From the Southern Political Report:
The GOP race “is wide open,” agrees University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock, who says, however, that Handel “has the inside track.” Bullock says she will benefit from being the only woman in the race. “All else being equal, Republican women would vote for a woman,” says Bullock, noting his impression from speaking to GOP women’s clubs around the state. Handel has voter recognition, especially in the vote-rich North Fulton area from her previous service as chairman of the Fulton County Commission. She may also may draw support from some of the business community and from more moderate Republicans, though her support for a picture ID requirement for voting has helped her with conservatives. Most of all, it is possible that she will have the support of the still popular Perdue, either up-front or behind the scenes.
Deal’s entry into the race was very much a surprise. The Peach State rumor mill had it that he was going to retire in 2010. That he’s running for governor “tells us something about the race,” says Southern Political Report editor Tom Baxter, formerly chief political correspondent for the Atlanta Journal and Constitution; “he would have had to have some pretty powerful folks backing him.” Deal may get the support of some of the business community, since he serves on the Energy and Commerce Committee. In addition, he is expected to have the endorsement of most of the seven Republican US House members from Georgia. He also benefits by being from the heavily Republican 9th District (75% for McCain in 2008) in GOP-heavy North Georgia. Some 60% of the Republican Primary vote comes from North of I-20. Indeed, the withdrawal from the race of fellow North Georgian Cagle was a major factor in Deal’s decision to run.
***snip***
On the Democratic side, whether it’s a go or a no-go for Barnes, his decision won’t be a big surprise, as there is considerable speculation that he will run and that he won’t.
Evidence for the “yes, he will run” position is plentiful. Barnes is behaving like a candidate, speaking around the state and staying in the public eye. Moreover, as one observer put it, “I have rarely seen a guy more devastated by [his 2002] defeat — maybe Jimmy Carter — and rarely seen a guy more driven for redemption.”
But there is equally compelling evidence that he won’t take the leap. Close associates to the former governor are saying there is less than a 50% chance that he will get in the race. “He has not closed the door, but it’s looking less likely,” says one source. Several factors discourage him. One, says Bullock, is that “he would like for the last chapter in his political career not to be a defeat. So he would have to have a strong feeling that he could win for him to run.” Barnes is expected to make a decision by next month.
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Come on Buzz……How about not “snipping” everything out of the article?
Also from the same article:
Oxendine has significant name ID from having won three statewide elections. He has good fundraising potential from having served as Insurance Commissioner since 1995. And he is making a pitch to social conservatives, most recently by opposing (unsuccessfully) the sale of alcohol beverages in the state on Sunday.
True Grit
CHILL OUT! Buzz put in the link to the article. The OX team on the PP needs to take a vacation!
“Up your shaft…” Scotty, Star Trek 3
How did Ox “unsuccessfully” oppose the legislation? It was never voted on. Sounds successful to me.
Sure she’s got the “inside track” when you consider the voting equipment that’s being used. This could be a plus or a minus, for Handel, depending on how you look at it.
http://www.voterga.org/
That he’s running for governor “tells us something about the race,” says Southern Political Report editor Tom Baxter, formerly chief political correspondent for the Atlanta Journal and Constitution
How curious. Why feel the need to “credentialize” ( a word I just made-up) Tom Baxter by associating him with the steadily deteriorating AJC?
Because they associated him with the now dead AJC that even I’m beginning to miss.
” . . . the still popular Perdue.”
***slides open window, climbs out on ledge***
Because they associated him with the now dead AJC that even I’m beginning to miss.
I think you should put in the AJC Suggestion Box the idea that they charge more money for a special weekly edition of all the vents. I think that might be the most profit-generating product they have if they would put more work into it.
That and Luckovich cartoons.
Or they could have just hired me…
This is a somewhat reluctant “hats off” to the AJC for their Arts section and support of local artists and artisans. Just bought the Sunday edition and not sure if this is a change or not, but I’m getting into the local arts thing myself and found some good stuff there. And since Icarus is dying to know what I do for a living, I convert barkaloungers into meowaloungers.
