It’s That Time

What is your prediction for the elections?

Here is mine:

Jeanette Jamison finally goes down to defeat.

Jill Chambers loses to Chris, barely.

Allen Freeman survives, barely.

The GOP loses net 5 in the State House. The GOP loses net 2 in the State Senate.

Oh, and my national predictions are up at the Washington Post and reprinted below the fold.President: 311 for Obama and 227 for McCain with the popular vote going 49% to 47%.

In the Senate: 55-43-2 in favor of the Democrats.

In the House: 267-168 in favor of the Democrats.

97 comments

  1. envirodawg says:

    What two GOP state senators are going to lose? I haven’t heard of anyone in the senate that is in trouble.

  2. debbie0040 says:

    McCain wins. He takes PA, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, West Virginia. Obama will win California but not by a huge margin that is expected.

    Georgia goes to McCain by 10 – 15 %

    Two groups will help propel McCain to victory. Evangelicals and PUMAs.

  3. Icarus says:

    Obama is elected 44th President of the US, and the press doesn’t have to redefine the term “landslide”.

    McCain holds GA and FL, as well as AZ and IN, but loses NC, PA, OH, MO, CO, NV and even MT. Electoral college is 340 to 198.

    Republican Senators who give their seats to Dems include Virginia, New Mexico, and Colorado (Open). Republican Senators who are fired are Alaska (though Stevens will still get over 45%), Sununu (NH), Dole (NC), and Smith(OR).

    Coleman beats Frankin because he’s not good enough, smart enough, and doggoneit, people don’t like him.

    Saxby has to wait a few more weeks to be re-elected, as he gets 49% to Martin’s 47%.

    Jill Chambers loses to Obama and the city of Dunwoody, to “someone known on the internet as Chris is Hardcore”.

    Mike Jacobs edges out Conlon.

    Chris Strickland loses on the basis that his volunteers didn’t post enough spam.

    Keith Gross announces his 2010 run against Mike Jacobs Wednesday from his new home at a dude ranch in Wyoming.

    Jeanette Jamison goes down like Jenna Jamison.

    The House re-elects Glen Richardson as Speaker, setting up an actual competitive race at all levels in 2010. Expect to see Roy Barnes and Cathy Cox back in action.

    Georgia plays a bowl game in Florida that is not in Miami.

    Expect to see a series of “bailout” bills in a lame duck session and thru February, all the while ignoring fixing the underlying problem of home mortgages, so that Congress can justify and additional 1.5 Trillion in deficit spending.

    And finally, expect to see huge rate increases from GA Power, as President Obama seeks to bankrupt one of the nations largest coal users.

  4. debbie0040 says:

    Debbie is upset that Alabama is ranked number one in BCS. It is a jinx to be ranked number one. You lose within two games..

    Tomorrow will tell who is right about the election… I don’t believe the polls for a minute..

  5. Doug Deal says:

    My predictions:

    Obama 311 EV 50% (just shy of a majority)
    McCain 227 EV 48%

    The margin in VA, PA, and OH is extremely close and nearly throw the election to McCain.

    The “Bradley effect” shows a -4 effect on the final margin. Only it is not a “Bradley Effect” it is actually flawed methodology by pollsters who over-predicted youth and black turnout while under-predicting the habitual voters.

    Senate: Republicans have 42 seats, Democrats have either 57 or 58 depending on how you count Lieberman.

    House: Republicans lose 14 seats

    Goddard defeats Marshall by a recountable margin.

    Saxby is in a runoff with Buckley getting 5.5 percent.

    People watch in awe on the morning of Nov 5, as my predictions all come true.

    Even though I think Obama will win, I think his winning chance is only about 80%, as I think McCain has a 20% chance of surprising in enough states to make up for losses in places like Colorado.

  6. North Ga Indy says:

    My predictions:

    State House/State Senate:
    Jill Chambers wins
    Allen Freeman loses
    James Mills wins
    Jeanette Jamieson loses
    Charles Jenkins loses
    Rick Crawford loses
    Doug Stoner loses
    Bill Cowsert wins
    Barbara Reece wins
    Katie Dempsey wins
    Carl Von Epps wins
    Jerry Keen wins

    Court of Appeals:
    Edenfield wins

    US Senate:
    Chambliss wins

    McCain carries GA 54%-43%, wins presidency 50%-48% or 273-265. McCain picks up only Pennsylvania. Obama only picks up Virginia.

