Rasmussen polls potential general election for governor

Rasmussen is out with a new poll for Georgia showing head-to-head match ups between Roy Barnes, who has a wide lead in polls over his primary opponents, and three of the GOP hopefuls, Nathan Deal, Karen Handel and John Oxendine.

According to the toplines, the poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.5…so if I were a candidate on the GOP side, I wouldn’t send out a press release claiming that I’m the only candidate that can beat Roy Barnes

Barnes vs. Deal

Roy Barnes   43% 
Nathan Deal   42%
Other 7%
Undecided   8%

Barnes vs. Handel

Roy Barnes   43% 
Karen Handel   42%
Other 5%
Undecided   10%

Barnes vs. Oxendine

Roy Barnes 42%
John Oxendine   44% 
Other 6%
Undecided   8%

Interestingly, Rasmussen also polled Attorney General Thurbert Baker’s prospects against the trio. He didn’t get nearly as good of an outcome as “he trails each of the three Republicans by double digits.”

88 comments

    • Making Sense says:

      Johnson is not a viable candidate for Governor. He is a lower tiered candidate who happens to have raised a lot of money – nothing more.

      It’s time to pick one of the three.

      • BSMcElhaney says:

        What would make sense would be for you to take the socks off of your hands and feet and help your boss raise some money. 400k is not going to cut it. A viable candidate for governor doesn’t have a burn rate close to 60%.

      • Ken in Eastman says:

        Making Sense,

        I disagree. I would not write off Eric Johnson or Austin Scott at this point. They both did well during the debate and there is time for either to make a move.

        Jeff Chapman may have problems because the debate was the first opportunity for many Georgians to see him and he did not do as well as he might have done.

  1. janna says:

    Ox’s stock has fallen with the hunting incident..even with his supporters. It would be interesting to see how he stacks up in a poll taken next week.

  2. AubieTurtle says:

    It’s good for the Republicans and bad for the Democrats that Oxendine has exposed his flaws so early. Well, maybe… the primary is still far away so none of the gaffs will be fresh news. Then again, what are the chances he’s not going to continue to embarrass himself?

    • Making Sense says:

      Yeah, Barnes is hoping that republicans are stupid enough to nominate ox. I guess his second wish would be deal.

      I wonder if the gop will be smart or stupid?

    • Mayonnaise says:

      I imagine the stated “Democrat” and “Republican” before each of the choices. “The Republican” Glenn Richardson probably would have recieved 40% in the poll.

  3. kim000 says:

    If its Barnes v. Ox, I would put my money on Barnes. He’s a known commodity and a familiar face (meaning it will be more difficult for Ox or the GA GOP to define him as just another Democrat), and I think Barnes is a better natural campaigner than Ox. Not to mention that the GOP has given Barnes a lot of material to work with over the last 8 years. Mostly, though, I just don’t trust Ox as a candidate; watching Ox I just can’t help but feel that a mega gaffe is coming.

    • Making Sense says:

      I suspect that if the GOP put’s up a status quo candidate out of the legislature or Washington, DC, Barnes wins. There is just too much you can point to. You put several million dollars EARLY behind the message, and the GOP candidate never catches up. The same could be said, really, about any of the GOP candidates, but there is more to trash to tarnish the Capitol or DC candidate.

      Ox is in a world of his own. He’s completely unelectable in a general election, unless of course you just like Rod Blagovich politics in your state.

    • polisavvy says:

      Barnes has his own issues to deal with come election time. His stand on education was not well-received, and how can anyone forget “Barnes’ Yellow Streak” flag issue? He may have some ammunition against the GOP; but, rest assured, they have ammunition against him (some widely known, others not so well-known that will be divulged at the appropriate time).

    • Icarus says:

      Gee Steve, I guess if the election were held tomorrow, you may have a point.

      It’s not, it’s in July.

      That’s when the polls matter. Today’s polls are a measure of name ID, and nothing more.

      And when Ox has a 90% name ID, but gets 28% of the vote in the primary, even the uninterested voters realize there’s a problem with him.

