If the governor’s race isn’t already over except for the Republican bloodbath.

Things are very different than four years ago (or three… heck, two years ago). Lots of people who didn’t have a care in the world and didn’t want the nasty government getting in the way of their fun are now in the economic doldrums worried to death and asking big daddy government to help them out. Why do you think the Democrats chose this moment to push for government healthcare reform? At a time of high unemployment when so many are uninsured, they knew they’d get more support than at a time of full employment. The battlefield changes and only a poor general tries to fight using the same tatics in the mountains that they did on the beach.

If the economy is still gloomy in November of next year, all bets are off. Blaming Obama and Congress isn’t likely to swing as many votes to the GOP governor contender as the number of independents who will be in play for a smart campaign. That doesn’t mean that they’ll automatically go to the Democrats, just that there is a big squishy middle that will be in play. Perhaps now isn’t the best time to keep on with the purges.

As a bit of an aside, I’d switch Handel and Deal in your assessment but that’s just my opinion based on gut rather than a close examination of all of the various constituencies and who they’re likely to support.

BTW, anyone willing to give odds on someone other than Barnes getting the Democratic slot? While he is the elephant sized donkey in the room, is he really a slam dunk?

Winning campaigns, especially statewide in GA, is about two things. Turning your base out and capturing swing-voters. Roy’s, “I’m just a country lawyer who isn’t part of any division” rhetoric is obviously about capturing swing voters. But, if he can turn his urban Atlanta, high-population vote out by an extra 1 or 2%, it would greatly increase his chances of winning. Kasim, and the Jackson machine, would assumedly play a big role in Atlanta turnout.

Barnes has to walk a dangerous tight rope. Outside of Perimeter: “I’m just a good ol’ country lawyer, who is not really part of any political party and doesn’t really like Atlanta very much.” Inside of Perimeter: “I’m a lawyer who lives in a suburb so close to Atlanta it might as well be Atlanta, I’m a partisan, Obama loving Democrat and I’m Mayor Reed’s best buddy.” The trouble is when one group starts hearing the messages intended for the other group.

Even Obama and all his glory didn’t carry GA, he did better than Gore and Kerry, but still only got 47% of the vote. So Barnes needs to have an Obamaesque turnout in Atlanta and win over enough swing voters to push him over the 50%. Plus Barnes has already shown an ability to pick up some home-turf voters in metro Cobb County.

As a side note, if we end up with nutty Ox or birther, ghetto grandma Deal, it could repeal your typical North Fulton and Cobb GOP voters who would be put off by all the craziness.

In the end, assuming a Handel or Johnson victory, I think the GOP wins, Ox or Deal put the General in play.