  7. envirodawg says:

    North GA Indy: You really believe that the Republicans pick up 3 seats in the house, while only losing 1 seat, making it a net gain of 2 seats? And they pick up a seat in the senate? No offense, but I don’t even think the head of the Republican party believes that will happen.

  8. Doug Deal says:

    I would have to add that Obama has made a huge mistake attacking coal considering the fact that the polls have tightened in Pa and Va and it is a big issue in OH, PA and VA. McCain eeking out these states at the last minute could turn the election on it’s head.

    My dad lives right in the heart of coal mining country, and these voters are overwelmingly Democratic, losing any of them is a direct benefit to McCain.

  9. debbie0040 says:

    South Carolina will not have a new head coach.
    They are bowl eligible this year. They are lucky to have Spurrier..

  10. Decaturguy says:

    North GA Indy is smoking some of that same crack that Debbie’s got, apparently.

    What’s a good sign that McCain knows its over? He’s spending time in East Tennessee today not Pennsylvania.

  11. Chris says:

    McCain wins, has a heart attack, and Sarah Palin is inaugurated as the 44th President of the United States.

    Markos explodes into flames.

  12. GOPeach says:

    In Cobb-

    School Board –

    Linda Crowder Eagle – wins
    Ron Younker – wins
    David Morgan – wins

    State House –

    Ed Setzler – wins
    Cindye Coates – wins
    Steve Tumlin – wins

    State Senate –

    Hunter Hill -wins

    Congress-

    Deborah Honeycutt – wins
    Phil Gingrey -wins

  13. Vic says:

    Headlines Wednesday November 5th, 2008

    – “With U.S. Elections out of the way, China forecloses on 520 Billion U.S. debt, appoints Hung Thim Dry as temporary dicatatorial conservator.”

    – “Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro agree to consult on Nationalization of Chinese-U.S. -Chinese Banks and Insurers.”

    -“With U.S. Elections over, 1800 Banks announce closure.”

    -“Heat from U.S. Treasury Printing Presses causes catastrophic Alaskan Glacier meltdown.”

    – “George Bush takes leave of absence, Dick Cheney appointed temporary President.”

  14. debbie0040 says:

    http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=prnw.20081103.CLM078&show_article=1

    Ohio Coal Association Says Obama Remarks Make It Clear: Obama Ticket Not Supportive of Coal

    COLUMBUS, Ohio, Nov. 3 /PRNewswire–USNewswire/ — Mike Carey, president of the Ohio Coal Association (OCA), today issued the following statement in response to just-released remarks from Senator Barack Obama about the nation’s coal industry.

    “Regardless of the timing or method of the release of these remarks, the message from the Democratic candidate for President could not be clearer: the Obama-Biden ticket spells disaster for America’s coal industry and the tens of thousands of Americans who work in it.

    “These undisputed, audio-taped remarks, which include comments from Senator Obama like ‘I haven’t been some coal booster’ and ‘if they want to build [coal plants], they can, but it will bankrupt them’ are extraordinarily misguided.

    “It’s evident that this campaign has been pandering in states like Ohio, Virginia, West Virginia, Indiana and Pennsylvania to attempt to generate votes from coal supporters, while keeping his true agenda hidden from the state’s voters.

    “Senator Obama has revealed himself to be nothing more than a short- sighted, inexperienced politician willing to say anything to get a vote. But today, the nation’s coal industry and those who support it have a better understanding of his true mission, to ‘bankrupt’ our industry, put tens of thousands out of work and cause unprecedented increases in electricity prices.

    “In addition to providing an affordable, reliable source of low-cost electricity, domestic coal holds the key to our nation’s long-term energy security – a goal that cannot be overlooked during this time of international instability and economic uncertainty.

    “Few policy areas are more important to our economic future than energy issues. As voters head to the polls tomorrow, it is essential they remember that access to reliable, affordable, domestic energy supplies is essential to economic growth and stability.”

    The Ohio Coal Association (OCA) is a non-profit trade association representing the interests of Ohio’s underground and surface coal mining producers. The OCA represents nearly 40 coal producing companies and more than 50 Associate Members, which include suppliers and consultants to the mining industry, coal sales agents and brokers and allied industries. The Ohio Coal Association is committed to advancing the development and utilization of Ohio coal as an abundant, economic and environmentally sound energy source.

