I haven’t spent a lot of time around Peach Pundit in the past few weeks. I’ve had some serious family obligations and then there’s this from the Atlantic.

Erickson has made NY23 his mission. Erickson called the race “a Hill to Die On” for conservatives. He accused Scozzafava of “Funnel[ing] Campaign Cash to Family.” He slammed Newt Gingrich, Scozzafava’s most high-profile backer, writing, “Today Newt Gingrich Takes Himself Out of the 2012 Running […] Gingrich no longer wants to nor can he be seen as a conservative.” Erickson called for Scozzafava to withdraw and demanded new national GOP leadership. He even raised money for Hoffman. The wider conservative world took note, and soon endorsements for Hoffman rolled in from Sarah Palin, the Club for Growth, Steve Forbes, the Wall Street Journal, even sitting Congresswoman Michele Bachmann.

What was a small Congressional race in upstate New York has become all-out war among Republicans, one which Erickson’s grassroots movement seems to have won.


  1. ByteMe says:

    What was a small Congressional race in upstate New York has become all-out war among Republicans, one which Erickson’s grassroots movement seems to have won.

    Ya, I had heard the GOP ate their dead.

  2. DMZDave says:

    Please. Bloggers don’t really make anything their “hill to die on” do they? Indeed it’s really kind of tasteless for reporters to use those kinds of analogies when there really are soldiers in actual combat on hills to die on in Afghanistan. Why is it that REMFs just love to use the language of warfare to describe the non-lethal business of politics. Erick E isn’t dying on any hills, he blogging.

  3. What was a small Congressional race in upstate New York has become all-out war among Republicans, one which Erickson’s grassroots movement seems to have won.

    Or rather, after November 3, lost.

    • ByteMe says:

      Oh, it gets so much better:


      Douglas L. Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate for the 23rd Congressional District, showed no grasp of the bread-and-butter issues pertinent to district residents in a Thursday morning meeting with the Watertown Daily Times editorial board.

      In a nearly hour-long session, Mr. Hoffman was unable to articulate clear positions on a number of matters specific to Northern New Yorkers …

      Way to pick a hill to die on, Erick.

  4. Oh, please. This isn’t a “hill to die on”. This is a bunch of opportunistic politicians, talk radio loons, and bloggers trying to “make up” for McCain… pure and simple.

    None of these people had the balls to break ranks during the last election cycle… yet when the started Tea Parties gained steam (against THEM), they “got out in front of it” and acted like that’s where their hearts were all along. Everyone in the GOP sounds like a moderate Ron Paul now… which on one hand is nice, but on the other hand it’s hard to overlook that they were moderate Jerry Falwells just 18 months ago and will be wherever the action is in 18 months from now.

    Erick and all these other people quietly fell in line in ’08, and will quietly fall in line in ’10 and ’12. This lone congresscritter is just a small animal sacrifice to appease the gods, so they can feign some “street cred” or whatever.

    • ByteMe says:

      Watch how they try to spin EVERY ONE of these races as somehow a referrendum on Obama or health care or whatever is the topic of the moment that they want to appear to be “winning”.

    • John Konop says:

      Steve Perkins

      The real issue is the TEA PARTY is a joke! If they really were fiscal conservatives they would have been all over the GOP SENIOR BILL OF RIGHTS. We pay out 3 dollars for every 1 dollar we take in on Medicare. No one denies this is a train wreck bigger than any spending issue we have and the GOP proposes more spending as a solution!

      Second the Nation building foreign policy strategy is the second largest spending area. And the Tea Party movement supports the policy!



      Watch this and tell me is this movement about hate or balancing the budget?

      • “The real issue is the TEA PARTY is a joke! ” Yes and no. There are a lot of the problem that are participating to garner favor with a frustrated public. However, this is the first time since the 60’s you’ve really seen the protest movement organized virtually all over.

        The joke is, if these folks do nothing more than protest they are wasting their time. However, if voter registration forms and networks are built to GOTV in 2010, then the joke’s on them. I haven’t seen the latter, but I haven’t participated either. I’ve been participating in the capitalist free enterprise system and trying to recover my depleted 401(k) since the Bushies and the Obamas have and are creating policies that frustrate the stock market.

        Whoever is organizing these, ought to be really organizing them. It would put ACORN to shame.

