35% Of Early Voters In Georgia African American

by Decaturguy on October 28, 2008

Those are the statistics from the Secretary of State as of today.

If those numbers hold through Election Day, Obama wins Georgia.

In Georgia, outside of predominately white liberal districts, the magic number of African-American voters for a Democrat to have a chance is about 30%. That way, only about 25-30% of white votes need to cast a vote for the Demcoratic candidate.

Being such, Pollster.com has now moved Georgia to a “tossup” state (it leaned Republican just a couple of days ago). Even Mississippi and McCain’s home state of Arizona are no longer solid red anymore.

{ 61 comments }

rugby fan October 29, 2008 at 11:29 am

Bill:

This isn’t attractive?

http://www.jesus-is-savior.com/Womens%20Page/she_men_1.jpg

Don’t let the URL fool you.

Bill Simon October 29, 2008 at 11:55 am

“This isn’t attractive?”

To each their own, Rugby. At least…until Obama’s “structural feminists” become in charge of what men can ogle.

Doug Deal October 29, 2008 at 12:07 pm

rugby,

I don’t think either side is doing to well. Would you select any of these people to be in charge of your company or oversee your retirement as a trustee, or take care of your children if you died? I have no illusions that any politician is looking out for my interest, or is going to fight for me, or will do the right thing unless a bright light is there to make sure his activities are fully transparent.

But, the tightening national polls have to come from somewhere, but there has been little evidence of that in the state by state polls. So then where is the support coming from? If the total is not equalling the sum of the parts, either the parts are wrong or the total is. Historically national polls are more accurate than state polls, which are only slightly better than a dart thrown at a board. But, I am not willing to trust either. In the end, some poll is going to claim to be the most accurate, but that is only because the spread in polls, along with the margins of error, have the range of a 52-48 McCain victory to a 61-39 Obama victory all covered. I would hardly consider that accuracy.

We might wake up with Obama winning 49 states, we might wake up to a McCain squeaker, or anything in between. Anyone who says that they know which one it will be does not fully appreciate the problems in polling this year, particulary when there is still a week to go and last minute movement happens in a great number of races.

Even in 2006, at least 3 Senate seats were to close to call all night long, and a handfull more could have been classified that way based on final polling. A great number of house seats were that way as well (there were 2 here in Georgia alone).

The election is still an eternity away, and stranger things have happened.

Doug Deal October 29, 2008 at 12:08 pm

Rugby,

I forgot to add. And if you didn’t hate women, you would know this.

odinseye2k October 29, 2008 at 12:23 pm

“Would you select any of these people to be in charge of your company or oversee your retirement as a trustee, or take care of your children if you died?”

I’d definitely let Obama run my business. He seems pretty good at keeping personnel together and focused. He also keeps his eyes open and watches for strategic problems and shifting conditions. Definitely CEO material.

Bill Simon October 29, 2008 at 12:29 pm

YAY! I’m SO happy! I finally drove ANOTHER Dem OFF my mailing list with today’s latest slam on Jane Kidd.

Decaturguy wussied out of the list! Whoo-hoo!

Icarus October 29, 2008 at 12:30 pm

You slammed Jane Kidd?

How much did each of you have to drink for that to happen?

Bill Simon October 29, 2008 at 12:37 pm

Icarus…so, you are not on the PV subscriber list???

Bill Simon October 29, 2008 at 12:38 pm
OleDirtyBarrister October 29, 2008 at 12:41 pm

What percentage of the population in Georgia is black? Something like 38-40% now?

It doesn’t appear that the 35% number is even commensurate with the general population statistics.

Doug Deal October 29, 2008 at 1:05 pm

Georgia is 30.29% Black, and 67% white non hispanic.

If it was 40% black, there would likely be no Republicans elected statewide.

Another thing of note is that the median age for blacks is slightly lower because the life expectancy is several years shorter. This means the population curve has a higher proportion of blacks under the age of 18 then among the white population, skewing the numbers for eligible voters slightly more.

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