35% Of Early Voters In Georgia African American

Those are the statistics from the Secretary of State as of today.

If those numbers hold through Election Day, Obama wins Georgia.

In Georgia, outside of predominately white liberal districts, the magic number of African-American voters for a Democrat to have a chance is about 30%. That way, only about 25-30% of white votes need to cast a vote for the Demcoratic candidate.

Being such, Pollster.com has now moved Georgia to a “tossup” state (it leaned Republican just a couple of days ago). Even Mississippi and McCain’s home state of Arizona are no longer solid red anymore.

61 comments

  1. Obama won’t get 100% of the African-American vote – he’ll get something like 92% – 95%. Every Black vote for McCain means another White vote Obama needs.

    Turnout will be extremely high and certainly African-American Democrats are enthused by their candidate but McCain still wins Georgia.

  2. Doug Deal says:

    If you vote in early voting, you can’t vote on election day (unless you work for ACORN). That may just mean fewer blacks vote on election day, and may not point to a trend at all.

    You Democrats would be better served with more humility. People who claim victory in advance have a nasty habit of being disappointed.

    You may very well win every state in the union and retroactively win Florida in 2000, but if you don’t, your overly confident facade will look like a bunch of foolish bluster.

  3. Decaturguy says:

    I’m not declaring victory, just raising the question. I have no idea if the high black voter turnout in the early voting is going to be a trend that will be the same on Nov. 4th or not.

    All I’m saying is that if it does hold, McCain and Chambliss are in big trouble in Georgia.

  4. Jane says:

    There would need to be around 40% black turn out to secure an Obama victory. Perdue easily won counties with a black turn out of over 35% two years ago.

    On the other hand, Saxby should be worried. Mainstream conservatives are more angery at him then they were with Purdue.

  5. SOWEGA_GOP says:

    If Georgia goes Obama, then everyone can go to bed early next Tuesday night. I do not think Obama will carry Georgia. However, I have been wrong before.

  6. Harry says:

    Does this mean Mickey Mouse can vote from different park benches?

    COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) – A federal judge in Ohio has ruled that counties must allow homeless voters to list park benches and other locations that aren’t buildings as their addresses.

    U.S. District Judge Edmund Sargus also ruled that provisional ballots can’t be invalidated because of poll worker errors.

    Monday’s ruling resolved the final two pieces of a settlement between the Northeast Ohio Coalition for the Homeless and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner.

    The coalition agreed to drop a constitutional challenge to Ohio’s voter identification law until after the Nov. 4 election. In return, Brunner and the coalition agreed on procedures to verify provisional ballots across all Ohio counties.

    The coalition was concerned that unequal treatment of provisional ballots would disenfranchise some voters.

  7. rugby fan says:

    Because homeless people shouldn’t be allowed to vote.

    Seriously though, where else would they list? By definition, they have no home address. If they are citizens they have the right to vote.

  8. Harry says:

    Anyway, it really doesn’t matter if McCain manages to edge out a win or not – demographic trends are pulling this country more towards the Democratic party every year. We Republicans are resigned to be the minority opposition. We can reminisce about the principles of individual liberty and limited government that once made this country great as the Democrat politicians lead it into third-world status.

  9. rugby fan says:

    “We can reminisce about the principles of individual liberty and limited government that once made this country great as the Democrat politicians lead it into third-world status.”

    Didn’t Republicans start that trend around January 10th of 2001?

  10. rugby fan says:

    And if “drink that koolaid” is directed towards me, allow me to say I will drink that pro-democracy koolaid.

    Let me ask you Harry: why do you want to deny citizens their right to vote?

  11. Harry says:

    Some of them did, yes. We may be the permanent minority party but I hope we’ll get rid of the RINOs and corrupt opportunists and purify ourselves and be a contrast to the stinking Democrats. Otherwise, I’m outta here.

  12. rugby fan says:

    That’s fine.

    Tell me then how you allow homeless people, who have no home addresses, to vote. Because right now, all you are advocating is something that denies voting rights.

  13. Harry says:

    Let me ask you Rugby: why do you want to make it possible for those fine, upstanding Democrats to stuff the ballot boxes with votes of deceased and no-show homeless? You don’t think it happens?

  14. Early Voting may not have the same turn out as general election, this is not indicative of anything. The same trend may not exist next week, and we won’t know until then.

    I’m not entirely sure all of these people will vote against Saxby as well. We know incumbency is a hard thing to topple, and I’m not sure the Obama surge will knock him out.

    As far as homeless voting, it is a sticky situation. Unfortunately some votes have to be suppressed in order to prevent fraud – this is a problem, but we can’t just start letting every single person vote. It creates problems. Technically no one is afford a “right” to vote, as the Constitution only mandates that the right shall not be infringed upon several criteria. The assumption is that we all have a right, but it’s vague. My question is, how do we allow homeless people to vote without risking massive voter fraud? People like to complain but rarely do we see practical solutions.