        The healthcare issue is legitimate so is massive debt these folks are placing on us. Heck, I wonder if they really want this society to collapse… Destroying productivity and creating a welfare state is a sure way to do it.

      • seenbetrdayz says:

        Where did you hear that the Tea Partiers support nation-building?

        I’d say that their support for Auditing the Fed is a pretty big fiscal issue, but I also know that the Tea Party movement is quite diverse and there may have been some who are still caught up in Bush’s war.

        • The Tea Parties are part Big-L Libertarians, part small-L libertarians, part paleoconservatives, and part former-neocons who’ve suddenly seen the light now that the wind is blowing in a different direction. I don’t think there really is a consensus message out of all that soup other than, “Don’t Raise My Taxes”. I think Konop is projecting a wee bit on his Tea Party “plaftorm”… the only platform so far is “no”.

          • GOPGeorgia says:


            I watched the video and I think you are seeing what you want to see. Why don’t you go back and watch it again a few more times, with a , dare I say it, open mind!!!! aiiieee!!!!

          • seenbetrdayz says:

            I watched the clip. It looked like a classic MSM news panel dogpile on a person to make him look fringe.

            Anyway, John wants proof that Tea Party activists are not all full of hate and are not afraid to talk about the biggest fiscal issues:

          • seenbetrdayz says:

            Scratch that last link, it was just a really good speech about money.

            Here’s a tea party from Houston:

          • John Konop says:


            You think this is appropriate for the one of the leaders of the Tea Party movement?

            Cooper: Mark, what you’re saying makes sense to me here … but then I read on your blog, you say … you call the President an Indonesian Muslim turned welfare thug, and a racist in chief.

            Williams: Yeah!

            Cooper: Is that the kind of …

            Williams: That’s the way he’s behaving!
            Cooper: But … but …

            [David Gergen and James Carville start laughing in astonishment…]

            Williams: I mean if he cares to be the President of the whole country ….

            Cooper: Do you really believe he’s Indonesian? Do you really believe he’s a Muslim? Do you really believe he’s a welfare thug?

            Williams: I… I… he’s certainly acting like it.
            Gergen: You think he’s a racist in chief? Racist in chief? Is that what you call him? A racist in chief? It’s unbelievable.

            Williams: Until he embraces the rest of this country, what else can I conclude?

          • John Konop says:


            If you and your movement are REAL conservatives concerned about fiscal issues why no protest over the SENIOR BILL OF RIGHTS from the GOP which adds way more spending than the stimulus package? Do you think anyone who receives MEDICAE is socialist since they get 3 dollars for every 1 dollar they put in? And if you are a real fiscal conservative why do you not deal with largest most pressing issue by far to balancing the budget?

          • GOPGeorgia says:


            Please make up your mind. Do you want to talk about if the tea party movement focuses on fiscal issues or not? IMO, they are all about spending and the lack of control that goes along with it; that’s the focus of the tea party movement, not an individual. That should be up your alley if you had issues to champion. I think I’ve decided all you like to do is to complain.

            Do I agree with anyone calling the President names like “racist in chief?” Of course not. But someone please remind me, why did the President of the United States even talk about a confrontation between a professor and a police officer? What was his rational for calling the officer stupid? Why did the professor claim that the officer entered his property as a white police officer? Is there a way for that officer to enter as a Black, Asian, or Hispanic officer? I guess they can have a beer and decide to forget about it. I won’t.

          • ByteMe says:

            Reminder: he talked about it because he was asked in a press conference about his friend, Henry Gates, being arrested in his own home for being black and pissed off.

            Personally, I would think most of us would rather have friends like Obama who immediately think our side of the story is the right one when we get arrested.

          • John Konop says:


            The same question for you?

            If you and your movement are REAL conservatives concerned about fiscal issues why no protest over the SENIOR BILL OF RIGHTS from the GOP which adds way more spending than the stimulus package? Do you think anyone who receives MEDICAE is socialist since they get 3 dollars for every 1 dollar they put in? And if you are a real fiscal conservative why do you not deal with largest most pressing issue by far to balancing the budget?

          • John Konop says:

            As I said if the TEA PARTY was really about fiscal issues they would be all over Medicare!

            FROM DAVID WALKER!

