New Poll Has Handel in the Lead

Magellan Strategies has come on strong this year with a number of polls across the country. They’ve made their way to Georgia to deliver good news to Karen Handel.

A Magellan Strategies survey of 1,227 likely Republican primary voters finds Secretary of State Karen Handel has a 14 point lead over her nearest opponent. Handel is getting 32% of the vote, while former Congressman Nathan Deal and Commissioner of Insurance John Oxendine are statistically tied for second with 18%. Senator Eric Johnson has 12%, Jeff Chapman and Ray McBerry both garner 3%, while 14% remain undecided.

The survey was conducted last Thursday night from 6pm to 8pm with a margin of error of ± 2.8%. (Sure seems incredible that they got through 1,227 interviews in 2 hours, but nationally they’ve held close to other pollsters)

In other words, this does not factor in the Palin endorsement.

I’m curious to find out what the AJC poll is going to show later this week.

133 comments

  1. Good god. There is NO way this is an accurate poll. 1,227 calls all completed in one night between 6 PM and 8 PM.

    I am rarely at home before 8 PM on a Thursday. My money is on Survey USA, they may not be “coming on strong” but they were ranked #3 in Nate Silver’s pollster rankings and have been around for quite some time.

      • Lady Thinker says:

        Depends on how many people were doing the calling. With 30 people calling, it comes down to 40.9 for two hours, which is 2.9 minutes per call. Then it depends on the number of questions asked per call.

              • Lady Thinker says:

                I teach part-time at a local college because of my master’s degree but I am not a Ph.D. yet. People possessing a master’s can teach the first two years of college.

                I don’t name the college because we are not allowed to put the college’s name in the open like this.

                • sofnbc says:

                  I have to agree with you, we had quite a few people doing a phone bank one night for EJ and I made 50 calls in less than 2 hours. Keep it short and sweet and you can accomplish the task. BTW, although we don’t agree on a lot of things, as a fellow Adjunct I appreciate your thirst for facts.

                  • Lady Thinker says:

                    A kindred soul! At lease we are able to agree to disagree without tearing each other apart and as you know, that makes for a good debate. I look forward to your future posts.

        • Ambernappe says:

          I am glad I read this before posting as I had calculat3ed very close to the same numbers – an experienced, articulate caller can average 2 calls per minute, easily. If you have received many poll calls, you can tell the difference. Apparently the key to their success is hiring the best – more time beforehand results in much greater accuracy and demand for their services.

      • ReaganRepublican says:

        Erick, all joking and bickering aside. What church is Karen Handel a member of? I know where you go to church and that is why I expect better from you. But which church is Karen a member of? In the outside chance that she is to win the nomination, the only way she beats Barnes is with the help of the Christian right, who do all the work. Where does she hold her letter of church membership?

        • Tireless says:

          Like her pandering position on the NRA “I am a lifetime member even though I don’t own a gun” ….. Handel’s probably going to claim she is a member of some church she gave a contribution to, even though she never attends the church. Yet she claims her contribution to the LCR doesn’t mean she is a member of that organization. Being a chronic liar gets real confusing over the long haul.

            • John Konop says:

              Anyone making that comment does not understand the bible. Jesus warned about the Pharisees being false profits. Jesus is about loving your neighbor, not judging people and forgiveness.

              If I follow your logic you would have any woman that ever had an abortion and or used IVF to create life up on murder charges. You guys will destroy the GOP.

              The next generation does not support gay bashing, irrational social policies…..it is only time before you destroy it.

              • Tireless says:

                Did you graduate from the Obama School of Creating Idiotic Strawmen? If not, you could earn a PhD at OSCIS with that moronic retort.

                I think we will allow false prophets like Handel to ruin the GOP. Maverick McCain started the job, an uber RINO like Handel could finish it off in Georgia.

        • Ambernappe says:

          Karen’s church affiliation is none of your business. However, she does have one, and if you read, it has been mentioned in her campaign literature. By the way, I have never heard a conversation about religious affiliations while volunteering with her campaign.

          • Tireless says:

            I am pretty certain whatever interests me is my business.