    SOURCE Ohio Coal Association

  15. chattaelauchee says:

    true, southern company will raise energy prices, but we all know it’s not b/c they’re simply “passing it on to the consumer”

    why not call a spade a spade? southern company is FAR from being transparent about their accounting methods. a supposed tax hike on them via environmental regulation is a red herring. wake the f*()&K up.

    god help us georgians.

  16. Chris says:

    Game Fan,

    It includes a knife, some rope, duct tape and a condom.

    You can get them from less reputable pharmacies in the urban areas.

  17. GOPeach says:

    Hunter Hill will take out Stoner – hide and watch!

    He makes Stoner look like a little wuss that needs his butt kicked by an American soldier.

    Stoner – token on the wacky liberal weed –
    Hill – armed and dangerous with RIGHT ideas.

  18. Icarus says:

    The only way Saturday’s game could have been worse is if Enya had been backing up Vern Lundquist.

    And as for Spurrier, I didn’t say he would be fired.

  19. Icarus says:

    chattaels,

    Your candidate says he’ll bankrupt coal utilities, and you believe that it’s non-transparent accounting that will be responsible for rate increases?

    And you think I’m the one that needs to wake up? That’s pretty rich.

  20. BubbaRich says:

    Doug:

    Obama didn’t attack coal. That is a cute attempt in desperation, though. I bet it won’t work, and you and McCain get a lot of credit for not pushing Obama on spending cuts instead of trying to out-tax-cut each other. I haven’t even heard the wingnuts on radio and FoxNews try to push spending cuts. Occasionally they’ll whine about them, but they don’t sell them big as better policy.

  21. Truthteller says:

    Bubba Rich, How is it that Obama didn’t attack coal again?

    Please explain how this wasn’t an attack on the coal industry.

  22. Doug Deal says:

    Truthy,

    It’s the way it always works for people wearing Democratic blinders, just lie confidently enough and hope no one is smart enough to know the difference.

    Obama wants to punish the hard working coal miners of this Pennsylvania and Virginia, and also punish Ohio, which gets most of it’s energy from Coal, by raising heating bills through the roof.

    Higher taxes in a bad economy. Higher energy prices in a bad economy. More government spending in a bad economy. It’s Obama’s three pillars of successfully destroying the US economy.

  23. ChuckEaton says:

    Icarus-

    I think you’re dead on in your assessment that energy costs will go up substantially under an Obama administration.

    There are basically 3 forms of fuel for major electric baseload capacity: Coal, Natural Gas, and Nuclear. We are encouraging biomass, solar and wind (wind is tough in Georgia), but none of these technologies come close to meeting the states forecasted growthrate of 1,000 mw a year (which is basically one nuclear power plant).

    So when a Presidential candidate comes out in favor of an energy policy that, “if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it’s just that it will bankrupt them because they’re going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that’s being emitted”, you’ve essentially taken coal off the table as a viable future option.

    That leaves gas and nuclear as the only two options for major baseload going forward and sends a message to the nuclear industry to raise their manufacturing rates.

    As far as looking backwards, Georgia is heavily dependent on coal. We’ve instituted a number of environmental measures, some costing more than the original plant, to try and reduce emissions. Obviously the measures raise rates, but they’ve gone forward for a cleaner environment.

    But if his energy proposal is implemented, with a strategy of “bankrupting” coal genreration, the amount we’ll have to raise our rates will be astronomical. I’m worried what it will do for citizens who are already having trouble paying their electric bills and a manufacturing base that is having trouble competing against countries with much cheaper power.

    http://www.wvrecord.com/news/215679-coal-official-calls-obama-comments-unbelievable

  24. jsm says:

    McCain wins in a “shocker” by virtue of older yellow dogs who just couldn’t bear to pull the lever for Obama.

  25. Icarus says:

    I think the only “shocker” involved will be the sensation felt by those who are voting for both Obama and Martin hoping to get a more fiscal conservative government.

  26. ChuckEaton says:

    As a follow up, it makes for great rehtoric to “aggresively charge” the power companies for coal use, but most folks probably understand that “aggresively charge” is another word for “tax” which will be directly passed on into our electric rates as a prudentialy recoverable cost.