            US Government Immorality Will Lead to Bankruptcy

          • GOPGeorgia says:


            You don’t get to ask me questions without answering mine first. Well, you can ask, but I’m going to give you the same consideration to your questions as you gave mine. I will state that I don’t agree with everyone in Washington with an “R” behind their name.

          • John Konop says:


            YOUR QUESTION

            Do you want to talk about if the tea party movement focuses on fiscal issues or not?

            I thought I was very clear about the Tea Party movement lack of focus on the real fiscal problems! WATCH THE VIDEO. And I was merely pointing out how the leadership spews out hatred while not focusing on real fiscal problems!

          • GOPGeorgia says:


            MY QUESTION

            Do you want to talk about if the tea party movement focuses on fiscal issues or not?

            Your answer: watch the video about David Walker.

            My reply, we aren’t talking about David Walker. I agree there are issues that need to be dealt with, but you haven’t shown me where the tea party movement, as a whole, is not concerned about run away spending in DC. Just because they don’t focus like a laser beam on the issues you want to talk about, that doesn’t make them not concerned with fiscal responsibility.

          • John Konop says:


            No one argues Medicare is the biggest current and future spending issue we have to deal with in our country! In about 10 years at our current rate if we do nothing our country will BK no matter what we do with budget. And for the Tea Party movement to ignore this issue as well as the GOP calling for increases, while Tea Party leaders make racist and hateful remarks demonstrates they are not serous about spending issues!

            As I said many times both parties have their head in the sand about this issue. And it would be great if the Tea Party movement embraced real fiscal conservative movements like the Concord Coalition. Yet that is not what they are doing!

            Medicare and Health Care


          • GOPGeorgia says:


            You can’t say that “No one argues Medicare is the biggest current and future spending issue we have to deal with in our country” if you are arguing it.

            I don’t think it’s accurate when you say “both parties have their head in the sand about this issue.” You were a GOP candidate for congress, so unless you are publicly announcing that you are NOT a Republican, you can’t say they Republican party is ignoring it.

            The Tea party movement is not a political party with a platform with issue planks that they want addressed separately. They are average folks who fed up within the spending in Washington and don’t like the direction that our country is going in. They aren’t GOP or Dem’s. they are just people wanting their voices heard. There are some fairtax people in there as well as people against Government run healthcare.

            If you don’t like the direction the GOP is going, then you should run for party office and fix it.

          • John Konop says:


            Just the facts!

            Politics Aside, Annual Medicare Fix Is Same Old Story

            ….New Hampshire Republican Senator Judd Gregg is among the opponents of the bill. “We’ve only done yearly fixes in this area, the doctor fix, because it’s a pretty difficult number to always pay for, but we have always paid for it,” he said on CNN last Sunday.

            Except that Congress hasn’t always paid for it. In fact, when Republicans were in charge, they did cancel the Medicare cuts to doctors, but rarely paid for them. Just before turning control of Congress back to the Democrats at the end of 2006, Republicans actually tucked legislation to cancel the next year’s doctor pay cut into a catch-all tax bill that wasn’t paid for either. And then-Senate Budget Committee Chairman Judd Gregg was one of the people who complained the loudest.

            “You just have to ask yourself how we, as a party, got to this point, where we have a leadership which is going to ram down the throats of our party the biggest budget buster in the history of the Congress under Republican leadership,” said Gregg back in 2006.

            Bipartisan Memory Loss…


          • John Konop says:

            As I said you and your movement (Tea Party) are blind to the real issues! Any real fiscal conservative would be all over this issue!

            U.S. Comptroller General David Walker Says Medicare Program Endangers Financial Stability

            “I would argue that the most serious threat to the United States is not someone hiding in a cave in Afghanistan or Pakistan but our own fiscal irresponsibility,” Walker tells Kroft.

            (CBS) Beginning next year, and for 20 years thereafter, 78 million Americans will become pensioners and medical dependents of the U.S. taxpayer.

            “The first baby boomer will reach 62 and be eligible for early retirement of Social Security January 1, 2008. They’ll be eligible for Medicare just three years later. And when those boomers start retiring in mass, then that will be a tsunami of spending that could swamp our ship of state if we don’t get serious,” Walker explains.