I also invented the diesel powered styrofoam hoist.
Handel “has the inside track.”
I begged a differ.
Bullock says she will benefit from being the only woman in the race. “All else being equal, Republican women would vote for a woman,” says Bullock, noting his impression from speaking to GOP women’s clubs around the state.
That actually hurts her. Women are still going to go to Ox, PERIOD!!!
Handel has voter recognition, especially in the vote-rich North Fulton area
Yes she’s well known there, but she’s well known as being a disaster as SoS. As SoS, she’s not promoted fair elections. She has tried disqualifying Blacks and Democrats left and right.
She may also may draw support from some of the business community and from more moderate Republicans, though her support for a picture ID requirement for voting has helped her with conservatives.
Yes she’ll get Moderates and Liberals, but that’s because she’s a Lincoln Chaffee Republican. Business?? Sheesh! Ox will get the business, Blue Collar, Women, and Men votes, PERIOD! Governor Oxendine here we come! Ah, GO OXENDINE!!!
This is definitely an interesting race with a number of ways you can evaluate it. However, I think he is accurate that Karen Handel has an edge. It is not because of her gender, it is because she is effective.
Too many times “politicians” consider an issue taboo simply because of the perceived negative political perception at that moment. I wonder just how many elected leaders would have avoided, or run away from the voting fraud issue she has taken on and succeeded with?
Liberal? Not hardly. Effective, absolutely.
“Too many times “politicians” consider an issue taboo simply because of the perceived negative political perception at that moment.”
Maurice, with due respect, I’m not sure Handel’s voting fraud thing demonstrated political courage, as it only upset Democrats. There was no downside for her. It’s akin to, “Republican legislator takes on abortion lobby.”
Again, not courage, but a well-executed campaign on behalf of an issue that polls extremely well.
Jack, sometime’s we political hacks get too close to the trees to not see the tree. Sure the fraud issue excites some circles, however, it is was and will be a big issue that many, I’m certain, would run away from. Karen didn’t.
Insiders at Capitol say Handel’s McLagan is about to expose Eric Johnson as the “mystery man” behind the specially-written and highly unusual insertion of highway projects into the State budget that directly benefits Eric’s Campaign Chair Jamie Reynolds (Reynolds Plantation) and Eric’s Savannah business partner Gus Bell (Bryan County Genesis development partner). Thanks to Eric, both these guys
will benefit to the tune of millions of bucks. COVER STORY: STATE MONEY: Road bill bends in direction of donors
Mystery remains over how two politically connected projects got priority in legislation.
By Aaron Gould Sheinin, Cameron McWhirter
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Sunday, March 22, 2009
When the powerful head of the Georgia House Transportation Committee unveiled his $25 billion tax proposal for road construction last month, he included a list of dozens of projects that would be virtually guaranteed if the measure passes.
The list, in Chairman Vance Smith’s bill, features improvements to large interstates and major roadways statewide, from busy truck routes to congested areas of metro Atlanta.
Then there are two smaller projects whose inclusion on the list surprised even their supporters.
One is a $26 million widening of a two-lane country road in Greene County, plucked off the state Transportation Department’s list of long-range projects. It runs past the main road of a luxury resort on Lake Oconee, owned by some of the state’s most prominent Republican donors, the Reynolds family. The widening project stops at Linger Longer Road, named after the family’s company that manages the sprawling Reynolds Plantation.
The other project, which doesn’t have a price tag yet, is a new interchange with I-95 in Bryan County, south of Savannah. The state DOT recently called the project unnecessary —- twice. The ramps would benefit a proposed massive mixed-used development by a Florida company that donates liberally to Georgia Republicans and to pro-business political action committees.
How the projects got on the list is a bit of a mystery because the list was drawn up behind closed doors. No one involved will answer how these projects leapfrogged roughly 9,000 others to land in the legislation.
Smith (R-Pine Mountain) would say only that he drafted H.B. 277 in his office with eight to 10 other people he declined to identify, beyond saying they were industry and government officials. He did not disclose the criteria for making the list, but he did say they wanted to include projects statewide so the bill to add a penny to the state sales tax might attract broad support.
