Political Analyst Questions Obama’s Ability To Mobilize Democrats

As Democrats begin preparing for next year’s midterm elections, a veteran political analyst is expressing worries about President Obama’s ability to provide coattails for his Democratic colleagues when he isn’t on the ballot.

Rhodes Cook, who spent almost twenty-five years writing for Congressional Quarterly before joining the nonpartisan Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, recently reviewed the results of the 2008 Georgia Senate Run-off and asked the following question:

. . .while the [Democrats] can turn out their large constituency with Barack Obama atop the ticket, can they do so when he is not on the ballot?

In Georgia, Cook replies, the answer is no.

Although the former Congressional Quarterly reporter cautions readers not to “draw global conclusions from a single state,” he points to the nearly fifty percent drop between Jim Martin’s November vote total and the Democrat’s December run-off total as evidence that “there were no Obama coattails without Obama himself.”

Martin sought to spur Democratic turnout in the runoff by tying himself closely to Obama. He argued that he would be a loyal supporter of the new president, with one flier declaring: “Jim Martin for Senate, Don’t Stop With Barack.”

Obama, for his part, cut a radio spot and recorded a robo-call for Jim Martin. In addition, the President kept most of his Georgia campaign offices open and also sent volunteers to supplement the Martin campaign operation. Still, the Georgia Democratic U.S. Senate nominee went down in a crushing 15-point defeat on December 2nd.

Cook notes red flags should be raised by Democrats across the nation looking to learn lessons from Jim Martin’s drubbing at the hands of GOP incumbent Saxby Chambliss.

Martin’s loss to Chambliss came amidst voter turnout that almost matched the number of votes cast in the state’s 2006 gubernatorial election.

While nearly 4 million Georgians cast ballots in the presidential voting, only 2,137,956 participated in the Senate runoff. That is nearly identical to the number who cast ballots in the state’s 2006 gubernatorial election (2,122,258)–a race that was won handily by Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue.

“Voter turnout in 2010 will undoubtedly be much closer to these lower numbers than the higher presidential turnout figure,” Cook says.

There’s a simple question being asked here.

Are there any coattails being provided by Barack Obama?

Without Obama appearing atop the ticket or directly involving himself in a campaign, can Democrats continue their recent string of electoral victories?

Rhodes Cook responds that the jury is still deliberating on Obama’s skill to mobilize his party’s base to “turn out for a midterm election in which he is not on the ballot.” And that, Cook says, gives Republicans hope for a quick comeback from the political wilderness.

To view Rhodes Cook’s research on this subject, please read the January 29, 2009 column “The Georgia Senate Runoff: The First Shot Of 2010?.