            To illustrate their impact, he uses a power point presentation to show what would happen in 30 years if the U.S. maintains its current course and fulfills all of the promises politicians have made to the public on things like Social Security and Medicare.

            What would happen in 2040 if nothing changes?

            “If nothing changes, the federal government’s not gonna be able to do much more than pay interest on the mounting debt and some entitlement benefits. It won’t have money left for anything else – national defense, homeland security, education, you name it,” Walker warns.

            Walker says you could eliminate all waste and fraud and the entire Pentagon budget and the long-range financial problem still wouldn’t go away, in what’s shaping up as an actuarial nightmare.

            Part of the problem, Walker acknowledges, is that there won’t be enough wage earners to support the benefits of the baby boomers. “But the real problem, Steve, is health care costs. Our health care problem is much more significant than Social Security,” he says.

            Asked what he means by that, Walker tells Kroft, “By that I mean that the Medicare problem is five times greater than the Social Security problem.”


          • GOPGeorgia says:

            Well, for starters the tea party is not my movement. I like how you ignore everything I post and ask the exact same questions or make the exact same points in a slightly different way.

            These ARE facts.

            Just because I don’t run around like a mad man screaming at the top of my lungs about the exact same issue that is on your mind at the moment, doesn’t mean I’m not a fiscal conservative or that I don’t agree with you on an issue. I know my limitations and I don’t have enough clout to get bills moved through congress. Most congressmen don’t either. Therefore I don’t harp and whine about things that are somewhat out of my control. It’s a team sport up there and it’s hard to get all the people on the same page, even if they are all in the same party.

            Your attitude that you are always right, know more than everyone else, and constant reminding of how you predicted this doom and gloom (of that day), not listening, and quick assumptions are things you need to work on.

            You are not making any friends or getting any closer to accomplishing anything other that getting sized up for a straight jacket.

            Would it make you feel better if we took a day and said “I agree with everything John Konop is about to say?”

          • John Konop says:


            That was a cheap shot. I was only making the point that this is our biggest fiscal concern and both sides are running away from the issue. And as a parent I do not want my kids to inherit this mess. If I seem very in your face about this issue it is merely based on the seriousness of it. I would hope more would scream about this issue like me instead of playing politics!

            Can you think of a bigger fiscal problem we face?

          • GOPGeorgia says:


            It’s a cheap shot when you ignore everything I say. If I were running for congress, I would be talking about illegal immigration, entitlements, and spending. All three of them are somewhat interconnected. Medicare, social security, and healthcare are all subdivisions perceived entitlements. People THINK they are owed something by the government, the government agrees, and that triggers automatic spending. Illegal immigrants run up the costs of health care, education, and other government services. I am no fan of TARP, bailouts, earmarks for silly projects (such as turtle walks) and giving money to countries that don’t like us.

            Until we stop spending money faster than we take it in, we are in trouble. I see how the commerce clause covers part of what we spend money on, but I think it’s pushed way too much to the point that some of it is unconstitutional. I’m not going to ramble on what I think the problems are unless I am going to fix them. I could go into more detail, but I don’t see the need. Right now, I am focused on sending someone to Washington from the Ninth who will do that for me.

          • John Konop says:


            Illegal immigration is a small part of the problem. The real issue with Medicare is we have been paying 3 dollars of service for every 1 dollar paid in by people using it. This works short term because of the ratio of Baby boomers to people who are retired. Medicare system has been growing liabilities in the future using this ponzi scam for years. This what Jimmy Hoffa went to prison for because other than the government it is illegal to do this. BTW we have this issue in many counties and states now.

            Also I do not support giving benefits to illegal immigrants but once again it is a small part of this problem as a ratio.

            Ask anyone you know who understands fiancé and or accounting and they will tell you cannot do your books this way it would be considered fraud in the real world!

  5. John Konop says:

    Erick should read this!!!

    Jeb Bush:GOP “old white guy party”?

    GWH….Bush said he believes the Republican Party needs to cater its message to include everyone in America, and become more than the “old white guy party.”

    “You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to realize that in order for a political party to be successful it has to reach out to everyone,” Bush said. “In politics, you never win when you say ‘us and them.’ We need a more welcoming message.”

    Bush added that his party needs to modernize and embrace 21st ideals and technology.