            I hesitate relying on her campaign literature given the obvious fact it contains numerous lies.

            • ReaganRepublican says:

              She has literature out there claiming to be endorsed by Pastor Benny Tate. Come to find out, Benny did no such thing this election cycle. Karen lied again….

              • Lady Thinker says:

                RR,

                The majority of what you post is lies so I do not accept youi comments about Benny Tate.

            • Lady Thinker says:

              No, whatever interest you is not your business. Karen has a public life and a private life. You are only entitled to the public life.

        • Lady Thinker says:

          RR,

          After all you have done to hurt Karen, you are not entitled to know anything personal to her. You are not trustworthy so you are not entitled to this information.

      • B Balz says:

        Handy link to hear Roy discussing how he will improve Georgia image, jobs, education, transportation, and infrastructure on WABE.

        http://www.publicbroadcasting.net/wabe/news.newsmain?action=article&ARTICLE_ID=1675392

        This is what the voters are hearing. An articulate, well spoken, Georgian, discussing practical matters. I hope whoever ends up talking to Roy in November is equally, no better, able to convince voters.

        While GOP candidates squabble, ungraciously about the floor like unruly toddlers, the Dem candidate gains traction. A run-off will only worsen the perception of GOP discord and in these very uncertain times, benefit the Dems.

      • B Balz says:

        In my opinion, Ms. Handel mishandles Mr. Doug Richards:

        http://www.11alive.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=146501&catid=40

        I can understand the exasperation that Ms. Handel must have felt after inviting 11Alive reporter Mr. Doug Richards on board her campaign bus. Further, the issue of ‘gay marriage’, ‘gay adoption’ is far less important to me, than the manner in which Ms. Handel chooses to respond to Mr. Richards who was clearly pressing the issue:

        Q: So you think gay couples are less qualified to function as parents than straight couples?

        A: I think that for a child to be in a household — in a family in a household with a situation where the parents are not married, as in one man and one woman, is not the best household for a child.

        Q: Is it better or worse than a single parent household?

        A: Doug, I’m really trying to be straightforward with you but I’m not going to debate all the nuances. I’ve made it abundantly clear that I think that marriage is between a man and a woman. And that’s what I believe, and I don’t know what more you would like me to add to that.

        Q: I guess I want to know why you think gay parents aren’t as legitimate as heterosexual parents.

        A: Because I don’t.

        Q: (Pause) Well, I realize that.

        A: Well, Doug, we’re not going to spend the whole day discussing this issue. And you know, it ‘s really kind of disappointing — we invited you on this (leg of the bus trip).

        Q: I know.

        A: So we’re going to need to move on.

        At any given time, the Governor may face a dogged fourth estate, and using the ‘we’re going to need to move on’ response doesn’t impress me much.

        An ability to express oneself clearly (as was done) while being patient and not being dismissive are important skills for the top executive in any undertaking.

        Mishandling the press is easy to do. Had Ms. Handel simply continually repeated her positions (which were well stated) she would have come off looking badgered instead of dismissive.

    • Doug Deal says:

      I’ve been running a calling program I developed and 6-8pm m-Thursday is probably the most like time to reach someone. Nearly a 100% chance of reaching someone, however the odds of finding a willing participant and qualified voter are somewhat less.

      If, like some pollsters they use automated polling, 1127 calls is just a matter of throwing enough lines at it. A 5 minute poll (regardless of response rate, with trivial call time for a busy, or hangup) means 12 completed calls an hour per line, or 500 seats.

        • I was thinking the same thing. Technology is a wonderful thing and can do much more than people give it credit for. It’s not like they’re saying this poll was done by one person manning one telephone. It could have been an outsourced call center doing the poll or it could have been an automated system using VOIP. I would think Asterisk (an open source VOIP software) could probably be modified fairly easily by someone that knows what they’re doing to accomplish this feat.

  2. zigmaster says:

    EJ is 6pts from the run-off with a huge network of folks working their butts off. My money is on him to finish 2nd.

