I’ve written a post before on runoffs that analyzes the history in Georgia, but can’t find it.
The gist is that if the first place winner in a runoff won within 5% of the second place finishers, the 2nd place finisher almost always wins. [Ed. Note: I knew I should not say always here and did it anyway. As several people have pointed out, it should be “almost always, but not always.” Sorry about that.]
Between 5% and 7% the 2nd place person has the advantage, but the 1st place winner has a shot.
Between 7% and 10% the 1st place winner has the advantage, but the 2nd place winner has a very real shot.
At 10% and over, typically the 2nd place person might as well throw in the towel. I don’t know of any candidate to be 10% behind going into a runoff and winning.
Mary Norwood is at 9.44% ahead of Reed. That suggests to me that she still has the advantage going in to the runoff election. It is not, however, a done deal. With Roy Barnes and Lisa Borders’ endorsements of Kasim Reed, I think momentum is with him, though I also don’t think endorsements will help a lot.
He also does quite well at turning out the vote. That’s going to be the hard part for Norwood, I think. If i had to call the race today, I’d think Norwood could win. But within the next two weeks of Reed working on his ground game, that will probably change.