Ignoring Jason’s Wise Advice, Ox Claims He’s Only One Who Can Beat Barnes.

Yesterday Jason Pye posted a new poll from Rasmussen showing that three GOP Gubernatorial candidates poll within the margin error of Democratic Front Runner Roy Barnes. Jason then offered this advice:

According to the toplines, the poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.5…so if I were a candidate on the GOP side, I wouldn’t send out a press release claiming that I’m the only candidate that can beat Roy Barnes

This morning I received this email from the Oxendine campaign titled “Thanks to you, only Oxendine defeats Barnes, says Rasmussen.” The email goes on:

The latest Rasmussen poll should be a great encouragement to each and every one of you who have worked so hard for John Oxendine. From your donations to volunteer efforts to lending your personal influence, you have helped solidify our lead.

Rasmussen, a popular national pollster often featured on Fox News and the Sean Hannity Show, released poll results Thursday showing that only John Oxendine defeats Roy Barnes in a match up that pits the popular State Insurance and Safety Fire Commissioner against former Governor Roy Barnes.

According to the release, “John Oxendine, Georgia’s fire and insurance commissioner, picks up 44% of the vote while Barnes gets 42% in that match-up.”

In case you think we are getting ahead of ourselves, Rasmussen finds that “Oxendine holds a wide lead in the 2010 Republican Primary.”

“It is worth noting that this survey was conducted this week,” said Tim Echols, Campaign Manager.

And I thought Ox didn’t read Peach Pundit. Maybe he’s decided to listen to our advice then do the exact opposite.

58 comments

  1. rugby says:

    I can’t wait until Rasmussen’s you create the poll service goes live.

    Weekly updates from the Ox on his inevitability to win the Governor’s race.

  2. trainsplz says:

    While the resident ungulate’s misrepresentation of statistics is not surprising, I was pretty surprised at the general polling numbers for Barnes. I guess he’s still got a lot of pull.

    • B Balz says:

      Great word: ungulate.

      Barnes has name recognition, and given the average person’s extremely short memory span of things political, that may or may not be good.

      Voters recognize the Barnes name, and unless you were against the Outer Loop, an educator, or a fan of the old State flag, the rest of the legacy is lost to time.

      At the proper time, peoples memories will be refreshed, and then let’s observe the polls.

      • Dave Bearse says:

        And educator’s memories may be getting fuzzy, given the last eight years and current eduction funding trend.

  3. If I didn’t think it’d be the end of the State, I’d wish for Oxendine to win the primary and to lose to Barnes in the general.

    By like a 15 point margin.

    I’d have to move to another state to keep my sanity though, so I don’t wish that.

  4. Mayonnaise says:

    Oxendine has name recognition and money. A dangerous combination. While I agree that he’ll crash and burn in the general versus Barnes, the primary does not lend itself to as much attention from the public.

    Translated: Ox may win this thing!!!

    Eric Johnson is the best candidate to defeat the OX. Handel and Deal already have name recognition and it’s done nothing for them in catching the Ox.

    • Tireless says:

      Agreed. Johnson is the only candidate that has gone up against Barnes and Johnson ate Roy’s lunch during Barnes’ failed term as governor. Barnes will make Ox, Handel and Deal look like fools in public debates…actually, they will do that without any assistance from Barnes.

      • Republican Lady says:

        Many political analysts thought Lester Maddox was a fool and he became governor. When some people feel threatened by their opponents, it is typical to call them fools to minimize true feelings of insecurity.

    • Making Sense says:

      A status quo candidate like Johnson has no hope against Roy. Johnson turned the other cheek on ethics, he sat by while property taxes went up, he helped push through the GA Power revenue bill, he has allowed the massive expansion of unfunded mandates, AND he just represents more of the same.

      Georgians want a new leader. They want Karen Handel.

      • Tireless says:

        Eric Johnson is the only person in this pack that was a leading force in the conservative/Republican takeover of this state. His primary opposition was Barnes…….Barnes lost.

        • anewday says:

          Why must people make up stuff. He was by far not the only person in the pack that was a leading force in the conservative/Republican takeover. I believe that Austin Scott has been in the legislation since 1996. I think he has worked pretty hard to turn a minority into a majority. John Oxending was voted in in 1994. Same for Nathan Deal. Give me a break with throwing out generatlities. Just because your candidate says it does not make it true.

