I received a copy of the exit polling questions this morning from a source I trust. Click here to view the two page questionnaire in pdf. It’s seems slightly skewed toward the historic nature of Obama’s candidacy. I’ll admit though, I might be looking at them with my McCain colored glasses.
Take a look at the questionnaire and tell us what you think.
Do we know which precincts in Georgia are being polled?
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“I’ll admit though, I might be looking at them with my McCain colored glasses.”
You are.
Takes a lot of twisting to find bias in there.
I remember 4 years ago, my precint was being polled by someone, but they attempt to ask everyone, the young girl pulled aside people people at random. I do not know if it was voter news service, but if they do ask people randomly, I wonder how much of this randomness could be affected by biases in the poll worker. (I.e. they are better able to related to someone like themselves as opposed to a retiree or someone of a different race).
The questions are designed to create a negative response rather than a positive response. Also it captures the feelings of the moment rather than gaging a persons forward perspective. Notice that there is no qualifying follow-up to any queston. Here is how this works. For example, here is my personal belief:
Personally, I think the economy is in the crapper at the moment, but I have confidence that it will improve with little or no help from Washington. The economy goes up — the economy goes down — the economy goes up…etc. I feel good about the next two years regardless of what Washington does.
My only possible comment is that the economy is in the crapper and that dictated my vote. It may be correct, but it is not accurate.
This survey is designed to blame Bush, and Republican policies rather than determine a person’s true perspectives.
More meaningless crap from professional liars intent on distorting rather than reporting.
I don’t see the skew. The options on Question E strike me as a little strange, but I’m not sure they’re tilted toward Obama.
Well, there are two questions about the economy, but no mention of taxes. I think McCain’s been making taxes more of an issue than has Obama, but maybe I’m wearing those glasses, too.
Also, two opportunities to self-identify as Hispanic/Latino, once in the demographic question and again in box [L]. Stand-alone questions on race, voting for the first time, the bailout, Bush’s presidency, and how worried you are about the economy, but only one opportunity to select “experience” as an issue.
Not bias per se, but I just don’t see an easy way to spin the results of these questions for McCain, and I see a lot of ways to spin those results for Obama.
Fortunately, the media is this country is completely unbiased and objective, and the results of the exit polls will be reported without any attempt to influence the outcome of the election.
I would catagorize the questions more along the lines of “lame” instead of “biased”.
+5 for Icarus.
Latest Battleground poll
http://www.tarrance.com/files/Final-ballot-final-prediction.pdf
debbie,
That battleground chart showing the differences between results and predictions is bunk. I research all the major polls since 2000, and none of the published ones were that close. I seem to recall that Battleground’s last published poll had Bush winning by double digits in 2000.
Although, I think that it is interesting that their final “prejected” election result has Obama winning by only 1.9%. In my state by state differential calculation 1.9 is the exact maximum margin I calculated where there was a shot for McCain to win. (Using how far above and below each state was in the partisan divide over the last few elections, weighted toward the more recent). At 1.9%, he had his first significant chance of picking up Ohio, FL, VA, NV and CO, which would give him a minimal win.
Keep believing debbie.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php
Its 12:21, why hasn’t the media already called this one for Obama?
Farris,
They did. Many times over the past 12 months.
“They did. Many times over the past 12 months.”
There was a chance for McCain (and Republicans in general) to win this year?
Huh. Missed the last two years I guess.
Rugby,
I never underestimate the dems ability to screw up a gift being handed to them. And several times, they seemed to be trying as hard as ever.
But even I called this one for Obama a few days ago. And frankly, without a Newt Gingrich type already on deck, we’re probably going to have to screw around with our own identity crisis for 2 or 3 election cycles until Republicans can present a compelling case why we need to be in charge again.
Fair enough.
Looking into the future, the Senate isn’t changing hands in 2010.
The only Dem up for reelection in 2010 who might not be safe is Ron Wyden and maybe Inouye if the HI governor gets in the race.
Inouye would have to retire before that seat could even possibly be competitive.
With the large class of D’s were putting into the Senate this year from potentially R states, it will be 2014 before we have any real shot at the Senate. Could possibly make the House competitive sooner, but that will depend a lot more on the dems mis-reading this victory and Way over-reaching (I’ll give them about a 75% chance of that). The Republicans will still have to settle on our message, and we’ll be having a nice internal civil war between the fiscons and the socons for at least the next two cycles.
The only Dem up for reelection in 2010 who might not be safe is Ron Wyden and maybe Inouye if the HI governor gets in the race.
Given Saxby’s heavy lead and current position, I wouldn’t discount Johnny from that list.
Johnny has taken care of his local politics a lot better than Saxby has. He’ll have to work, but he won’t run a campaign of 6 year old B roll commmercials and circus music for 6 weeks while a no-name competitor is hitting him between the eyes.
Who and where are these “exit pollers?” In all the years I’ve been voting there has never been one outside my precicnt.
There was an exit poller at my precinct….
asked everyone to take the survey… but then again there might be 300-400 voters there today….
Buzz is correct: the exit poll skews strongly to the Left.
One only needs to look at the ordering of who is on their ballot: Barack Obama is listed firt, Jim Martin is listed first, and Democrat is listed first.
If there was any alphabetical nature to the listing, Bob Barr would have been listed first on the presidential question.
If there was any alphabetical nature on the US Senate question, Buckley would have been listed first.
Eff You Dems and your effing media effs.
It’s amazing with Jim Martin’s voting record that one of the main commercials they could come up with is the “child dying” one, which I though was unfair.
The guy has a State House voting record that makes Ralph Nader look like a conservative, it should have been like shooting fish in a barrel.
Drudge is starting to leak exit polls.
If you’re buying in to Doug’s analysis, you can go to bed now.
Icarus, I suggest waiting until the polls actually close in the states I listed. Remember 2004, and exit polls.
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