New poll from Rasmussen on gubernatorial race

Rasmussen is out with some new polling in head-to-head general election match-ups between former Gov. Roy Barnes and the top four Republicans.

The poll also shows overwhelming support for the issue of Sunday alcohol sales to be decided by residents over local leaders.

Barnes vs. Deal

Roy Barnes   40% 
Nathan Deal   43%
Other 5%
Undecided   13%

Barnes vs. Handel

Roy Barnes   39% 
Karen Handel   42%
Other 5%
Undecided   14%

Barnes vs. Johnson

Roy Barnes 40%
Eric Johnson   38% 
Other 6%
Undecided   16%

Barnes vs. Oxendine

Roy Barnes 41%
John Oxendine   41% 
Other 6%
Undecided   11%


        • ByteMe says:

          So how did he handle the fact they didn’t talk to anyone using a cell phone or VOIP and only went with land-line calls, which skew predominantly older and whiter?

          • Doug Deal says:

            The normalize the data against party affiliation and such.

            The hidden secret is that polls are not so much scientific as guesswork. The pollster has to guess about expected turnout, current party identification and other factors then adjust the raw number to fit his beliefs.

            If the polls were truly random, multiple polls would come up with the same answer. They don’t, and often vary consistantly by as much as 10%. The ones that are accurate know their art and have good instincts about voting patterns.

            Think of it this way. Most competitive elections (the only ones generally polled) finish with a 0-10% spread. If the average poll has a MOE of 3-5% (that actually means +3 to +5 for one candidate and -3 to -5 for the other or a 6-10% spread), what do they really mean in close races?

      • BuckheadConservative says:

        Byte, attacking Rasmussen’s credibility is soooo 2004. We’ll wait while you catch up.

    • B Balz says:

      When you hear Nathan Deal speak, he has the polish, toughness, and experience needed to swing a vote. He has an innate pugilistic skill to debate a trial lawyer like Roy Barnes and win.

      Not my first pick, I am just sayin’…..

    • DMZDave says:

      Plus, if you are a Democrat no matter who wins, Roy Barnes or Nathan Deal, you can be happy. Neither voted for Ronald Reagan and both supported Bill Clinton.

  1. peachstealth says:

    Rasmussen over-weights people who say they are likely voters. If that’s Old White Republicans, then so be it

    • Gary Cooper says:

      He also seems to be the most accurate. Been following him since 2003 and every election he polls for is generally within .5 to 1.5% point of the exact vote total.

      I always love that line that people who disagree with this polls throw out. The one about young people not getting polled because they only have cell phones or VOIP. Yeah, doesn’t seem to be hurting him.

      • ByteMe says:

        Gary, you really have to stop reading Rasmussen’s press releases that proclaim his accuracy on the final poll, but conveniently ignore his 2-3% point tilt toward the Republicans in every single poll up to that last one.

        His model of “likely voters” is incorrectly weighted (if he weights it), and his sampling is one-sided so he misses most young and urban voters.

        Learn to ask more questions like “how do you determine a likely voter?” The answer most times is “they voted in the last x election cycles, which immediately throws out any voter who wasn’t old enough to vote last time.

  2. Doug Deal says:

    What are those numbers when you add “who’s under an ethics cloud and Congressional ethics investigation” after Deal’s name?

    Because that’s going to be his name if he gets the nomination.

    • Mozart says:

      That message has to be delivered to the voter, Doug. Having it appear on blogs and in the various newspapers in the state do not reach anywhere near the number of voters it may have once upon a time…

  3. Ludwig Von Beachbum says:

    How do Razzamatazzz make the claim two candidates are dead even when 4.5% is the margin of error ….. in itty bitty small writing at the bottom of the page.

    If you are about accuracy wouldn’t you say the candidates withing the error margin are just that?

    Oh look , they all are.

  4. Jane says:

    I have not heard from little red in a while, I guess he is upset Ray McBerry was not in the poll.

  5. ReaganRepublican says:

    Georgia knows that Nathan Deal is the steady and reliable hand needed to lead Georgia through the difficult times ahead.

      • Ludwig Von Beachbum says:

        She didn’t take her elected term as Secretary Of State “all the way”

        Wouldn’t the true supporters of the candidate be known the day after the election ? You really think that link is impressive relating that Handel has signed on an X big money BellSouth executive and Chamber member to her campaign as sign of support ? ( I am not going to pay to read the rest of the article ) Was she trying to one up Eric Johnson who put a big money Reynolds ( was doing business with the state ) on his? AND YOU WANNA SHOUT ETHICS ??

        This is what’s wrong with the Republican party.

        • ByteMe says:

          She didn’t take her elected term as Secretary Of State “all the way”

          So in the vernacular of Georgia Politics, “we only got to third base with her.”

        • Republican Lady says:

          She was ethical in leaving her Secretary of State position to run for an office in which she would oversee the elections in July, August (if there is a run-off), and November. She strongly believes in transparency and ethical behavior and has the courage to make the hard decisions. As I have asked before, would you have accused her of manipulating the results if she had stayed?

          As for the article, she got some great support as reported in the Atlanta Business Chronicle, so why do you think that is unethical? The article also listed the supporters the other candidates have picked up, so what is the problem?

  6. Mike Hauncho says:

    It’s funny how Ox declares that he is the only one who can beat Roy yet he is tied in the polls. He needs to focus on the primary. Karen, Eric and Nathan are all focused on July 2o. Come to think of it, Ox, stay focused on November.

  7. Ken Stepp says:

    Looks like Karen is still doing great. Three points separate her and Deal from Barnes. Glad to see both of them ahead of Barnes. We’ve been there and done that. I’d hate a Barnes repeat.

  8. Since it is obvious that no one from the other parties can win, might as well vote for OTHER . That is, if you really want someone who’ll fight for your liberty and not just give it lip service.

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