smokin’ hippies in disguise who believe in evil-lution and drinkin’ on the Lord’s Day.”

            I’d hardly call myself a “dope smokin’ hippie”. But even Republicans believe in drinkin’ on the Lord’s day… preferably in a bar. They just don’t believe in selling the stuff at Piggly Wiggly on Sundays. 😀

        • “I think much of the disaffected Republican vote will land with the Dem or the Libertarian temporarily, but by November they will come home to the Republican a bit.”

          You mean in polls? (Since Libertarians won’t be in the primaries.) I agree that too many people will be holding their nose and voting for the Republican no matter who it is…

          • MouthoftheSouth says:

            Yeah, I meant in polls. Libertarians, in my opinion, need to win some local elections and push toward a Congressional challenge in an area where Democrats cannot compete and either run nobody or a nominal opponent. They aren’t going to be successful if the only time people have the opportunity to vote Libertarian is as a protest vote.

            • That sounds great, in theory. But so long as Libertarians have to gather signatures to get into those races, it’s a tough thing to actually accomplish. Were Democrats and Republicans to pass a good ballot access bill giving third parties and independents equal access to the ballot you might actually see some Libertarians elected to down ballot offices.

              Personally I’d like to see parties go away altogether. Let people be elected on their ideas rather than the party they claim to be with. That way you don’t have socially conservative but fiscally irresponsible Republicans, etc. Imagine… people would actually have to know what the person was planning on doing and could no longer vote based on the letter beside the person’s name. Alternatively, let’s at least remove the letter beside the candidate’s name. If you don’t know anything about either candidate, do you really need to be voting in that race?

    • polisavvy says:

      Hysterical post! Laughed out loud especially the part about “like likely being pregnant.” Too funny! 🙂

      • I dunno… I predict that Undecided’s numbers will slowly dwindle over these remaining days right up until the point at which people cast their vote. In a last minute decision they’ll give up and vote for someone else.

        • B Balz says:

          I agree. I spoke with a group last night, Karen, Nathan, Eric, not Ox, Karen, Nathan, Eric, not Ox and around and around it went.

          What if 50% of undecided goes to Roy? How would that be measured? Would an unexpected spike in Roy’s numbers be attributed to GOP X-over?

          • Doug Grammer says:

            I doubt that will happen. the GOP has way too many races in play. They might be undecided for Gov., but what about labor, AG, PSC and the rest? There will be 1/3 more in the GOP primary than the Dem. Bank on it.

            • Agreed. The GOP primary is where people probably feel that they need to vote against the Ox and others.

              Barnes pretty much has the Dem primary wrapped up in my opinion. So why waste your time voting there?

Comments are closed.