    I’m all ears.

  15. Bill Simon says:

    Harry, I’ll bet Rugby wants to stop people from having to show ID when they buy alcohol. Something about “The right to buy beer shall not be infringed…”

  16. rugby fan says:

    Amazing that it happens all the time and yet A) Democrats still lose elections and B ) you would think the Republicans would finally have a case proving this and bankrupting the Democratic Party and making America a single party state.

    Now, I do think it is imperative that America prevent voter fraud and I do think stuffing the ballot box undermines the system. However, it is a more egregious assault on our democracy to deny an American the right to vote.

    I’d expand on that thought much more if I wasn’t so tired. Just trust me on that one.

  17. Harry says:

    “I do think stuffing the ballot box undermines the system. ”

    But yet, it happens. Why won’t Democrats allow video cameras in polling places?

  18. Why don’t we just embed circuits in people and make that a requirement to vote?

    You know full well that if cameras were allowed in polling places someone would abuse them, and then we would just have another problem. If we are going to Big Brother government, let’s just take the leap and not all the aggravating half-done steps.

  19. Harry says:

    Will have to agree to disagree on cameras. They are know to have a preventive effect around banks, convenience stores, schools, etc.

  20. Rick Day says:

    Will being a “Republican” become as quaint as being a “Whig”?

    I hope so. The way YOUR LEADERSHIP has f-ed up the country and handed the mess to Democrats to further send the country into ruin, I pray (well, not prayer the way you all think) your special brand of Christian butt-kissing follow the way of the buggy whip.

    You all laughed at Ron Paul; the only true conservative in the bunch.

    Who is laughing now, losers?

    Gaaaa we are doomed!

  21. That’s a mighty large blanket statement there Rick.

    Harry,

    What happens when a corrupt poll worker turns the camera into the booths and sees how you voted? They have preventative effects in other places, but putting them next to a “secret ballot” is dangerous.

  22. John Konop says:

    Agree or disagree with Obama this video was very touching! Obama will more than likely be our next President. I disagree with Obama on issues but I am proud that America could elect a black man named Obama.

    I do think if wins this could put aside the glass ceiling and affirmative action issue in our country. The GOP needs to embraces minorities who agree with them not alienate them.

    Video

  23. The Comma Guy says:

    The “homeless” should use the same address that they use when applying for federal benefits. They had to list some address for the monthly check to arrive. That’s their address for voting purposes.

    Race aside, I’d like to know what percentage of folks who have voted early are unemployed, disabled, and retired. Most of us who work for a living can’t take a day off to go stand in line to vote.

  24. odinseye2k says:

    “Unfortunately some votes have to be suppressed in order to prevent fraud – this is a problem, but we can’t just start letting every single person vote. It creates problems.”

    That’s pretty much conservative philosophy right there. If some people slip through the cracks, that’s totally cool, just so long as we make sure that some random person doesn’t get lucky and win something from the system he/she hasn’t “earned.” We can’t just let every single person have a job or every single worker have a living wage. Some slacker might get to join in the prosperity, too.

    “Race aside, I’d like to know what percentage of folks who have voted early are unemployed, disabled, and retired. Most of us who work for a living can’t take a day off to go stand in line to vote.”

    If it’s 1.2 million people in a state of 9.5 million, then the Bush economy really does suck. I’m also trusting this will be your stance on Nov. 4?

  25. Bucky Plyler says:

    I think early voting is good. It has proved that everybody can vote in compliance w/ Ga. law without having their voting rights diluted.

    If you are looking for exceptions to the rule, the Comma Guy has a valid point about how to handle that exception.

    In fact, voting rights have been strengthened anytime voters have been verified to be eligible & legal.

    Conservatives came up with these changes.

  26. odinseye2k,

    I said I’m all ears to alternatives that would decrease the present problems and prevent more problems.

    That’s pretty much the liberal philosophy right there, let’s be all idealistic and attack anything that isn’t perfect without offering any concrete solutions.

    All I hear is about how Republicans have “stole” elections, yet when the same people are so willing to make voter fraud an easier task. I’m all for letting everyone vote, but not if it is going to create more voter fraud problems. Offer some alternatives and we’ll hash it out.

  27. rugby fan says:

    “Offer some alternatives and we’ll hash it out.”

    I do wonder what would happen if there were cornea scanners or fingerprint scanning that could be used? What if the scans never matched up with a name? All you would do is say if two finger prints matched up, no voting for you.

  28. rugby fan says:

    And about the cameras, in addition to potentially being used to monitorvotes, the other problem with them is that it doesn’t catch voter fraud. One would have to watch what would be thousands of hours of tape to find the same person voting twice.