  3. Pine Knot says:

    Probably a dumb question, but it would also be funny as hell. Could Ox miss the runoff and have a Deal/Handel or Handel/Johnson runoff. I don’t see it with his kind of money and name recognition, but the media is after Ox day and night.

    • I’m still believing in will be a Handel/Johnson runoff. Oxendine has a LOT of name I.D. His signs are everywhere. So when a polling company calls and asks who they’re voting for they’ll either go undecided or Ox. Ox’s numbers are inflated in the polls and will come back to reality on election day when these people vote for someone else or just leave the GOP governor section blank. And I have a feeling that Deal’s numbers may drop too. His performance will depend solely upon how many Hall County voters that Lee Hawkins can get out to vote for him in the GA-9 primary.

      • Pine Knot says:

        I’ve heard from a couple of people in south ga that Romney might endorse Handel this weekend or early next week. If that is true, I do not think it would help her much. He is liberal and a flip flopper anyways. He says anything to get elected.

      • DoubleDawg3 says:

        One slight correction – people in Hall County aren’t turning out to vote for Lee Hawkins, they’re turning out to vote for Nathan Deal & Casey Cagle, Hawkins might just benefit from that, but not vice versa.

  4. Pine Knot says:

    The undecided vote still shapes this election. The Palin thing was big for Karen, but I think Newt will become a factor as he is a Georgia man, and some people who are ultra conservative are turned off by Palin. Then again, each canidate seems to be trying to go after the far right vote.

    • GOPwits says:

      Who is Newt? Is he that guy that endorsed the liberal Democrat Dede Scouzafaza in NY when everyone, including Palin, endorsed the conservative candidate?

      Newt is just returning a favor for an old colleague from the House… Those old politicians tend to stick together you know…

      • Provocateur says:

        When people find out that Handel voted to approve $1.2 million in tax dollars to be given to Planned Parenthood, we’ll see how the voters feel about her.

        • GOPwits says:

          More false allegations from her opponents…

          The money went for cancer screenings and prenatal care… The law dictates that none of that money could be used for abortions…

          Will the Oxendine people please get familiar with Georgia law… Wait a minute, that explains Oxendine now – he doesn’t know the law and that’s why he’s so darn unethical…

          • Doug Grammer says:

            GOP lack of witts,

            Provocateur didn’t say what the money was used for. Now did she approve the money or didn’t she? Did it go to planned parenthood, or didn’t it?

            It sounds to me like you just said “yes,” “yes,” and “but….”

            • Lady Thinker says:

              Provocateur,

              I answered that question on another thread but won’t do it again because Icarus said not to post the same thing on every thread.

              In a sentence, you are wrong again and are posting more lies as truth.

          • Lady Thinker says:

            GOPwits,

            You are so on target with your comments. I really look forward to reading your posts as they reflect reality very well.

  5. Tiberius says:

    Hard to believe such a turnaround.

    A Handel/Johnson runoff would be best. Best in November vs. Barnes.

      • Pine Knot says:

        Not according to the last few months of Rass polling. Maybe you have an inside scoop on something.

        • It’s all about name recognition. After either one of these two is the GOP candidate for a few months, people will know them and they will have the best chance of winning. It’s just like if people knew about Deal’s background better he wouldn’t be leading significantly against Barnes.

  6. EllisArnall says:

    I disagree. As much as I hate to say it, I think Ox will make the runoff. Georgians have been voting for him in a statewide office for way too long. People who pay as much attention to PP are over-informed compared to most voters. Ox and Handel make the runoff.

  7. Just curious, does anyone think that Oxendine and Deal might start attacking each other on ethics or do you think that they’ll continue to focus on Handel?

    • Lady Thinker says:

      I think they will focus on Karen to try to steal her thunder because she is mor a threat to each of them than they are to each other.

    • Icarus says:

      The fact that both Ox and Deal are spending money to attack Handel tells me that this poll may not be too far off the mark.

      Whether they believe she’s in first or second, neither of them wants to face her in the runoff.

        • TPNoGa says:

          I hope it’s EJ. He’s my second choice. His commericals are pretty decent. Karen needs serious help with producing ads.