      Handel and Deal are next in name ID, with roughly 50% of Republican voters, yet they’re within a point or two of Ox.

      Johnson and Scott have much lower name ID, and both are concentrated outside of metro Atlanta. It will cost a lot of money, or they will have to generate a lot of earned media to raise that.

      Johnson has the money. Austin is finally generating earned media.

      Ox, also, is generating a lot of earned media. All of it negative.

      Keep mocking us for remaining consistent in our thought processes. I’m sure we’ll save a few of your quotes and revisit them in July.

      • (shrug) Hey, I picked the Chargers to win the Super Bowl, too. As with the Ox, I didn’t particularly care about that team or WANT them to win necessarily… and it didn’t break my heart when things went the other way when the chips were down. However, the handful of people predicting a Jets victory months-out were still being NUTS at the time… even if the nutty ended up happening.

    • AubieTurtle says:

      I simply don’t think that Ox has staying power. His miscues are accumulating. Right now the public isn’t paying very much attention. The wildcards to me are whether or not he can stop being his own worst enemy and if so, can the other canidates make issues that broke months ago stick. I think he gets roasted to death in the primary but am quite willing to admit I could be wrong. I never thought W would make it through the GOP field but he did.

      • Icarus says:

        The other candidates won’t have to do the heavy lifting. He made no friends with his attempt to blame the lib’ral media for making him illegally launder $120K from Yancey. You know, the guy he barely knew when that story broke, but was hunting with this weekend when he and/or his kids shot a guy.

        He’s the media’s dream candidate. A gift that keeps on giving, and who keeps giving them motivation to cover every possible horrible angle he can provide.

        • AubieTurtle says:

          It appears that Oxendine just doesn’t get nuance. He tries to make himself out to be a UGA fan but is so clumsy about it, he lets everyone know he doesn’t have the slightest clue. He tries to make everyone think he’s an outdoorsman and screws that up. He tries way too hard at these things trying to get the stereotypic image in place when he could do so without using a sledgehammer. Even the liberal media message, which should play really well in Georgia, has backfired on him. He really needs to chill out and stop trying to sculpt his image so much.

      • BuckheadConservative says:

        Icarus has a point. If Ralph Reed taught us anything, it’s that Jim Galloway loves a sharp axe. If he’s got one, he’s gonna grind it. And grind it, and grind it, and grind it, and gr…..

  4. mitchmartin says:

    That same poll put Gov Perdue’s approval rating at 58 percent with disapproval of just 40. I know, I know, you guys hate him … blah, blah, blah. But 58 percent is pretty strong considering how much bad news he has had to announce over the past 2 years.

    • AubieTurtle says:

      Perdue hasn’t done much of anything, including things that make people hate him. Other than double crossing the flaggers most of the criticism of Sonny relates to his land deal (which is small potatoes in the scandal realm), Go Fish (people claim to hate pork but as much as we mock it, Go Fish hasn’t outraged the populous), and his do nothing solutions. While do nothing has allowed many problems to fester and get worse, it just doesn’t get people’s blood up the way just about any proposed solution to a problem would.

    • Harry says:

      58 percent approval for any governor after 7 years is awesome. It means Perdue’s support among Republicans and independents is 90+%. I hate to break it to you pundits, most of you are out of touch with the mainstream.

      • B Balz says:

        I like Governor Perdue.

        Seems like few here have been down to his little ol’ office in the Capital or they’d seen all those model KIA motorcars.

        The multi-gajillion dollar KIA plant opened today, Mr. Truett Cathy got the first car off the line. JOBS JOBS JOBS.

        That plant represents a huge win for Georgia. The Governor in any State can only do so much.

        Give the man his due, already.

        • Ken in Eastman says:

          Yes, indeed.

          Perdue is not perfect, and anyone who pays attention knows he has done some things with which I strongly disagree, but he has also done some good things and deserves credit for those.

          • polisavvy says:

            I agree. He’s definitely not the worse governor Georgia has ever had — think Jimmy Carter. I personally like the man.