    “I sense that our party is kind of in a nostalgic mode where we look back to the good old days,” Bush said. “However good they were, and there were some good days, is completely irrelevant in 2009.”

    Bush discussed the need for reform in education, particularly the embracement of technology in the classroom. Bush said the Republicans need to lead the charge on education issues, as well as on energy policy, immigration policy and a foreign policy that defends America’s interests.

    “We just can’t be the party of no….



    • Jeff says:

      Technology in the classroom is a complete waste of money until student discipline is readily handled.

      For that reason, I cannot support it in public education, where students can assault teachers with absolutely no recourse, though I DO support it in private schools, where students toe the line on discipline or are shown the door.

      Of course, then there’s that whole “separation of school and state” thing…

      • Technology in the classroom is a complete waste of money until student discipline is readily handled.

        public education, where students can assault teachers with absolutely no recourse

        Number one, what in the blue hell are you talking about? Some school districts are worse than others, but there’s not a district in the nation where juveniles are immune from prosecution. You will never hear a D.A. or judge say, “Oh, you’re currently in PUBLIC school? Well why didn’t you just say so? Case dismissed!” You shoot from the hip a bit too much, Jeff.

        Number two, if disciplinary problems mean that a computer or PowerPoint projector would go to waste… why aren’t books and chalkboards also going to waste?

        • Jeff says:


          I was personally assaulted in my classroom back when I was a teacher, and nothing was done about it.

          That alone was the number 1 reason I left.

        • Jeff says:

          There is a MAJOR difference between what is on the books and what is actually done, particularly as it relates to violent crime in the schools post-NCLB.

          These days, if a student hits a teacher – no matter WHAT the reason, the teacher is automatically at fault, no matter what they did.

          Saw it in the classroom myself, still see it among my friends that are still in.

          Don’t you DARE tell me it doesn’t happen.

          • Why doesn’t anyone call the police?

            Speaking of police, back in college me and a friend were driving through Lee County on our way from Americus to Albany. Without having violated any traffic laws, we were stopped by a police officer… who made us get out of the car and lie face-down in the dirt beside the road for 20 min while he stood around and talked on his radio. About 10 minutes into this, my friend asked what was going on. The cop told him to shut up, and pulled a nickel bag of weed from his shirt pocket… saying that it would be easy to “find” this in the car if we said another word. After awhile, he just told us to get in the car and leave. No ticket, no clue what that was all about. My friend went to the police station the next day to complain, and nothing ever happened.

            Something bad occurred for me personally with a police encounter. Clearly, police departments should be eliminated statewide. I mean, that’s just simple logic.

          • Jeff says:

            The simple answer as to why noone calls police is two fold:

            1) Because they want to keep their jobs. Teachers do NOT have tenure, and a principal can choose to not renew a contract for any reason whatsoever.

            2) Because the first thing the cops are going to ask is “well, what did the school say/do about the incident”. If the school didn’t do anything, neither will the cops.

        • Donna Locke says:

          I am very familiar with teachers who were assaulted by elementary school students, even kindergarten students, in Marietta, GA, and suffered serious and permanent damage to their bodies. No child left behind, remember? No matter how violent.

          Here in my Tennessee town, we have controversy over an elementary school student with learning and behavioral disabilities, “oppositional defiant disorder,” or however they choose to term it, and the teacher’s decision to put the kid in an isolation room without his clothes except underwear until the parent came for him, after the child tried to attack the teacher and harm himself as well. This wasn’t the first time.

          I don’t agree with putting the kid in the room or with the existence of the room. My position is, I don’t think kids like this should be in regular classrooms or schools to begin with. They should not be mainstreamed with other kids. Depending on the disability, in some cases mainstreaming does help the kids with special needs to be pulled forward by the other kids, but it also, more than than not, is a disproportionate occupier of the teachers’ attention and a drag on the education of the more mainstream kids, particularly the gifted, who really lose out in this scenario.

  6. macho says:

    “In politics, you never win when you say ‘us and them.’”

    Isn’t “us and them” page one from the Democrat playbook.

  7. macho says:

    The problem is, most states don’t have runoffs, so you end up with candidates the appeal to a minority of the population. When Corizine wins reelection in NJ, Obama and company will be touting it as affirmation of Obama’s great policies, when in reality it’s because 2 candidates were splitting the GOP vote. Same thing is going to happen in NY-23.

