Not Gonna Happen

Jim Marshall has a challenger.

Paul Rish, until a few days ago chairman of the Bibb County Republican Party, will challenge U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall here in the 8th Congressional District, he said this morning.

Rish, who will be 30 next week, will be making his first bid for political office. He is president and CEO of his own voice and data network business, Rish Telecommunications, and was head of the local GOP until resigning Sept. 30 to make this congressional run.

I keep this seat as Safe Democrat for now.


  1. Some Other Valerie says:

    Hey, speaking of Jim Marshall, I was on CSPAN 2 Book TV last night talking about Jim Marshall and his lack of support for HR 1207, the bill to audit the Federal Reserve.

  2. TPNoGa says:

    I wouldn’t consider it “safe”. He is clearly the favorite, but if he has only won his last two elections by close margins, there is at least a possibility that any GOP wave could sweep him out. Not saying it is gonna happen, just that he isn’t completely safe. I would classify it as “leans Dem”

    • Look at all of the statistics; there’s a trend of under performance in mid-term elections on Marshall’s part. I wouldn’t call the 08 election at all close, nor would I call this a “safe” seat.

      I’d say he was the favorite right now though. Incumbency is a big advantage and so is name recognition. Is he untouchable? Surely not – but will he be hard to beat? Sure.

        • No.

          But 2002 being close, then 2004 with the same opponent being a 63% win – followed by 2006 being close, and then 2008 being another easy win certainly suggests the trend I posited.

          I’d really like to see the Macon Mayoral race numbers from 1994. But that’s more for personal reasons than trying to establish a trend.

          You could argue that it’s a different district and thus all of the numbers are invalid anyway, and that’s certainly a valid argument. But the fact remains Marshall’s numbers are fairly consistent. Strong finishing for big turn out elections, and weaker finishes in Mid Terms. Unless you want to include 2000, when Saxby took him with an 18% lead.

          • rugby says:

            Political Science 101 FAIL.

            Marshall’s results show there is NO TREND.

            Also that you would try to create a trend from four totally different scenarios is an even greater fail.

          • Not to just burst your bubble, but that’s not something covered in Political Science 101 at most schools in Georgia. Perhaps you are looking for Stats 101 FAIL.

            I don’t know if you simply had a reading and comprehension fail, but I addressed your little argument already. I conceded it is erroneous to compare one election to another due to the shifting lines of the district; but that also throws out any statistical analysis that anyone might try to assert.

            The problem with simply dismissing everything but the 2008 election is that the lines did not change that much. Look at the data breakdown from the last election; it wasn’t new areas brought into the district that won the election for Marshall – it was a poor turnout in rural areas and Houston for Goddard.

            Pardon me for using the word “trend,” I failed to realize I was not responding to an entry on a blog that is targeted to a wide array of people rather than Political Scientists. Rather than cause anyone else to become so frustrated by a mere choice of words, allow me to rephrase what I said:

            Generally, Congressman Jim Marshall’s opponents tend to gain a larger percentage of votes during MidTerm elections. Do you contest this?

          • . . .

            To quote myself:

            “I’d say he was the favorite right now though. Incumbency is a big advantage and so is name recognition. Is he untouchable? Surely not – but will he be hard to beat? Sure.”

          • rugby says:

            It was taught in my Poli Sci 101 thought it was universal.

            As to the point about the midterm votes yeah sure. But I have no idea why you would try to extrapolate a prediction from two votes that happened in two different districts.

          • Where is my prediction?

            Is my assertion that Marshall is the favorite but not unbeatable now classified as a prediction? Surely you jest. These are mere observations, just like Marshall under performing in mid term elections.

            I fail to see how you have arrived to the conclusion that I made a prediction in regards to this matter.

  3. slyram says:

    “Mr. Speaker, I respectfully defer to the gentleman from Georgia, Mr. Daniels, whose knowledge of the heart of our fine state is second to none including the great Sam “Nunn” who came from that same red clay and piney forest region—an area that produces sweet Georgia peaches in Fort Valley and also fruit.” Black college humor aside, Ron’s stats are solid and I believe him. The main wildcat factor is the amount of support the national Democrats would give Marshall; wildcat not being a reference to the FVSU Wildcats whose alumni forms the base of the professional Black community in the region while the college is in the 2ndCD. For whatever reason, they like Marshall and his position on Obama doesn’t change that. Actually, Marshall’s concerns about White House positions improve his chance with right leaning voters. Ron, I posted about this on my blog but you should be reading L1 stuff, right.

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