Jackson County GOP Straw Poll.

Enjoy.

Governor
Raymond Boyd – 0%
Jeff Chapman – 0%
Nathan Deal – 42.86%
Karen Handel – 26.19%
Eric Johnson – 0%
Ray McBerry – 14.29%
John Oxendine – 16.67%
Austin Scott – 0%

State Senate District 47
Douglas Bower – 2.44%
Shane Coley – 12.20%
Kelley Gary – 34.15%
Pat Graham – 51.22%

33 comments

  1. AlanR says:

    This means very little in the grand scheme of things, but still it must be good news for the Deal campaign. It must be especially comforting to know that the only Icarus Jackson republicans know is Greek, and long gone.

    The Deal part of this makes sense. Close to home. But what’s with Handel? Pack the house, or just working hard where she’s not supposed to do well?

    • Lawton Sack says:

      I think you would have to know how many votes were cast to get any type of perspective on this (or any) straw poll. My math geekness tells me that there were some multiple of 42 (42, 84, 126, etc.) voters in the gubernatorial straw poll. If there were 42 voters, it would take only 9 votes to break the 20% mark.

      Buzz: You have any idea how many votes were cast?

      • Doug Deal says:

        Here is my count, based on numerical analysis of the reported figures:

        .4286 = 18/42
        .2619 = 11/42
        .1429 = 6/42
        .1667 = 7/42

        .0244 = 1/41
        .1220 = 5/41
        .3415 = 14/41
        .5122 = 21/41

        It is highly unlikely it is a multiple of 42 or 41 (for the state senate), since the numbers match exactly and as you add a multiple, the probability that every candidate would have a multiple of that multiple of votes becomes ever more remote.

        • Lawton Sack says:

          Warning — Math Nerdness Ahead:

          Doug, I like the way you think!

          I used Excel and came up with a large table of percentages and did a quick search. I didn’t have any idea how large the Jackson GOP crowd was, so I figured it was either 42/41 or 84/82.

          In the case it is 42 voters, a campaign team and/or family members/friends could skew the poll easily. A larger number of voters, and that is taken out of the equation.

          If you double both the numbers (votes received/total votes), the percentages stay the same:

          .4286 = 36/84
          .2619 = 22/84
          .1429 = 12/84
          .1667 = 14/84

          .0244 = 2/82
          .1220 = 10/82
          .3415 = 28/82
          .5122 = 42/82

          • Doug Deal says:

            Yeah, but since the “atomization” of the totals get reletively smaller as you go up, the oddas that a multiple would all have values that fall on the percentages for the Least Common Multiple makes it unlikely it is anything other than the LCM.

            For example, 37/84 votes or 3/82. If you had a 50-50 shot (only even votes are divisible by 2) that doubling the number of people voting would result in a each single result landing on a valid percentage, instead of one that does not fit, the odds against it would be 250:1.

            It’s impossible, but unlikely.

    • Back in Black says:

      The real interesting point is that Pat Graham won the State Senate straw poll by a pretty good number. Kind of hard to get a majority of the vote in a four way race.

      Deal winning is no surprise.

      But Pat Graham beating Kelley Gary is pretty embarrassing to him at this point.

  2. Will Harrison says:

    Wait a minute. I thought Deal was declared officially dead by the pundits on this site. There must be something wrong with this straw poll.

  3. B Balz says:

    42 opinions in a homogeneous group that are contrary to virtually any other poll group. Is this a bellwether or an outlier?

    What is the percent of total GOP votes the Fightin’ 9th contributes in past gubernatorial primaries? Or, has the 9th ever carried a State election for Governor?

    • GOPGeorgia says:

      You would think that each congressional district would add 1/13 of the vote, or about 7.5%. In 2008, Deal got 54,653 votes in the GOP primary in the 9th. Saxby got 392,902 votes statewide primary so allowing for drop off, the 9th brought in 14% of the vote state-wide. In 06, the numbers were 47,682 for Deal and 370,756 (Perdue) + 48,498 (McBerry) = 419,254. So in this case, it was a little more than 11% of the state-wide vote. In 02, we had 43,874 for Deal (then called the 10th). In the Gov. race, 108,586 (Byrne) + 259,966 (Perdue) + 142,911 (Schrenko) = 511,436, giving the 9th (10th) about 8.5% of the state-wide vote.

      In all of these elections, the numbers for Deal in the 9th (or 10th) was without a challenger in the primary. My prediction is that the 9th will bring between 15 to 20% of the state-wide vote of 2010 in the GOP primary because of all of the candidates for congress we have this year. The lines were a bit different in 02.

      In the general election of 06 the 9th brought in 8% of the total state-wide vote, but 10.5% of the Republican votes. In 02, the 9th (10th) brought in 6.5% of the total state-wide vote, but 12.5% of the Republican votes.

      Bottom line, I think the 9th has helped provide the margin of victory in the Gov. race in the general.

      • B Balz says:

        Thanks Doug, if all of Georgia was as active as the 9th, we’d see a different picture under the Dome.

        @Will Harrison, You are correct, lousy segue on my part.

  4. HowardRoark says:

    Who is from where in the Senate 47 race? Was this in any candidates back yard? Who is generally thought to be the front runner there?

  5. polisavvy says:

    The validity of this Jackson Co. straw poll is now in question since Ray McBerry had 14.29%. After seeing his plate tag, which says “CONFED,” does Georgia really want to give this man the keys the Governors Mansion? I think not.

    • macho says:

      The remote chance that Ray McBerry had of even ending up on the radar screen, was flushed down the toilet when Boyd entered the race.

      • polisavvy says:

        I believe you are dead on about Mr. McBerry, macho. I just had to share the plate tag story. Couldn’t believe it when I saw it.

      • GOPGeorgia says:

        McBerry will still have his followers. You assume his numbers could/would rise. All of Boyd’s numbers will come from the guy I’ve heard about, but have not met. His name is “undecided.’

        • polisavvy says:

          You may be onto something, GOPGeorgia. Everyone keeps overlooking the “undecideds” or “no opinions.” Their votes are the ones that could quite possibly determine the outcome.

  6. RINO Hunter says:

    Ray McBerry, the only candidate that vows to stop unconstitutional Federal action against Georgia citizens? That Ray McBerry? The candidate with 2200 volunteers to the campaign? That Ray McBerry?
    The candidate who hasn’t taken a single penny from special interests or corporations? That Ray McBerry? The candidate who has been pushing for State’s Rights for a decade – even before it became popular for political reasons to say you believed in the 10th Amendment? That Ray McBerry?

    I’m afraid you socialists and RINOs are going to be in for a big surprise come November. Of course, what do I know? Maybe Georgia is ready for King Roy again – or a spineless RINO moderate? We’ll see, I suppose….we’ll see……

Comments are closed.