It is unusual to include specific projects in this type of legislation, which sets the budget and policies for the Transportation Department; indeed, a similar bill Smith introduced in 2008 had no such list.
The plan sailed through the House but has met resistance in the Senate, which has its own transportation bill that does not specify projects. Senate leaders have expressed concern about the list.
“None of those projects have been vetted, which I think has caused the greatest concern among Senate members,” said Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, who is president of the Senate. “Where did those come from?”
‘An important project’
Many of those who would be expected to know about the widening of Ga. 44 in Greene County said they were surprised Smith included the project. The Reynolds family, the local state House member, county officials and transportation officials charged with prioritizing work across the state all said they had no idea it would be in Smith’s bill.
Smith said the bill’s project list is meant not only to smooth transportation but to encourage economic development.
Few would dispute that Reynolds Plantation is the engine that drives Greene County’s economy. Easily the county’s largest employer, the resort has brought ancillary development along Ga. 44, and Smith pointed to studies that show a projected tripling of traffic on that stretch of road by 2016.
“That is a great example of an economic development corridor for the smooth flow of people from an interstate to a very, very upscale resort … it was an important project that needed to be on the list,” Smith said.
The project to create four lanes and a median would require the state to buy property along the existing road, including some owned by the Reynolds family, who have extensive holdings in the county. It is undecided how much they would be paid for their land.
Reynolds Plantation President Rabun Neal and other supporters of the widening argue it is needed for traffic safety. However, a three-year accident study by the Transportation Department showed the road to be much safer than the average for rural roads.
County officials have long sought the widening project, which starts at I-20 and ends at the main road leading to Reynolds Plantation. The Transportation Department issued a report in 2007 supporting the project, but saying the agency had no money for the “rural minor” road. Officials said they didn’t plan to ask for construction money until 2014 at the earliest, though they did procure $4.4 million in 2005 for engineering work.
Reynolds Plantation, on the shores of Lake Oconee, features a $90 million Ritz-Carlton Lodge, world famous golf courses and homes that sell for more than $4 million. It’s the creation of the Reynolds family. Family members are among the most generous and loyal Republican donors in the country, with close ties to the Bush family.
Mercer Reynolds III, CEO of the plantation, was once a business partner with former President George W. Bush and served as ambassador to Switzerland in Bush’s administration. Last year, he served as Republican presidential nominee John McCain’s national finance co-chairman.
Jamie Reynolds, Mercer’s cousin, served as McCain’s Georgia finance chairman. State campaign contribution reports show Linger Longer, one of the family’s companies, gave $20,000 to the Georgia GOP in the last election cycle. Reynolds family members donated thousands in 2006 to Gov. Sonny Perdue and to Cagle. The family and its companies have not given directly to Smith.
Jamie Reynolds referred questions for this article to Neal, the Reynolds Plantation president. A Reynolds Plantation spokeswoman did not return calls seeking an interview with Mercer Reynolds.
Neal said he has no idea how the road project was included in the bill.
The project’s inclusion came soon after the state’s Jekyll Island Authority reached a deal with the Rey-nolds’ Linger Longer company to redevelop the state-owned barrier island. That deal grants Linger Longer rights to develop the island and provide the state a portion of its profits. The terms of the contract are more generous than those granted to other developers.
“The Reynolds family is well-connected,” said Carey Williams, longtime editor of The Herald-Journal newspaper in Greensboro. He supports the road widening. “If they can pull the Jekyll Island deal, what the hell is a seven-mile road project to them?”
Billy Copelan, 65, whose family has lived along the road for generations, stands to lose farmland to the widening. He said traffic isn’t that bad on the road.
“If they widen it, it’ll get worse,” Copelan said. “But there’s nothing you can do about it. They are going to get it done one way or another.”
Greene County spokesman Chris Edwards said county officials are happy the project was included in Smith’s bill. “This is the first we’d heard of it,” he said, when contacted by the AJC.
Transportation Department spokesman David Spear said his agency was not involved in Smith’s decision and doesn’t know how the project got in the bill.
