Not Gonna Happen

October 5, 2009 11:06 am

by Erick · 20 comments

Jim Marshall has a challenger.

Paul Rish, until a few days ago chairman of the Bibb County Republican Party, will challenge U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall here in the 8th Congressional District, he said this morning.

Rish, who will be 30 next week, will be making his first bid for political office. He is president and CEO of his own voice and data network business, Rish Telecommunications, and was head of the local GOP until resigning Sept. 30 to make this congressional run.

I keep this seat as Safe Democrat for now.

Some Other Valerie October 5, 2009 at 11:07 am

Erick speaketh and thus it is so.

Doug Deal October 5, 2009 at 11:18 am

He successfully predicted the VP nominee on the 8th attempt. He KNOWS things, Val.

Some Other Valerie October 5, 2009 at 11:30 am

Erick is a tough audience. Wonder what he thinks of that Angela lady that’s running.

Some Other Valerie October 5, 2009 at 11:33 am

Hey, speaking of Jim Marshall, I was on CSPAN 2 Book TV last night talking about Jim Marshall and his lack of support for HR 1207, the bill to audit the Federal Reserve.

Doug Deal October 5, 2009 at 11:49 am

You mean the “conservative” Jim Marshall that votes with Barney Frank 84% of the time.

http://www.opencongress.org/people/compare?representatives=true&person1=400254&person2=400140&commit=Compare

Notice the vote that he and Barn shared on the misnamed “Employee Free Choice Act of 2007″.

http://www.opencongress.org/bill/110-h800/show

Marshall wants to take away people’s rights to a secret ballot on the job. Yeah, “conservative”, if abortion is the only issue you care about.

benevolus October 5, 2009 at 8:54 pm

Am I misunderstanding you? Are you referring to the EFCA? Because that bill still gives employees the right to a secret ballot. It just transfers the choice to the employees rather than the employer.

You wouldn’t misrepresent that on on purpose I hope?

TPNoGa October 5, 2009 at 3:54 pm

I wouldn’t consider it “safe”. He is clearly the favorite, but if he has only won his last two elections by close margins, there is at least a possibility that any GOP wave could sweep him out. Not saying it is gonna happen, just that he isn’t completely safe. I would classify it as “leans Dem”

RuralDem October 5, 2009 at 11:42 pm

“but if he has only won his last two elections by close margins”

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1104/024.htm

Close?

I’ll give you 2006 as being close, but um I think saying his victory last November was “close” is off.

TPNoGa October 6, 2009 at 8:17 am

My bad. I was thinking of 2006. I stand by the rest of my comment.

Ronald Daniels October 6, 2009 at 10:24 am

Look at all of the statistics; there’s a trend of under performance in mid-term elections on Marshall’s part. I wouldn’t call the 08 election at all close, nor would I call this a “safe” seat.

I’d say he was the favorite right now though. Incumbency is a big advantage and so is name recognition. Is he untouchable? Surely not – but will he be hard to beat? Sure.

ByteMe October 6, 2009 at 11:40 am

One data point is a “trend”??

Ronald Daniels October 6, 2009 at 12:25 pm

No.

But 2002 being close, then 2004 with the same opponent being a 63% win – followed by 2006 being close, and then 2008 being another easy win certainly suggests the trend I posited.

I’d really like to see the Macon Mayoral race numbers from 1994. But that’s more for personal reasons than trying to establish a trend.

You could argue that it’s a different district and thus all of the numbers are invalid anyway, and that’s certainly a valid argument. But the fact remains Marshall’s numbers are fairly consistent. Strong finishing for big turn out elections, and weaker finishes in Mid Terms. Unless you want to include 2000, when Saxby took him with an 18% lead.

rugby October 6, 2009 at 2:12 pm

Political Science 101 FAIL.

Marshall’s results show there is NO TREND.

Also that you would try to create a trend from four totally different scenarios is an even greater fail.

Ronald Daniels October 6, 2009 at 4:55 pm

Not to just burst your bubble, but that’s not something covered in Political Science 101 at most schools in Georgia. Perhaps you are looking for Stats 101 FAIL.

I don’t know if you simply had a reading and comprehension fail, but I addressed your little argument already. I conceded it is erroneous to compare one election to another due to the shifting lines of the district; but that also throws out any statistical analysis that anyone might try to assert.

The problem with simply dismissing everything but the 2008 election is that the lines did not change that much. Look at the data breakdown from the last election; it wasn’t new areas brought into the district that won the election for Marshall – it was a poor turnout in rural areas and Houston for Goddard.

Pardon me for using the word “trend,” I failed to realize I was not responding to an entry on a blog that is targeted to a wide array of people rather than Political Scientists. Rather than cause anyone else to become so frustrated by a mere choice of words, allow me to rephrase what I said:

Generally, Congressman Jim Marshall’s opponents tend to gain a larger percentage of votes during MidTerm elections. Do you contest this?

benevolus October 6, 2009 at 6:58 pm

So you are agreeing that Marshall isn’t “completely safe”.
Fine.

Ronald Daniels October 6, 2009 at 7:06 pm

. . .

To quote myself:

“I’d say he was the favorite right now though. Incumbency is a big advantage and so is name recognition. Is he untouchable? Surely not – but will he be hard to beat? Sure.”

Icarus October 6, 2009 at 7:37 pm

Ronald,

You should only quote yourself if you know what you write to be true, and judge yourself to be credible.

rugby October 7, 2009 at 9:47 am

It was taught in my Poli Sci 101 thought it was universal.

As to the point about the midterm votes yeah sure. But I have no idea why you would try to extrapolate a prediction from two votes that happened in two different districts.

Ronald Daniels October 7, 2009 at 10:09 am

Where is my prediction?

Is my assertion that Marshall is the favorite but not unbeatable now classified as a prediction? Surely you jest. These are mere observations, just like Marshall under performing in mid term elections.

I fail to see how you have arrived to the conclusion that I made a prediction in regards to this matter.

slyram October 6, 2009 at 11:12 am

“Mr. Speaker, I respectfully defer to the gentleman from Georgia, Mr. Daniels, whose knowledge of the heart of our fine state is second to none including the great Sam “Nunn” who came from that same red clay and piney forest region—an area that produces sweet Georgia peaches in Fort Valley and also fruit.” Black college humor aside, Ron’s stats are solid and I believe him. The main wildcat factor is the amount of support the national Democrats would give Marshall; wildcat not being a reference to the FVSU Wildcats whose alumni forms the base of the professional Black community in the region while the college is in the 2ndCD. For whatever reason, they like Marshall and his position on Obama doesn’t change that. Actually, Marshall’s concerns about White House positions improve his chance with right leaning voters. Ron, I posted about this on my blog but you should be reading L1 stuff, right.

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