I have dug into Bill Hembree’s district and I think he may need to reconsider running for Speaker.
Let’s admit that he will be target number 1 for the Democrats were he Speaker and, frankly, may be target number 1 anyway. His district demographics contrary to a number of reports are trending terribly for the GOP.
He will have a black voter registration (not VAP, REGISTRATION) of close to 40% by election time next year. I think that’s almost an un-winnable district.
Bill has the highest number of black voters of any GOP-held House district in the state per December 2009 data from the Secretary of State.
That’s why Bill’s district voted for Obama and Jim Martin in 2008.
Hembree’s district’s overall black voting percentage has more than doubled from 16% to 34% – in just the last 3 years. This district is going away from the GOP in dramatic fashion and may be virtually un-winnable by 2010.
Not a single Republican House member in a district with over 30% black population won re-election in 2008 if they had a qualified Democrat challenger (Tumlin, Freeman, Heard), except for David Knight who was running against a convicted felon that still got 44% of the vote – and Hembree is likely to face a 40% black registration by the time he runs in 2010, making it almost impossible for him to win if targeted by the Dems.
If Hembree were to win the Speaker’s race, he would be the most powerful GOP legislator in the most vulnerable seat in Georgia. Aside from the political difficulty he would have in doing his job, it is virtually inconceivable that were he to survive election next year that the Obama Justice Department would allow us to redraw the district of a white Republican speaker to reduce his black population enough to make him safe under the “non-retrogression” principle. Hembree might already be doomed by the changes in his district, but it seems more likely than not that he would be doomed by 2012.
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Wow! Guess we need to tell Jill Chambers, Katie Dempsey, Rich Golick(who happens to be running for Speaker pro-tem) , Clay Cox and others in marginal or majority performing Dem districts to just quit because the numbers aren’t to their liking. Certainly don’t run for leadership, because Eric doesn’t think you should. Please with the manure and lets talk about substantive things not abstracts and such.
How can you be speaker and be from a 40% black district? He won’t be able to campaign for anybody, and he won’t be able to preside effectively because he’ll always have to worry about his own election rather than making the tough decisions a speaker has to make to protect the members on the floor.
And there’s a difference between being in a competitive district and being in a district with more black voters than any other GOP-held district in Georgia.
The Democrat demise in the House started when Tom Murphy was defeated. Why would we as Republicans choose a speaker who seems destined to be defeated and give the Dems such a big victory?
Tom Murphy was an old goat and couldn’t walk his own district. That’s how he got defeated!
Uh, ok. That wasn’t my point.
My point was the Democrat collapse in the House can be dated to the defeat of Tom Murphy.
Ironically today is the 2nd anniversary of the “old goats” passing. Murphy got beat for several reasons:
1. He could have drawn his district a “safer” district before the election that he lost, but chose not to because it would have negatively impacted another member’s district.
2. Paulding County, which he represented, had experienced a rapid spurt of GOP led growth and most were straight ticket voters, so it really would not have mattered had he walked it or not. The numbers changed on him.
3. There are a number of highways and buildings around Atlanta that recognize the accomplishments of the “old goat”. He led the state during a time when the rural dominated legislature didn’t want to give Atlanta a dime, but he realized that as Atlanta went, so went the state.
Check it out some time….
P.S. He was also a widower so none of the recent stuff in the media applied….
By Zeus’s beard, politicalwidow, you’re wisdom is unrivaled by any here on this board.
You should be nicer than that to a lady, Jack…
Who said he’s not nice to ladies?
politicalwidow, pay no attention to Jack or his Post.
Who said she’s a lady?
By Zeus’ toes, J, it is your own wisdom which is unrivaled for calling out the wisdom of PoliticalWidow! Onward sir!
Sockpuppet.
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I’ve learned a lot over the past couple of weeks here reading about the Speaker’s election.
Most of it has been about Erick.
Yep…anytime Erick posts here it’s to forward the interests of one of his political allies. But hey, it is his blog.
OK, Erick is in relapse.
Let’s hope it is momentary.
First, we must take this party back, sir, then we resume our delusions about the “good old days” of Delay, Bush, and Rove.
Erick is just taking a final opportunity to publish the Jerry Keen talking points memo. Sounds like someone is worried about Hembree beating out O’neal for 2nd place.
“I have dug into Bill Hembree’s district and I think he may need to reconsider running for Speaker.”
Of all the juicy scandals floating around we get stuck with this simpleton who doesn’t even have a harem yet…….how dull, boring and not conducive to future controversy………i just knew he was going to say something like, “a lot of chillun in that district look like ole bill”……
That’s Erick… leadership by always remaining one step ahead of the parade route.
Here’s a thought. Instead of the Republican Party running away from non-white voters, why not compete for their votes? This country is trending majority black and brown; and unless the Georgia GOP has information that Georgia is going to be a “white paradise” in a brown and black country, they may want to stop acting as if a 40% black district is a plague to be avoided and looked down upon.
fwiw- a LOT of republicans voted for Martin as well…
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