    When it comes to future energy gowth there is no easy answer. Every option has its negatives. Which is why we need a diverse mix of conservation, traditional energy and renewable energy. To retroactively try and bankrupt the coal facilities in states heavily dependant on coal, will have catastrophic effects on our economy and our ability to meet electricity demand. Forcing our hand on technologies, such as wind and solar, which don’t currently have the capability to meet major baseload requirements would be a big mistake.

  27. Icarus says:

    Don’t forget Chuck, the same guy that wants us to move to electric cars doesn’t want us to use coal or nuclear electricity.

    I guess we’ll only drive when the wind is blowing and the sun is shining.

  28. Tea Party says:

    I have always believed what JSM just said. . .

    NatGas deregulation in GA created cost-shifting from large industrial users to residential users.

    This was brought to you by the team of enviro-centrists and big business. Politics makes for strange bedwetters and all…

    I predict that if Obama is elected, all of Amercia will suffer what Georgia has suffered under de-regulation. We could try to use some of the CO2 capture techniques and build newer, clean coal plants, but then that makes sense.

    Will it be “Dewey WINS!” all over again (As this writer hopes) or will we have history rewritten?

    I predict McCain wins per the JSM Effect…not only yellow dogs feel that way, as PA shows us.

    I predict Jill Chambers wins handily over young Mr. Huttman, despite Dunwoody angst and a rapid recent hard rise in gay male support.

    I predict Martin will lose by 23%.

  29. LoyaltyIsMyHonor says:

    “Hunter Hill will take out Stoner – hide and watch!”

    I’d agree with you if it were any other year (ie, any year that Obama isn’t running), but the numbers just aren’t there this year.

  30. atlantaman says:

    McCain 50%, Obama 48%, Other 2%

    Saxby 49%, Martin 46%, Buckley 5% – Saxby wins with 55% in the runoff

    McDonald 45%, Powell 45%, Libertarian Guy 5% – McDonald wins runoff with 58%

    McGuire and VonBreman in runoff, McGuire wins runoff – have no clue on percentages.

    Jacobs wins because opponent is an independent – had she been a Democrat he loses in this Obama year.

    Chambers / Huttman – no clue.

  31. Progressive Dem says:

    Tina Fey holds the the Old Testament for Al Franken’s swearing in

    Obama 340 Electoral Votes and 54% popular
    Dems net 8 senate seats

  32. MiddleGeorgiaVoter says:

    Hey Erick,

    How do you think Freeman hangs on in GA House 140? Everyone I have talked to in Twiggs, Wilkinson, & Jones are for Epps.

    I’m with NorthGAIndy, I think Freeman goes down. Honestly, I would be very surprised if Freeman won.

  33. Chris says:

    TP, that’s a pretty hefty margin of victory for Saxby.

    FWIW, Intrade had McCain taking GA at 78 and Saxby Winning GA at 72.

  34. Obama wins with around 311 EV’s.

    Saxby wins in a runoff due to external forces coming into the State.

    Goddard beats Marshall by a slim, slim margin due to turnout in Houston.

    Ted Stevens get’s to legislate from a jail-cell.

  35. Game Fan says:

    My natural gas “marketer” is based in TX. What a farce. It’s the same stinky stuff coming through the pipes. And more late fees too. Is there anything “natural” about this?

  36. rugby fan says:

    Grift:

    You missed LINDA, who was on here a few years ago.

    Openly advocated segregationist policies, had even more bizarre paranoid thoughts.

    Icarus–care to guess which party she belonged to?

  37. The Goddard race is going to be undoubtedly close, just like the Collins/Marshall race of 2006 – except this time there hasn’t been massive spending by both sides.

    I have heard many a time about how Marshall first ran his campaign in 2002 out of his basement, figuring the district was about 40% yellow dog democrats. He concluded he needed about 10-20% of the minority vote to succeed and courted that vote.

    I think Congressman Marshall underestimated the race this year, took it a bit for granted and let Goddard slip up on him. It is ultimately going to come down to turnout out. Having walked in multiple counties, blogged, and phone banked for Goddard, I am a bit biased in terms of who I would like to win. There will not be winner until there is a recount, it will be a good ole fashioned nail-biter.

  38. Muscadine says:

    Erick is letting his heart or perhaps his pocket book influence his predictions. No way Jamieson loses or Freeman wins. It will not be a good night for Republicans. The good news for the GOP is that State House Republicans will finally wake up and have the resolve to purge themselves of Glenn Richardson as speaker. Some had thought or hoped that he would change his ways. But Hope is not a strategy.