          • AubieTurtle says:

            What SPECIFICALLY did Jimmy Carter do as governor that was so bad? I’m not asking about his presidency but his governorship since that’s what you made comment on. And if he was such a terrible governor, in your mind one of the worst, how is it that he got elected President? I can’t just be the Watergate hangover since there were many others who could have filled that spot instead of the worst governor Georgia ever had.

            Seriously, it is ok once in a while to take off the partisan blinders. Neither the right nor the left are so huge that they can afford to continue to look like complete loons to the oh so hated squishy center. Neither side is the majority of the voters, hate to tell you.

            Specifics, my friends, I want specifics on the worst governor of Georgia of all time and specifics on how the fooled an entire nation into voting for him. Specifics! Lots of them! Bold statements require strong proof.

          • polisavvy says:

            Well, since I feel as though I should defend myself, let me tell you that I voted for him as Governor and, a little known history, I worked in the Peanut Brigade when he ran for President. I believe I had earlier said that I was young, uninformed, and stupid. Having said that, other than merging government agencies, and doing what all governors should do, help make sure there are equal funds for all schools (regardless of ethnic makeup), what else did he do?

            Being a crazy pro lifers that I am, he supported legalized abortion. He also had a substantial amount of money allocated for the education of criminals, which, in my opinion (of which I am entitled to have), is a waste of money considering the repeat rate. UFO sightings? Really?

            I guess, as I said earlier, being impressionable, I was blinded to reality. And, unfortunately, I have developed my strong feelings since he came out of the Presidency because of his constant yammering around the world, to foreign countries, about the shortcomings he views sitting Presidents to have. It’s never a good thing to do that. Maybe I sound harsh to you; however, that’s how I feel and I am entitled, right? JMHO.

          • polisavvy says:

            Aubie, just so you know, I am 55 years old and I am relatively new to the whole Republican thing. The first Republican I ever vote for was “W”. Don’t hold it against me, please. 🙂

          • AthensRepublican says:

            His costly reorganization of state government. He deserves no awards or accolades for his tenure as Governor.

          • polisavvy says:

            That’s the point I was trying to make; however, some people want to get on Carter’s “life support” team.

  5. Mozart says:

    Pump-up your heroine (Karen Handel) all you want. Trouble is headed her way that will be quite unexpected by everyone.

    • Republican Lady says:

      Like what? Are you claiming inside information that you want people to beg you to reveal or are you trying to get people to think you know something you don’t?

    • polisavvy says:

      Mozart, she is not the only one. There is trouble a brewing for more than just her from what I have heard.

  6. Cameron Crazy says:

    I know knocking Karen will not be popular here 0n http://www.pundit“electkaren”.com but here we go anyways…

    Lets start with Money- depending on how much media buys are these days Karen Handel might not even have enough money to make one statewide media buy. Unless that is her lobbyiest heavy campaign team can twist some arms and raise some real cash. But she can always go get cash from her friends in the BUSH whitehouse right…and she claims she is not part of the good ole boy network?

    Oxendiane has money but is now using that money to pay hospital bills of his donors…lets see how long that last, he is done.

    Deal…well Deal’s high living tax and spend DC life style has come home to GA. He dropped in some polls even though he spent 800k. He is moving backward.

    Johnson…Well we have seen the disclosures. He has the money and will raise more. Once more he has money coming from diffrent parts of the state, not just north fulton, the 9th district, tifton, or insurance agents. Eric will have money for multiple media buys to let the voters know his message. Eric’s JOB’s message will get to the GA voters and he will climb in the polls and continues to build out his team. It is clear he has a plan and is sticking to it.

  7. G. Moxley Sorrel says:

    Deal – He is a product of 20 years in Washington. Do people really want someone from DC fixing Georgia’s problems in this anti-Washington environment? He has a high burn rate and has shown no movement in polls. He has ethical problems that could get worse, has been known to make gaffes and if you watched the debate he never answered any questions and has no charisma.

    Handel – Good name recognition, but has no ability to fundraise. Has hurt her fundraising ability by criticizing some of the very people that either give or help (legislators and lobbyists) campaigns raise money. Has a good professional campaign staff, but later might lack the ability to pay them or get her message out.