          • Tireless says:

            Oh please…..you have to be kidding if you want to compare Scott’s back bencher position with Johnson’s experience. Geez, Johnson involvement in politics began when Scott was in grade school. Ever heard of a guy named Mack Mattingly …. Johnson remembers him since he worked diligently on his campaign. How about Jack Kingston? Do you have any clue what Johnson did to help him get elected, and stay elected? Call Jack and ask him if you don’t know the answer to that question. I can’t seem to remember Scott, Deal or Ox battling Barnes and Taylor during the big shake up. I can’t seem to remember those guys doing much, if anything to help get Sonny elected as the first repub governor in over 100 years. It’s a joke to presume those guys are anything other than the direct beneficiaries of that hard work of Johnson and the other actual leaders in the legislature during the revolution that put repub’s in control of the state.

            Lastly, it is hysterical to read someone giving Ox credit for the repub takeover of this state. If you knew the truth, the vast majority of the repub legislature has avoided talking to that clown during his worthless time as Insurance Commissioner.

      • Ken in Eastman says:

        Seriously, Johnson could not pursue Bobby Kahn’s lazy accusations based on “common knowledge” and no proof.

        As for the other accusations, it pretty much shows he has spent time in the state legislature. You’re actually praising his experience.

        I don’t have a dog in this fight, but please make some actual points.

        • Dave Bearse says:

          What kept Johnson from looking into the matter unofficially/privately, where presumably “common knowledge” could be substantiatied. Evidently he’d rather go with a culture of corruption flow, than lead.

          • Ken in Eastman says:

            My understanding is that there are legal restrictions on exactly what that committee can do without real evidence. Also to be fair, legislators are citizens, too, and I get cranky when citizens’ rights are ignored – even if it’s a public official. “Common knowledge” without any evidence is probably not enough of a reason to officially investigate anyone.

            If you want to blame someone, blame Bobby Khan who filed the complaint without a shred of evidence and allowed Richardson to appear innocent when a stronger case might have gotten us a much better Speaker back then.

          • Dave Bearse says:

            Tolerance of corruption is fine and well in Eastman when an ethics complainant is blamed because complainant didn’t present sufficient evidence in concerning egregious ethics breach.

            Again, “What kept Johnson from looking into the matter unofficially/privately, where presumably “common knowledge” could be substantiated?” If Johnson were truly a leader, he’d have led.

            Turn it all around, and what would you be saying about the chairman of the Georgia GOP if in 2000 the chairman had filed a complaint concerning Murphy, only to have Murphy’s wife substantiate it two year later?

            Pffffft.

          • ready2rumble says:

            Ken,
            Handel didn’t have the legal authority to get Sheriff Barrett out of office. True leaders do the right things and make things happen.

          • macho says:

            Great point. If Bobby had come forth with some evidence, and not gossip, we could have avoided all the Richardson problems.

          • Ken in Eastman says:

            Dave,

            So if Johnson were truly a leader he’d have not followed the laws restricting his role?

            Perhaps you should have made a “citizens arrest”.

            In Eastman those of us who are Republicans like the idea of following the law. Then if we don’t like the law, we try to change it. We prefer that to gestapo or KGB.

            Glenn Richardson is a politician who acted like a sleaze but he is a citizen. He does have rights.

          • Dave Bearse says:

            Since when is asking around, and then trying to do something breaking the law? (And if he had he’d be making hay but the fields are bare.) Or is filing a complaint without sufficient supporting information insurance that a Johnson won’t pursue a matter.

            “Turn it all around, and what would you be saying about the chairman of the Georgia GOP if in 2000 the chairman had filed a complaint concerning Murphy, only to have Murphy’s wife substantiate it two year later?”

            I’ll believe you if you say you improperly supported accusations are lazy, and the Dems would be upholding the rule of law in not pursusing the matter, and the Chairman of that Ethics Committee would be a good choise to lead ethics improvements in Georgia.

  5. Doug Deal says:

    I said yesterday that Ox did not understand fancy dancy concepts like margin of error. Addition and subtraction are for math brainiacs not cool yacht captains who like sipping virgin martinis dockside after peppering a friend on a private hunt on a complete stranger’s property. When you are governor and need to make plans to call out the national guard to enforce gasoline rationing, no one has time for things like math anyway.