        • Lady Thinker says:

          I see Karen and OX, and that is why OX is going after her. I feel he wants her in the run-off with him and with his attack ads, OX feels Karen will lose in the run-off which will put OX face to face with Barnes.

          OX can’t see that it really is the opposite, that Karen will win the run-off and Karen will face Barnes and win.

        • GOPwits says:

          I think his best chance is to ask for a refund from the people who produced his ads. They are boring and don’t stand out. He just blends in to being just another politician who served nearly 20 years in government who finally thinks it’s his turn…

          He could use the refunded money to build a time machine and go back in time and step up and run for Lt. Gov in 2006 and then run for Governor in 2010…

      • Three Jack says:

        agreed icarus…bet they have internal polling that scares the hell out of them, especially ox who thought his runoff position was secure.

        the ox people have been flooding fb with attack posts about karen, then de-friend anybody who challenges them. what a bunch of chicken-fecal babies.

    • GOPwits says:

      Oxendine is stupid to be ignoring Deal… Deal is about to pass him… You’d think he’d spend some of that shakedown money going after the other corrupt politician in the race to ensure he’s in the runoff…

  8. TPNoGa says:

    All you need to see in order to know who is in the lead is Ox’s commericals. He is attacking Karen, big time. “She likes gays and dead babies I tell ya!”

    Ox’s actions speak louder than any poll.

  9. Robert Hennessy says:

    Anyone willing to guess that Barnes will end up in a runoff? Does the Clinton endorsement not mix things up a little bit? I know it’s between slim and none, but I can’t see Slim’s tail lights just yet…

    Curious to hear people’s thoughts.

    • AthensRepublican says:

      It’s possible. A lot of Democrats are still mad at Roy Barnes. I expect him to finish a strong-first place and maybe narrowly missing a majority. The other candidates are just starting to spend some money so there is a possibility someone like DuBose Porter can force him into a run-off.

      • ACCmoderate says:

        I don’t know what Dems you know (although from the title AthensRepublican, I can assume you’re surrounded by them), but most Dems are confident that he’s the best shot come November.

        I think he makes it through without a runoff.

        • AthensRepublican says:

          I have talked to several Democrats that will not be voting for Barnes. That said, I do think he will be the nominee. He is hitting on the right themes.

      • Ambernappe says:

        Many South Georgians remember very well that they did not re-elect Barnes. I predict a Baker-Porter ticket, and Karen Handel winning over either of them.

  10. debbie0040 says:

    You know, I am getting really ticked off by you sock pockets beating the same dead horse over and over again by saying that Handel is not a conservative. She is a conservative. I gained new respect for Handel when she is the only candidate that had enough courage to stand up to McBerry by refusing to appear on stage with him. all of the other candidates were afraid of him and his supporters and did nothing. the bottom line is that all GOP candidates are conservative and there are some good choices in the GOP Primary for Governor. Decide which one you prefer and quit making false statements about the others..

    • Provocateur says:

      Are you the same Debbie who was vice-chair of the Cobb GOP some years ago under a sleazy chairman named Anthony Scott Hobbs? You, Madam, have no credibility for the truth, for any position you take or anyone you defend.

      Handel isn’t a “conservative.” Not in the sense of what any true conservative thinks.

      • debbie0040 says:

        Please elaborate what your definition of a “true conservative” is and do you think they have to pass your litmus test?. I would be most interested…

      • debbie0040 says:

        Provocateur, in your other posts you say nasty things about Buzz Brockway, David Casas and Mike Royal and claim 18 years of experience in Gwinnett politics. You should do a much better job of hiding your identity

        • c_murrayiii says:

          Considering Provocateur attacked me personally in a previous post as well, I’d like to know who he/she/it is Debbie if you have a good idea…but to keep things on the point, it seems to me this whole race is about personal attacks and personal ideas of what “conservative” means. I haven’t read much substance on PP about any of the Gov candidates. Of course ethics problems/lying are important, but what I mean is, I’d like to hear more specifics and details about how each candidate is going to make Georgia a better place…I know, so naive…

  11. debbie0040 says:

    For the record, there is a tea party in South Georgia that was going to make an endorsement in the Governor’s race and polled their members. The top two candidates got 37% and 38% respectively so they decided against making an endorsement because there was no consensus. The top two were Handel and Johnson. Johnson surprised many when he won the straw poll at the 9-12 event Saturday. Many expected McBerry to win it because his supporters really worked the email getting McBerry supporters to come out. (It was a great event btw) McBerry finished 2 and Handel was third.

