Barnes is in (and I’m undecided)

June 3, 2009 3:39 am

by Andre · 10 comments

As the clock struck midnight Wednesday morning, Atlanta Journal Constitution political insider Jim Galloway posted on his blog the news we all have been waiting to hear.

Barnes is in.

Polls say the former governor, who was defeated for re-election seven years ago, is considered a favorite to capture the state Democratic Party’s gubernatorial nomination next year.

An InsiderAdvantage / Majority Opinion Research poll conducted May 21 showed Barnes the prohibitive favorite in the Democratic race for governor should he decide to run. He was at 38 percent, compared with 3 percent for Attorney General Thurbert Baker, 2 percent for former Adjutant General David Poythress and 2 percent for House Minority Leader DuBose Porter, with some 53 percent of likely Democratic voters undecided.

Pettys, Dick (2009-3-6). “Barnes Is In“. Insider Advantage Georgia.

Count me as one of those “fifty-three percent of likely Democratic voters undecided.”

Hochimama June 3, 2009 at 4:21 am

My shattered nerves, this is going to be fun. Two big time primaries ( if the other Democrats stay in ) and an old fashion horse race of a general election. Can Michael Thurmond for LG be far behind???

Jeff June 3, 2009 at 4:22 am

This should make things interesting, but ultimately I’m thinking Baker may well be the DPG nominee due to the crowded GAGOP field. (And yes, I mentioned this in my ‘Requisite Roy Barnes Speculation Post’ on SWGAPolitics.com)

The basic idea being this:

GAGOP trends lily-white. A crowded field for them gives more whites who would otherwise vote in the DPG primary a reason to vote in the GAGOP primary instead.

This increases the weight of minorities in the DPG primary, particularly African Americans, from the normal ~50% to higher – say around 60%, maybe even up to 75%.

We say in 2008 that upwards of 80% of the AA vote will go to the AA candidate, if one exists.

Next July, there DOES exist an AA candidate in the DPG primary – Thurbert Baker.

What will kill Baker with AAs is the whole Wilson debacle, but even that may not hurt him enough for Barnes to overcome the institutional racism.

Ronald Daniels June 3, 2009 at 6:04 am

Looks like I won’t have to eat my hat after all.

macho June 3, 2009 at 7:09 am

It will be interesting to see if Thrubert can take the black vote. Vernon was unable to capture it, but he was a major doofus. Thurbert is a sharp guy, yes there is Genarlow, but Thurbert has a tough on crime image during a time when urban primary voters are getting fed up with crime.

I think it’s stupid to do any polls at this point as Barnes is a former Governor and will obviously have the most name ID. Once the primaries move forward, and Thurbert has the opportunity to point out that Barnes’ record doesn’t reflect the populist, “looking out for the little guy” image that he’s currently been projecting, the race will tighten. Some of Barnes’s image change will depend on whether the media will be willing accomplices in his transformation or will point out some of the inconsistentcies.

Thurbert will be formidable.

Romegaguy June 3, 2009 at 7:30 am

Andre’s vote is for sale

drjay June 3, 2009 at 7:35 am

maybe he’s being paid to be undecided…

Romegaguy June 3, 2009 at 7:36 am

or nobody has met his minimum bid yet

UGALiberal June 3, 2009 at 8:41 am

Anyone really surprised?

I kinda hoped he would run for Senate.

griftdrift June 3, 2009 at 8:51 am

He actually wants a chance at winning.

ugadog June 3, 2009 at 8:57 am

You would be.

Comments on this entry are closed.