    Next idea.

  29. Game Fan says:

    The Democrat party is the party of socialism, lower standards, and “Democracy” a.k.k mob rule. We’ve seen efforts to allow convicted felons and illegal aliens vote. So for Dems. to preach off their soap box is a sick joke. Hope? Na. just revenge. Acorn is a criminal institution staffed by folks in the halfway house filling out registration cards out of the phone book. Building a movement through lies and deception is cheap and phony just like Obama. get off your high horses. Look at the company you’re keeping.

  30. rugby,

    To a degree that would work. I’m just waiting on someone to come crying about “creating an undue burden” on people who do not have fingerprints in a database already. We have arguments about getting free ID cards, I can’t wait to see the arguments about fingerprints/cornea records. But overall that is actually an idea that would work and help solve the problem – as long as we don’t kill each other over it.

  31. Game Fan says:

    Of course some will vote as Democrats and are lifelong Democrats. Hey no problem. I’m talking about the people who have fallen under Obama’s spell and they don’t even know why.

  32. Game Fan says:

    Now many at least THINK the Republican party is the party of small government, low taxes, rule of law, and Constitutional protections. Way to go Republicans. We followed the think tanks and the experts and the lobbyists straight into the sewer.

  33. Bill Simon says:

    John,

    So, ANY “black man” would do for you to satisfy your internal white guilt?

    I would vote for Herman Cain for President…I would vote for JC Watts for President…I would vote for Michael Steele for President…all 3 of them are black….BUT…I will not EVER vote for a black left-winger.

    I know, I’m a “racist” in your half-witted mind.

  34. odinseye2k says:

    “I said I’m all ears to alternatives that would decrease the present problems and prevent more problems.”

    The purple finger (fingerprinting) idea would be a good one … I’d suggest using something like the left pinky to try and minimize concerns about building up a massive surveillance database.

    There’s also a lot that can be done with information technology (especially now that Georgia does everything with electronic machines) to get all the proper databases cross-referenced. There’s probably also some artificial intelligence required to make sure that “John Doe” and “John A Doe” and such things can be assigned probabilities of a match with the voter able to verify themselves.

    The only problem I can imagine with homeless votes is a concern over voting in multiple districts or precincts?

  35. The problem with homeless is the fact that some of them have no address, and therefore have no ID. If we loosen address requirements they could potentially get around in some areas and vote twice or more. There is also the problem of people buying their votes easily, but we know we can’t ever solve that.

    The thumbprint thing would work, as long as it was the State and not the Fed running it. It would also prevent criminals from voting.

  36. Doug Deal says:

    Over the last couple of weeks, I have been researching the polls (current and past), and found an interesting discrepancy.

    Generally in a poll, blacks would be 80D-10R-10? in the polls at this point, but will normally break 92D-8R in the election. Currently, the polls are pretty much around 95R-3D-2?. That means that in a normal poll in a state like Georgia, the polls would have 30% x 80% = 24% raw support from the black candidate alone, but will get 27.5% of raw support in the final election.

    This year, there is no such election day boost that will cut Obama’s way in that regard, since there is no inflated GOP support, or inflated undecided. Could this add to the uncertainty of the final numbers (3.5% in this case, 1.5% in Ohio or the average state)?

    Further, the last state by state polls in “battleground” states over the last two Presidential election, have been off by an average of 5% from the actual result. For 2/3rds of the time they under-reported Republicans and 1/3 of the time underreporting Democrats for an average of about 1.5% over-reporting of the Democrats.

    Lastly, each poll reports a M.O.E of 2-4%, depending on the sample size. This, of course, is not a measure of the error in the spread, but on the individual support numbers. The error in the spread is actually double, since the two numbers are not independent. (If they were independent, then a reduction in Obama support would not mean an increase in McCain support). So that means 4-8% raw error on the margin of victory.

    Taking these into account does not lead one to conclude with any form of certainty that Obama has it nailed down. It may be likely, but the over-confidence from his camp and his supporters is unwarranted.

  37. rugby fan says:

    The Republicans have never had a chance of winning this election.

    The GOP and Republican label is in absolute tatters. McCain has been a god-awful candidate. He picks a VP who is an absolute joke and no one takes seriously in addition to alienating voters.

    Oh, and then the economy tanked.

  38. Doug Deal says:

    rugby,

    Of course, you state it and it is true. You need to put away the crack before the crack puts you away.

    Just because you hate women doesn’t mean that Palin is a joke.

  39. Doug Deal says:

    rugby,

    And note, I say that just to get under your skin, much in the same way that you seem to post things like the above.

    Just throwing out dismissive comments about certainties that you have no way of knowing makes you look like a hack. “The Republicans never had a chance to win this election”? Really? Obama is outspending McCain 4-1, McCain is a hapless nincompoop, and McCain was in the lead until and exaggerated economic crisis shifted 5 or more points Obama’s way. Even then, it is still not out of reach; no matter how certain you are about the outcome.