    My guess is this attitude will ensure Obama is reelected in 2012. While Obama is obviously vulnerable, there is a segment of the population that feels the GOP is too liberal (which I tend to agree with). There is a huge voting block that is very rebellious. They’ll view whoever the GOP nominee is as too moderate (which I don’t agree with). The timing will be ripe for a strong independent candidate. Unfortunately, in this country, a strong independent run will be 3 – 5% of the vote and Obama will sail to victory with 46% of the general election vote. And instead of being pissed Romney or Jindal didn’t lower the tax rate a few more percentage points, Obama will be completing our descent into socialism, complete with asset confiscation to fund his massive list of government programs.

    I don’t normally agree with the slash and burn, conservative candidates only attitude, but in the case of NY-23, she really is extremely liberal. At some point, when the candidate is so far off the GOP reservation, you have to ask yourself, “What difference does it make?”

  8. slyram says:

    I personally see the NY race as an indicator for how the GOP will select candidates for 2010: pick those who can win or pick those most like the base. A candidate needs part of the center to win in swing congressional districts. Newt knew that and Pelosi learned it from him. A far-right candidate will have a slim chance against Rep. Barrow and Rep. Marshall and less of a chance against Georgia’s other House Blue Dogs. But, I respect that “Don’t Back Down” mentality; it’s similar to those who did not want to patiently wait for civil rights. If it’s right, it’s just right. But, what happens when the majority of voters felt differently.

    John Konop: Jeb Bush is so correct about building a winning political party—it takes diversity and a little flexibility. Everyone with half a brain knows Blacks would vote for a less bitter Black congressional candidate who is just as conservative as Kingston and Linder but not as vocal as Broun. These same Blacks currently vote for Blue Dogs they view as moderate or conservatives so voting for a Black GOP candidate could happen. But, such a candidate can’t get out of the primary. Pick candidates who can actually win because the center currently feels more comfortable with the Democrats and are starting to better appreciate the Blue Dogs efforts to add a certain amount of restraint to policies rather than waiting for failure.

  9. rugby says:

    Wow. And I thought Democrats were good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

    Here Republicans are willing to kill a victory just to prove…well…something I suppose.

    Just a question: when was the last time purging people from a group ever worked out well?

    • John Konop says:


      Interesting article making your point!

      Big tent or ‘blurring the lines’? Reagan words, meaning drive GOP debate

      THEHIL-…..Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) has staked her claim to the latter, arguing that Reagan advocated against “blurring the lines.” She said courting Democratic and independent voters is the wrong way to go. As a way to make her point, Palin endorsed Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman over Republican Dede Scozzafava for the New York House seat.

      “Political parties must stand for something,” Palin wrote in a note on her Facebook page Thursday evening. “When Republicans were in the wilderness in the late 1970s, Ronald Reagan knew that the doctrine of ‘blurring the lines’ between parties was not an appropriate way to win elections.

      “Unfortunately, the Republican Party today has decided to choose a candidate who more than blurs the lines, and there is no real difference between the Democrat and the Republican in this race. This is why Doug Hoffman is running on the Conservative Party’s ticket,” Palin wrote.

      Part of Reagan’s success was found by reaching out to “Reagan Democrats”, who defected from their party in the 1980 and 1984 presidential elections.

      Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who has made moves in recent months to suggest he will seek the party’s presidential nomination, seemed more open to that idea.

      He refused to endorse a candidate in the New York race, saying he had not followed the race closely enough to make a pick.
      But Pawlenty did make a point on Thursday to cite Reagan’s assertion that someone who agrees with the party on four out of five issues is 80 percent a friend, not 20 percent an enemy…..


  10. yellowb says:

    Quick question. Will this election go to a runoff since nobody will gain 50%+1, or is it just the one round?

  11. rugby says:

    I’m actually starting to think Erick &c. might be on to something.

    It appears that Democrats refuse to do anything their party might stand for and instead are more or less willing to capitulate to Republicans on most things. So then why not create a hyper-conservative GOP? That way you can have the ideological purity they desire and they can control the shots in D.C. advancing their own conservative message, without having to shoulder the responsibility of being the party in charge.

    Ladies and gentlemen, we are watching what is perhaps the most brilliant political strategy of all time. Republicans may be able to have their cake and eat it too.