In a follow-up e-mail, Spear wrote that staffers often “consult with the governor and legislative leadership on policies and projects —- certainly so with the Transportation Committee chairmen and members of their committees. We obviously value their insights and perspectives a great deal.”
A Perdue spokesman said the governor’s office did not shape the list in Smith’s bill.
The Transportation Department broadly divides projects into those that can and should be done soon, and those that can wait. The Ga. 44 widening always has been on that second list.
Interchange was rejected
About a four-hour drive southeast of that project, Bryan County leaders see H.B. 277 as the answer to their prayers.
I-95 runs for 11 miles between exits in a stretch that bisects Bryan and Liberty counties south of Fort Stewart. Belfast Siding Road runs between U.S. 17 and the interstate, but the road and I-95 pass each other with no on- or off-ramp. A proposed project would link the two with a new interstate interchange.
Jacksonville-based Rayonier Corp., a forestry company, wants to turn thousands of acres of forest land into a major residential and commercial development. It has the backing of local officials, state lawmakers and members of Congress.
The Transportation Department issued a report last year saying the interchange wasn’t needed. The county asked the state to reconsider, but transportation officials came to the same conclusion and stand by the study.
Smith said the department’s study, though based on expert analysis, is wrong.
Bryan County administrator Phil Jones said the county has been trying to get the interchange since 1994. He said he wasn’t sure how it made it into the bill.
Rayonier did not return calls and e-mails seeking comment. State campaign records show Rayonier gave thousands to various Georgia campaigns last year, including $1,000 to Cagle, though nothing to Smith. The company gave $50,000 to the state’s main lobbying group for forestry companies and $40,000 to a group pushing last year’s unsuccessful “private cities” referendum.
Jimmy Burnsed, chairman of the Bryan County Board of Commissioners, said he was “flabbergasted” when transportation officials ruled the project unnecessary. He asked the agency to reconsider; it came back with a 199-page report rejecting it again.
Since then, county officials and Rayonier have been working to get the project in a bill. Burnsed said he met with Senate Transportation Chairman Jeff Mullis (R-Chickamauga), but never with Smith. He said Rayonier had people lobbying to get the interchange funded.
Josh Fenn, executive director of the Development Authority of Bryan County, said he didn’t know how the project ended up on the H.B. 277 list.
“[But] I appreciate Chairman Smith, who has the wisdom to see what the future is and the potential growth in Bryan County.”
Staff writer Ariel Hart contributed to this article.
JEMAL R. BRINSON / Staff
Map locates the road-widening project relative to Reynolds Plantation in Greene county. Inset map shows area of detail as it relates to Atlanta.
SHANNON PEAVY / Staff
Map shows location of proposed interchange. Inset map shows area of detail as it relates to Atlanta and Savannah.
“I begged a differ.”
What?
What?
I meant Handel does not have the indide track, and that Oxendine does.
handel will crush Johnson with her badass crew.
Handel has a fantastic staff……I’d rather have the fantastic candidate. Vote Ox.
“I’d rather have the fantastic candidate. ”
When you find one, be sure to break it to Ox easily.
I give the inside track to Deal, he seems like a more genuine candidate, Ox is pandering too much, his talking points are like a checklist of the different “Republican” or “Conservative” groups he needs to appease. Deal has name recognition, a solid base of support, is viewed as a strong conservative and is the kind of guy who can appeal across the state. Handel is a solid lady, and I think if she waited she’d be a great candidate down the road, but right now, I don’t believe she can compete across the state effectively, especially against two other solid candidates, just not enough name recognition and experience state wide. I do tend to believe the Republican party is fairly blessed when it comes to our options for the Gov’s race, much better choices than in 2002. Barnes is a joke and a has-been. If that is the best the Dems can come up with in this state, they need to sit out a couple rounds and build up some talent. Barnes is living in a GA that just doesn’t exist anymore.
“Handel….don’t believe she can compete across the state.”
Really? She’s been there done that. Successfully I might add.
“Barnes is a joke…and a has been.”
Never under estimate the competition. It’ll get you beat.