  6. John Konop says:

    In fairness to OX this poll shows him slipping even before his really bad week. From a PR stand point OX needed something to shore up his base support. And after last week this is probably the best he had to stop the bleeding from last week. In all seriousness it is not easy when wheels come off the bus while driving!

    • Keep in mind, according to Echols this was done this week. So these numbers are post shooting, or one would assume that is what Echols is trying to assert.

      I imagine in a week or two when that story has circulated more, and had he been at the debate the numbers would show more slippage.

  7. ChiefofStaff65 says:

    OX is a tool. When I watch him, I think, tool.

    Ethical Issues? Check.

    Pandering to whatever cause of the moment will get him votes? Check.

    Campaign Staff Issues? Check

    The support of ZERO legislators who he will need to work with in order to get his great vision passed? Check.

    Actually hired Brian Laurens? Check.

    ………and the beat goes on….

    • eschristian says:

      Ox literally shot himself in the foot – oops – shot someone else almost in the foot? Check.

      Love your post ChiefofStaff65 – great points – those pesky ethic charges will bite you in the rear every time – guess Ox will be the one with his “pants on the ground, looking like a fool with his pants on the ground” before long!!!

  8. polisavvy says:

    I couldn’t agree more. As someone so eloquently posted here yesterday, he seems to ultimately fail at everything — UGA fan, hunter, average Joe wannabee.

  9. Republican Lady says:

    Ox is hoping the fact he says continously he is in the lead in the news media will stick in people’s minds, because if the news media prints or says it enough, it must be true. It’s similar to, “That’s not my baby” (John Edwards), “I never had sex with that woman” (Bill Clinton), I’m was walking the Appalachian Trail” (Mark Sanford), “I didn’t know I had outstanding bad checks” (Sharon Barnes Sutton ), “I’m not friends with Mr. Yancey” or “The shooter was an adult” (John Oxendine). Need I go on?

    Voters are angry, especially the unemployed ones, and they are watching and listening closely to what people say. Look at the Mark Brown upset. Abraham Lincoln is to have said, “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”

    Take heed Ox. Make Karen the dark horse and she will pass you like the tortoise did the hare.

    • rugby says:

      “That’s not my baby” (John Edwards), “I never had sex with that woman” (Bill Clinton), I’m was walking the Appalachian Trail” (Mark Sanford), “I didn’t know I had outstanding bad checks” (Sharon Barnes Sutton ), “I’m not friends with Mr. Yancey” or “The shooter was an adult” (John Oxendine).”

      One of those is not like the other. Can you spot the difference?

      • Republican Lady says:

        The point is to show that unethical people can be found at every level of government, local, state, and federal and that voters need to make the best use of their vote. Sutton had an opportunity to cry “financial identity fraud” but didn’t take it, she just paid the checks off to make the issue go away.

        It it clearer now?

    • Mozart says:

      You think unemployed people are watching the GOP primary race right now? You think THAT is on their minds?

    • Ken in Eastman says:

      Abraham Lincoln is to have said, “You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”

      Unfortunately, you only have to fool 50% +1 of the people every election cycle and history has shown that’s pretty freakin’ easy (e.g. Barack Hussein Obama; James Earl Carter, Jr; Roy Barnes; etc.).

  10. Technocrat says:

    At least all this info [normal human faux pas] is out before the people SELECT OX as their new Governator. What you get is what you get——–No Surprises.

    Tell me again who besides me hasn’t had a wreck or ticket in the past 25 years. Tell me who wasn’t had a drink or two or smoked

    After 8 year of boredom with Sonny a little drama is welcomed.

    Who says Governors need to be morally better than the average voter, what a crock.
    We can’t let Mass, NJ, NY, CA get all the national news weekly.

  11. Progressive Dem says:

    For entertainment value, I’m hoping for McBerry to drop down and run for Lt. Guv and for the Ox to win the nomination. Now that’s funny. I don’t care who you are.

  12. I don’t really find fault with the Ox-bashing. In fact I agree with much of it.

    I don’t really find fault with all the analysis posted by Icarus or others, about factors which could lead to Ox’s downfall. In fact I agree with much of it.