  12. Doug Deal says:

    Some interesting facts:

    The Democrats control 69 House seats in which the partisan alignment is Republican by +1 or more. The Democrats hold 18 Sentate seats in which the state has a partisdan alignment of Republican by +1 or more. To put that another way, if the Republicans could only hold their own partisan districts, they would have a fair majority in the House and a huge, almost super majority in the Senate.

    The Republicans, for their part have 7 House seats with a Democratic partisan ranking and 3 Sentate seats in states with a Democratic partisan ranking. In other words, the Dems hold their seats.

    Is this because the Republicans select “too many moderates” or is this because only the farthest right fringe on issues like abortion and gays will do, no matter the district?

    • GOPGeorgia says:

      IMO, it depends on the District. It’s a case by case situation. Republicans in New England are much more moderate than those in the south. Contrary to popular belief, and speaking for myself, I’ve never gone into a backroom with GOP leadership and said “that’s our candidate.” in a contested GOP election. Disclaimer, I’ve never done that while I considered myself GOP leadership and haven’t had that discussion with people that I consider GOP leadership. I have picked sides in contested primaries, it’s just been a while.

      IMO, voters in the primary decide who gets to be the nominee and voters in the general decide who wins. I know Georgia Right to Life and other groups may weigh in on a primary, but is there an organized group that openly condemns gays other than churches that is active in Georgia?

    • ByteMe says:

      I’m curious: how does this square with the recent poll showing only 20% of the country self-identifies as being GOP?

      • Doug Deal says:

        From what I understand, Cook compiles this data based on voting history only, not polling data. Of course, Rasmussen would say that your 20% figure is way off. Plus, this includes the habits of “independent” voters who actually go out to the polls. If your 20% number is correct, then pretty much every “independent” is really a Republican.

        In my opinion such polls are little more than voodoo, because polls are always editted to reflect what the polling organization thinks is the party affiliation. If they get too many of one party, they renormalize the numbers to make them more in line with what they suspect. The better pollsters are the ones that end up being better guessers.

        Actually voting habits, however, are less open to interpretation, since they are based on actual results and not half conjecture.

        • ByteMe says:

          Which year did they check voting patterns? 2004, 2006, 2008 or did they look at trendlines or what? I’m really curious on this one, because I can’t fathom how the Republicans got slammed in ’06 and ’08 if the voting pattern indicates the opposite.

          • Doug Deal says:

            It is the relative alignment of the district in Presidential voting to the national average in the last two Presidential elections based on Congressional district. It is imperfect, but there is no perfect way to really guage such things.

            Averaging the results of the last two Presidential elections gives a base national alignment of +2.4D.

            So, even my analysis is flawed in that one should probably look at R+3 or greater for Dems and R+2 and below for Republicans instead of 0.

          • ByteMe says:

            Yeah, 0 does seem unrealistic, considering the massive shift over the past two election cycles. Ok, thanks for the details.

        • AubieTurtle says:

          The way the polls are handled in politics is really weird to me. In college I took business statistics freshman year, engineering statistics my senior year and then biological statistics in graduate school. Margin of error was based on sample size and in some cases the population size. There was never a correction factor for party membership. Of course there wouldn’t be in business, engineering, or biology but I can’t recall there ever being a correction for an analog in those areas. It seems like if during polling it is found that the party identity of the sample doesn’t match what the pollster believes to be reality, then it should be inside the margin for error or indicates there was something wrong with the process (or it was the one time out of twenty that is expected to fall outside the margin of error and should be discarded). But this business of adjusting the numbers to fit what is believed to be the party identification percentages seems to me to invalidate the results. But I’m no Nate Silver and it’s been a while since I took those classes.

  13. Game Fan says:

    I just don’t think medicare or Social Security resonates with average Americans or Tea Party folks. Not to mention that attacking these things ain’t exactly political gold either. So give the Tea Partyers some politcal credit here, eh? Of course there’s plenty of items which might be easier to stop before they even start to lurch out of the train station. Not to mention plenty of items on page 2 or 3 with different folks. It’s ghastly John, where these so-called “experts” would take this country without any effective counter-measures. And f.y.i. this blogger has been consistently against any and all bailout measures.

Comments are closed.