  12. zigmaster says:

    There’s no way Handel wins a run-off versus Deal or Johnson. She better hope OX hangs on to 2nd or she pulls 45% on election night.

  13. ACCmoderate says:

    Roy is already aiming his sights on Republicans. Republicans are still busy shooting at themselves. The Dems have been talking up education and jobs… meanwhile the latest ads from Deal and Oxendine deal with immigrants, gays, and abortion.

    Social issues run well when the economy isn’t in the tank. I really hope that the GOP can find a message before going toe to toe with Roy.

  14. True Grit says:

    No way this is accurate. Count on it falling this way:

    Ox-32-38%
    Handel-23-25%
    Deal-Johnson-15-18%
    All the others-Who cares.

    There might be a surge by Deal because of the Gingrich endorsement. He might get to 20.

    • Provocateur says:

      You’re misreading those numbers. It is Handel who is sinking fast as people learn more about her true record of supporting Planned Parenthood to the tune of over $1,000,000 in taxpayer funds.

      • Lady Thinker says:

        Provocateur,

        You are posting the same theme over and over with no facts. Karen didn’t do what you are saying and enough people know it. She isn’t sinking, she is gaining.

        • AthensRepublican says:

          You are correct. I am not supporting Karen Handel but view her as the front-runner with Oxendine, Deal & Johnson (I am backing Johnson) battling for the other spot. Oxendine is sinking fast and I don’t think Deal’s campaign against her is going to win him any votes and will likely cost him.

  15. Tireless says:

    John Konop July 14, 2010 at 4:55 pm
    Tireless,

    Why not post under your real name and tell us. It is no secrete who I am and what I do for living.

    =================

    You said you know what I do for a living, prove it or retract your lame post.

  16. John Konop says:

    Someone sent me this e-mail.

    THE E-MAIL:

    ….Ox’s attack is flat wrong. The budget he points to in his ad was in January of 2004. Karen hadjust been in office for two months and had a $100 million deficit. The proposal presented wasto raise taxes to cover it. Karen pushed through budget cuts and balanced the budget withoutraising taxes. In the very article that Oxendine uses in his ad, Karen is quoted saying we mustreduce the budget.

    Karen did not support money to an abortion provider or Planned Parenthood.

    The federal government passed money down to the state, who then passed it down to FultonCounty. The money was for screening for sexually transmitted diseases and breast cancer.The money was prohibited by law from being used for anything relating to abortions. Planned Parenthood was the only bidder for the funds, and Ka.ren was powerless to stop it. It could have been stopped at the state level, and as Governor Karen will prevent these types of pass through funding……

  17. TalmadgeGhost says:

    Please oh please oh please keep this up. We are loving it. Candidates so much more interested in Power than Principal. Someone, anyone please pull a Skandalakis and show some visage staggering down the hall of a treatment center flanked by giant Confederate (not state mind you) flags.

    On a less partisan note, Handel is really hampering her own ability to tack back toward the middle if she were to win the nomination – she needs to begin the process of getting out the message of personal preference (her’s) over law – and that she would uphold and protect the law. Worked for Zell Miller over and over again.

    I asked this question before, but never got an answer. Can someone of GOP ilk please explain to me why anyone would make the comment – “and some people who are ultra conservative are turned off by Palin.”
    How in the world is this possible? Are you meaning by “ultra conservative” like Randy Weaver or the Montana Militia – because I would think even those guys would like her. Someone help me out here.

    • TalmadgeGhost says:

      Please excuse me – it should read personal preference (her’s) vs. law, not “over law”.

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