“Deal has name recognition”……Sorry to dissappoint you Murray, but Deal has virtually no name recognition south of I-20, and what he does have is slightly above Schuyler Colfax and slightly below Mac Collins.
I should have said CONSIDERABLY below Mac Collins……..slightly below Austin Scott?
I think the race is between Deal, Ox, and Karen. For all of you Eric supporters, unless he does VERY well in the south end of the state, he will just help force a run off.
Deal’s statewide name ID is not that high right now. However the race is not going to held for another year. He can raise money and with the endorsements he will get, followed by the fund raisers, and meet and greets, his name ID will rise.
Unless there has been a poll of likely GOP primary voting women, I don’t give the inside track with that voting group to anyone.
Objectively speaking, I think Karen has the most experienced staff, but I don’t know who Deal has or will hire. Ox is a great candidate, but I think the resumes of his supporters could be longer. That DOES NOT mean that they don’t know what they are doing. If the race were held today, I would guess OX to be the top vote getter, but not by more than 50%.
The FACT is that either Deal, Ox or Karen will be the next Gov. I don’t care if President Obama resigns and moves to Macon.
I give the inside track to Deal, he seems like a more genuine candidate
This after ONE speech? Chase…trust me….there WILL be pandering by Deal. He’ll make the rounds to the churches and pander about gay marriage and how Terri Schiavo was a tragedy he tried his darndest to prevent. He’ll go to the RTL rallies and pander to them about how he wants to get a consitutional amendment to outlaw abortions.
Then Deal will go to the military alumni organizations and pound the podium about getting a constitutional amendment to prevent desecration of the American Flag.
Deal WILL pander. It’s in his blood. After all, Deal’s been a member of the BIGGEST professional pandering organization in the world for the past 15 years: The US House of Representatives.
“Barnes is living in a GA that just doesn’t exist anymore.”
Exactly. The GA we used to live in with him was one where everyone could pay their bills.
I’ve had the best time wading through all these numbnut comments. You guys think that in two years time, people will forget that its been the GAGOP and their worthless minions sitting in the highest offices in the land that have led us into the wilderness (with a big aid from the national GOP that got soundly rejected this past go around). The country hit rock bottom and kicked out the bums that caused the crap. GA always has been a little slower to catch on, but it usually always catches on finally and I think you all see that your time is coming to a close here. Or the national pundits will be right and the GOP will truly confine itself to being a small regional party concentrated solely in the South. If that is what you are going for, kudos on the great start.
A good staff is often the reflection of a good boss. A lot of people I respect like Handel and it is for that reason I lean toward supporting her. I want more about what she wants to do as governor and what she considers priorities before I can commit to a full blown endorsement, but it is still early, so I do not fault anyone on that, yet.
As for Deal, I must admit I like the idea of having my last name elevated to the highest office in the state, but I have my doubts about any legislature. In general, I do not like their character or makeup. Governor is one of the few offices that require real experience. Any poor slob off the street can be a decent legislator.
I lean toward supporting her.
Of course you’re supporting Handel. You and Handel are Liberals. Any day now, I can be ready to hear you and Handel shout “Hosanna! Hosanna!” to Obama and Biden. Pure idiocy at its finest. Go Ox!
Perhaps I am a bit ignorant in these state matters. I guess I was speaking more from my own perspective than reality, because you all have raised good points. I still think Handel is a bit more of a novice on the state level, since she only has one major election under her belt (outside of the county). As far as Barnes, I still think he is a joke, but we shouldn’t underestimate him. And Bill, I can dream can’t I?
John Oxendine is the GOP front-runner right now, from my perspective. He has statewide name recognition and is associated with helping average Georgians, not dis-enfranchising them like Karen Handel has done. Ms. Handel has a sharp edge to her that is not endearing to the electorate.
“Ms. Handel has a sharp edge to her that is not endearing to the electorate”…especially Democrats eh?
“John Oxendine is the GOP front runner right now….” Agreed, good news for RoyB.
Chase,
And Bill, I can dream can’t I?
Sure you can! Just like Dorothy…and Alice…and Peter Pan…
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