    But if you didn’t hate women, you would understand that.

  40. drjay says:

    why can’t we dip our finger in indelible ink like they did in iraq a couple of years ago??

    that would not infringe on anyone’s rights and would surely make it harder to “vote early and often”

  41. jkga says:

    Ronald Daniels-

    I don’t see how anyone can buy a homeless person’s vote. They could pay that person to vote, but with a secret ballot how could they know who got that person’s vote? It doesn’t make any sense.

    On the other hand, it’s easy to see how you could buy someone’s vote with mail-in absentee ballots, for which the GOP has favored loosening restrictions. (Older people who tend to vote GOP prefer mail-in.) That’s why I call hypocrisy on the GOP for the whole “prevention of voter fraud” argument for tougher ID restrictions.

  42. rugby fan says:

    Doug:

    That is somewhat misleading. McCain has only led the race once, for a few days, which immediately followed the GOP convention and naming Sarah Palin (who is a joke. Even the people handling her are saying she is “a whack job” and unqualified &c. &c.) as VP, which routinely give candidate bumps in the polls.

    Now, the right leaning RCP says Obama has a 154 vote lead in the Electoral College. Perhaps he isn’t doing too well nationally. He has to do something monumentally egregious to lose the election with that sort of lead. Moreover, Obama’s trend lines in every poll average, in every swing state, have been on the upswing since the middle to end of September, while McCain has only declined. A couple outliers here and there wrongly suggest a tightening of the polls but there is no reason to believe McCain could overcome his deficits.

    And this is to say nothing at all of the increase in voter registration for the Democrats, while Republicans have lost number of registered members nationwide.

    Ultimately though, if you saw the 2006 elections, you would know, Republicans aren’t doing to well at all. Not the label, not the policies, not even their tactics have worked for three years. So unless partisanship is deluding you into thinking McCain still has a chance, you can clearly see, the Republicans never had a shot. Hell, even Erick Erickson has already conceded the election, to say nothing of the top elected officials within the Republican Party

    Maybe this is an overblown downturn in the economy (I can’t seem to think of anyone seriously looking at the situation and dismissing it so casually). However, voters always flat out reject the incumbent party which, rightly or wrongly happens to be the Republicans right now.

  43. Doug Deal says:

    rugby,

    I don’t think either side is doing to well. Would you select any of these people to be in charge of your company or oversee your retirement as a trustee, or take care of your children if you died? I have no illusions that any politician is looking out for my interest, or is going to fight for me, or will do the right thing unless a bright light is there to make sure his activities are fully transparent.

    But, the tightening national polls have to come from somewhere, but there has been little evidence of that in the state by state polls. So then where is the support coming from? If the total is not equalling the sum of the parts, either the parts are wrong or the total is. Historically national polls are more accurate than state polls, which are only slightly better than a dart thrown at a board. But, I am not willing to trust either. In the end, some poll is going to claim to be the most accurate, but that is only because the spread in polls, along with the margins of error, have the range of a 52-48 McCain victory to a 61-39 Obama victory all covered. I would hardly consider that accuracy.

    We might wake up with Obama winning 49 states, we might wake up to a McCain squeaker, or anything in between. Anyone who says that they know which one it will be does not fully appreciate the problems in polling this year, particulary when there is still a week to go and last minute movement happens in a great number of races.

    Even in 2006, at least 3 Senate seats were to close to call all night long, and a handfull more could have been classified that way based on final polling. A great number of house seats were that way as well (there were 2 here in Georgia alone).

    The election is still an eternity away, and stranger things have happened.

  44. odinseye2k says:

    “Would you select any of these people to be in charge of your company or oversee your retirement as a trustee, or take care of your children if you died?”

    I’d definitely let Obama run my business. He seems pretty good at keeping personnel together and focused. He also keeps his eyes open and watches for strategic problems and shifting conditions. Definitely CEO material.

  45. Bill Simon says:

    YAY! I’m SO happy! I finally drove ANOTHER Dem OFF my mailing list with today’s latest slam on Jane Kidd.

    Decaturguy wussied out of the list! Whoo-hoo!

  46. OleDirtyBarrister says:

    What percentage of the population in Georgia is black? Something like 38-40% now?

    It doesn’t appear that the 35% number is even commensurate with the general population statistics.

  47. Doug Deal says:

    Georgia is 30.29% Black, and 67% white non hispanic.

    If it was 40% black, there would likely be no Republicans elected statewide.

    Another thing of note is that the median age for blacks is slightly lower because the life expectancy is several years shorter. This means the population curve has a higher proportion of blacks under the age of 18 then among the white population, skewing the numbers for eligible voters slightly more.

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