    Johnson – Has raised good amount of money, but will need to raise name ID. Did well in the first debate and has a competent campaign staff, unlike most of the other candidates. Jobs message might resonate with voters.

    Oxendine – Only positive thing is high name ID and has raised a lot of money. Gaffes, ethical problems and the most incompetent campaign staff out there are negatives.

    The others – Doesn’t really matter because they have no money or name ID and aren’t likely to get either barring 3 out of the 4 above candidates either getting out of the race or falling dramatically in the polls.

    • polisavvy says:

      Wow. Last time I checked it is January 22 and the election is July 20 (which is six months away). A lot can happen in six months. The mighty could fall. To write off the remaining candidates because of lack of name recognition or money seems a tad premature. I don’t recall Sonny Perdue being a household name when he ran. Granted he had money; but, considering how the economy is at the present, there are some people who will vote for someone who tries to actually get their vote by campaigning for it and not buying it. Money can be raised. Name recognition can be achieved. Six months away is a pretty good amount of time for both to happen to the candidates who were not mentioned.

  8. ChiefofStaff65 says:

    What many of you have not taken into consideration is legislative support that will be HUGE after Session.

    It looks like Scott has the backing of Jan Jones and Donna Sheldon, based on his press release of a town hall with her last night and a donation from Jones. Also, it appears many legislators are now free to openly support a candidate of their choice. I would venture that Scott has more than a few legislators that support him, as well as Johnson. I have not gleamed Handel of Deal’s contribution records but I would venture Deal has a few Na. Ga and Handel has what, one or two that I have seen.

    These legislators that openly support can bring a lot of votes from their districts, especially ones that are committee chairs. If the people in power under the Gold Dome are backing a candidate, you can bet the folks behind the scenes in the chambers and others groups are watching.

    So far Oxendine has not had ONE legislator support him. Talk around other places in they would not want to see Handel at all. Johnson and Scott by far would have the best relationships with the current legislature that we have in place at the moment.

    Just my nickel’s worth of thoughts.

    • ByteMe says:

      Given our frat-house legislators’ low standing in public opinion, is this really the measurement you want to use?

      • polisavvy says:

        Not all in the Georgia legislature have a “frat-house” mentality. Broad brushstrokes are not just or evenhanded.

        • ByteMe says:

          Go fight public opinion. People’s approval of Congress is in the low 20’s, but individual representatives keep getting re-elected.

          • polisavvy says:

            True; but, it’s also true that not everyone in politics (either democrat or republican) is crooked or dishonest. I know to hear an “honest or ethical politician” is kind of an oxymoron; but, there are good and decent people who serve us on a daily basis. Unfortunately for those good politicians, the old expression “If you lie with dogs, you get fleas,” seems to be the opinion that people have and they seem to want to overlook the fact that there are good people still in government. That’s the only point I was trying to raise.

    • John Konop says:

      ChiefofStaff65,

      I have talk to a few legislators about this race and many seem to give out moderate endorsement at best. I sense they are playing it save wondering about how the dust will settle.

  9. ChiefofStaff65 says:

    Bill Stephens was a candidate who did not resonate with most people…thanks for the implied sarcasm but I think we are looking at two different candidates….one that is actually resonating with people……

    Ask Bill Stephens how much HUGE support he has at this moment….is he actually running?

    Thanks NorthGAGOP. Next please.

  10. Technocrat says:

    Don’t you people realize that the last person on Earth the Legislators want for Governor is the OX!

    They have abused him for 16 years [budgets] now he will expose them all for what they really are.
    He may not even run for a second term but he will raise HELL under the Gold Dome.

  11. kolt473 says:

    I cant vote for barnes based on the flag and teachers, he’ll sell out again given the right opportunity. Support of Kasim Reed Barnes payback for votes plus any deal made between Barnes&Reed, I’ll support the former Secretary of State, as for ethics good luck, 40 plus years living here, I’ve yet to see ethics that work like congress one helluva joke.

  12. Romegaguy says:

    Why didnt they poll McBerry? We all know that the voters flock to him and he has won all of the made up straw polls…

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