    What I DO find fault with is “spin” that crosses the threshold of delusion. Look, whether you like him, hate him, or feel neutral toward him… Ox is the front-runner. He’s been the front runner for over half a year now, and the numbers haven’t significantly moved at all. He is, in point of fact, the only Republican polling above Roy Barnes head-to-head. He is, in point of fact, winning the most county party straw polls… which involve the hardcore crowd that does pay attention to the primaries early on.

    Yes, straw polls are not a good predictor of the ballot box. Yes, that Barnes poll is tight and within the margin of error. Yes, maybe all the other polls will shift as more casual people start paying attention to the primaries. Maybe everything will be TOTALLY different come July. Hell, I expect that in one form or another they will be.

    However, like or not, Ox is the front-runner at this point in time by virtually every conceivable metric. I think it’s great that Peach Pundit isn’t happy with him being front-runner, and that Peach Pundit expects he won’t finish as front-runner. However, it IS the current state of things… and so it strains credibility past the breaking point when people make-believe otherwise. When every poll or fundraising disclosure is twisted around and presented as evidence of why he’s ACTUALLY a dark horse with no shot in six months.

    You all would sound far more credible and less Kool-Aid’y if you drop that last step… and simply say, “While Ox does appear to have the early lead, there are reasons to believe that he will fade down the stretch”. Stop making up nonsense about how his numbers are tanking, or some other candidate’s numbers soaring, or he’s completely lost the lead… when absolutely none of that is objectively true yet.

    • Doug Deal says:

      Sure, he is the frontrunner. However, if you ever watch any non major sports, like say bicycle racing or a marathon, there is often someone way out in front of the pack early. Newbies watching for the first time will hear commentators say that the pack will catch and drop the leader before the end of the race, but it seems improbable with such a big lead. That person is the “front-runner” in name only. The people who have been around know that the early front runner will get reeled in as he runs out of energy, hits a wall and crashes.

      Political races are the same way. Ox has hit a wall. He has max name recognition but has significantly lower than a majority of support. This means there are no voters out there that he can pick up by simply getting them familiar with him, it means he has to reconnect with those that have already formed an opinion and convince them they are wrong about him. This is extremely hard to do when you shoot yourself in the foot on a frequent basis. It is even more difficult when your son shoots another hunter on the land of a man you supposedly don’t know.

      Thus, he is going to be reeled in, caught and very likely lapped and embarrassed.

      • polisavvy says:

        Excellent post. I totally agree with you. I don’t get the mentality that who is number one today will be number one in July. That’s still a long way away. Plenty of time for several candidates to implode. Ox is starting his decline now.

  13. LoyaltyIsMyHonor says:

    I’ve decided that I will now vote for OX simply for the entertainment value. PP is much more amusing to read when there is an OX thread. I already know I won’t be able to take 4 t 8 years of Handel pimping threads. So OX it is. 🙂

  14. Technocrat says:

    That is the point. No matter who is Governator for the next 8 years things won’t change much for the poor or rich, the minorities, the illegals. Taxes and fees cannot be increased much. Employees cannot be cut without serious pain to the rest of us. Non educational state employees have been reduced down to < 77,000 [20,000+ are in Corrections]. Add in 43,000 full time educators and 36,000 partime educators and hopefully you see the problem.
    http://www2.census.gov/govs/apes/08stga.txt

    Other than educators GA state employees are the 7th lowest paid among the 50 states Lower than Alabama, North Carolina, or
    Tennessee………almost 20% lower than US average.

    • LoyaltyIsMyHonor says:

      Technocrat,
      Looking at your link I forget that some states have state-run liquor stores. New Hampshire comes to mind. They have 2 right off I-95. One on the Mass. border and the other on the Maine border. I’m sure there are others. They’re sales tax-free and the prices are competetive.

      I’d say that GA should think about setting some up bordering other states….but then again, this IS GA. Such an idea would drive the religious right looney.

  15. chloe says:

    I want to see a canditate that can stand up for conservative values: less government, lower taxes, personal repsonsibility and family values.

    • polisavvy says:

      I believe if you have an opportunity to read about all the candidates that you will find at least one who fits the bill for you. I am not advocating for one candidate or another because I think that people should make up their own minds and not be swayed one way or another by PP or any other site. As was seen in the election in the fall of ’08, people apparently did not research thoroughly enough and just went along with the flow. The end result is a situation that is not helping any of us very much. I do feel that there is at least one you could get behind.

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