  39. Truthteller says:

    Rugby Fan writes:

    “Grift: You missed LINDA, who was on here a few years ago. Openly advocated segregationist policies, had even more bizarre paranoid thoughtsIcarus–c.are to guess which party she . belonged to?”

    Rugby, Farrakhan calls for the separation of races. And Sharpton works his hardest for it.

    Care to guess which party THEY belong to?

    and who has more public support from their party-“Linda”, the anonymous racist? Or Farrakhan/Sharpton, who are overt racists?

    You, sir, are a race baiter.

  40. atlantaman says:

    Speaking of Obama and energy, I was listening to him in a radio interview last night. He wants to do some kind of progressive pricing for energy where the price you pay is tied into how much you make. For instance if you’re poor or on fixed income your electricity is cheap, but if you’re rich your electricity is expensive to encourage you “to turn the lights off when you leave your home.”

    I’ve heard about these progressive pricing ideas from those on the far left and they scare the hell out of me. I know it’s been experimented a bit with pharmaceuticals and now he’s tossing out the idea for energy.

    Can you imagine a country where you get a special government issued coupon book in the mail every month and the coupons are based on your income. You present the “coupons” for everything you buy, from gasoline to groceries. If you’re rich, say with and income over $100,000, you don’t get any government “coupons”.

  41. Tea Party says:

    @Chris: Tongue in cheek 23% play on the ABSURD initial ad that Martin ran referring to Saxby’s support of the Fair Tax as a 23% ‘tax increase.’

    DNC came in with a ‘better’ ad to replace the poppycock Mr. Martin chose to foist on us. I guess Mr. Martin feels most voters are dumber than a bag of hammers.

    God Bless the Union

  42. atlantaman says:

    Grift-

    You act as if there has never been a riot due to something as mundane as a sporting event or Rodney King. It’s really not that unreasonable, or unprecedented, to think there could be some rioting – after an Obama win or loss.

  43. Decaturguy says:

    Atlantaman,

    Go look up GOPeach and y’all can hide in her bunker for the next 4 years just in case you come into contact with someone with dark skin during that time you can avoid it.

    The reason your party is losing is because you’ve run off everyone except the racists, the anti-immigrant activists, and the hard core religious fanatics.

    Y’all have a good time there.

  44. Tea Party says:

    @Decaturguy “Hate is NOT a family value.”
    You must not be ‘frum heah’. Dude, relax.

    Have a high grav at The Brick, (Shameless plug for the finest pub in Decatur, for all those not familiar with the local scene)

    Let’s at least wait until the ACTUAL results are in before we start the GOP Bashing Gala, shall we? Each Party has its’ ugly extreme edge, exacerbated by the 5 companies that run whats left of our ‘fourth estate’.

    @Chris. Yeah, that’s it!

  45. MiddleGeorgiaVoter says:

    Muscadine // Nov 3, 2008 at 8:57 pm

    “Erick is letting his heart or perhaps his pocket book influence his predictions. No way Jamieson loses or Freeman wins. It will not be a good night for Republicans. The good news for the GOP is that State House Republicans will finally wake up and have the resolve to purge themselves of Glenn Richardson as speaker. Some had thought or hoped that he would change his ways. But Hope is not a strategy.”
    ****
    I hope you are right about Freeman & Richardson. I will take a conservative Democrat (Epps), who is a good man, over a self-serving Republican (Freeman) any day of the week. Hopefully Richardson will be out & Ralston in.

  46. North Ga Indy says:

    I just voted. I voted for:

    John McCain

    Saxby Chambliss

    H. Doug Everett

    Bubba McDonald

    Nathan Deal

    Rachel Ellen Pruitt

    John “Dr. John” Raber

    Bruce M. Edenfield

    Michael A. Chastain

    Stroud Stacy

    Brandon Reynolds

    Johnny Ariemma

  47. North Ga Indy says:

    Sorry Chris. When I came up with that name, I was getting my influence from Sleaze State Project.

  48. Eff The Dems says:

    Someone needs to start a thread titled “Decaturguy is an Effing Moron” for his accusation that Karen Handel is an “idiot” for issuing a statement regarding the law prohibiting businesses from giving out free items in exchange for a voter displaying proof of their voting.

    Once again, the effing dems demonstrate how much they hate laws and having to follow them.

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